The 13th HWCI NCAA Tournament Pool

HW Basketball Logo 2007 HWCI NCAA Pool Update
Sunday, March 25, 2007
Issue # 12.4.2 "The Real Roy Williams Returns"
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DEFENDING CHAMP ROLLS; HOYAS STORM BACK
Van&Sam not guaranteed money as 17 battle for the 4 spots

CERRITOS, CA (smt)- #1MW-Florida never trailed in the second half but kept letting #3MW-Oregon hang around in securing a 85-77 victory.  The Gators missed 15 free throws but held the Ducks' Tajuan Porter field-goalless til the last minute.  Florida was in control despite never leading by more than nine and become the first defending champ since Michigan St. in 2001 to make the Final Four.

#2E-Georgetown fed off the pro-Hoya crowd in erasing a 10-point deficit with 6:02 remaining with a 30-6 run (regulation + overtime) in knocking off #1E-North Carolina, 96-84.  The Hoyas had gone 5:38 without a field goal but UNC only outscored Georgetown 4-0 in that span.  UNC, partly in parallel, went 8:16 without a field goal as they Hoyas outscored them 13-6 with 1:40 remaining.  UNC curiously took five 3-pt attempts in the last 9 1/2 minutes - all the while not trailing!  UNC, like they did against USC, scored most of the points on the inside, abandoned it when they had the 10-pt lead.  Although UNC tried to go for the kill with a 3-pt attempt leading 75-65, they kept at it.  UNC did make their free throws and made a lot of them, but mistakes let Georgetown back in.  I do give the Tar Heels credit by trying to win instead of trying to score in overtime when all was lost.  UNC was scoreless and could've easily made a layup for token points but instead kept trying for the 3-pt shot, finally making one with 8 seconds left, snapping a 1-for-23 FG spell. 

Which brings us to our good friend, Roy Williams.  The UNC coach has proven the 2005 Championship run was a fluke; an exception to his pitiful past (with Kansas & UNC).  With a second-round exit last year and now blowing a late 10-point lead today and getting blitzed in overtime, he continues to find unique and embarrassing ways to choke.  UNC lost their first Regional Final in eight tries (thanks, Roy!) and had the second longest winning streak for a #1 seed snapped at nine.  In the HWCI NCAA Pool era, UNC made the Final Four in 1995, 1997, 1998, 2000, and 2005.  As you can see, 2007 should've been the year for another Final Four.  Oh, well.

The Final Four seems interesting.  While 7 of the top 8 seeds advanced to the Elite 8, just 2 of 4 #1 seeds remain.  No team has displayed a killer instinct in putting away their opponents while they're down.   Really, the only team in the tourney that had  it was USC when they romped over Texas and then took it to UNC before completely collapsing. 

Twenty-eight went 2-0 (68 picked Florida and 40 picked Georgetown) giving six a perfect Final Four.  In 601 previous entries, only two had done it before (BINGO and PEEPS in 2001).  Unfortunately, WEST COAST BI[L]AS's (24th-Tied, 123) picks were so bad he is the only one of the six with no chance to finish in the top four.  The group once again excelled as the average wins for this round was 2.27, another record (2.08 in 1995).  Eighteen went 0-2 and KRISPY KREMER (83rd-T, 102) became the fourth entry to go 0-for-the-Final-Four this year.

VAN&SAM (150) increased her lead to eight (which is one whole semifinal win) with GO 9ERS! now occupying 2nd place.  VAN&SAM has set a new HWCI NCAA Pool record with her 150 pts (148 by JAYBIAN in 1996) and extends her win record to 53.  Both VAN&SAM and GO 9ERS! are riding a 12-game winning streak.  THAI SPICE (137) fell to a distant 3rd (and can't finish higher than 2nd), 13 pts behind VAN&SAM, with SNOOP'S DOGS in 4th with 136 pts.  We will have a brand new HWCI NCAA Pool Champ as BAKER'S FABONE (moi) (2002 Champ, 10th-T, 132) was eliminated with Georgetown's win (Williams sucks!) and CLAP OR CRAP F.C. (2000 Champ, 22nd-T, 124) can't finish higher than 2nd.

Despite her eight point lead, VAN&SAM is not guaranteed money but has a 7 in 8 shot at it and a 5 in 8 chance for the first place prize of $450.  The 17 entries still alive ties a record set in 2002 and is possible due to all the high seeds remaining.   With eight possible outcomes remaining, it may seem weird that there are 10 chances to win 1st among the five entries.  That's because two scenarios produce a tie in first place, something that has never happened.  VAN&SAM gets at least a tie for first if Ohio St. beats Georgetown.  The interesting one is if UCLA and Georgetown win on Saturday; this produces four different people in the money depending who wins the Final (where UCLA over Georgetown is the only final result where VAN&SAM does not win money).

In the race for the Bonus1, there are just 16 left in the running.  If UCLA wins on Saturday or if Florida wins the championship, we will have a Bonus1 winner.  If Florida loses in the Final, we will have to look at the Bonus2 scenario (total points in final).  No one picked SEC&Pac10 (if Georgetown beats Florida) with 10 wins or SEC&Pac10&Big10 (if Ohio St. beats Florida) with 10 wins so the only winning scenarios are the Pac10 with 11 (Georgetown/Ohio St. beats UCLA)  or 12 wins (UCLA beats Georgetown/Ohio St.) and the SEC with 11 (Florida beats Georgetown/Ohio St.).

         Teams   Curr   Max Poss
 Conf.   Left    Wins    Wins
 ------  ----    ----   --------

 Pac10    1       10       12
 SEC      1        9       11
 Big10    1        8       10

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I can't believe I HAD to root for a Roy Williams coached team...
Scott


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