HWCI NCAA Pool Update

$1,870 TO BE SPLIT 8 WAYS (TOP 7 + BONUS)
Including Bonus, 179 of 187 entries could win money

Only 4 Confernces - all Majors EL SEGUNDO, CA (smt) - In our pool, we do not count any stats from the First Four, thus, in our eyes, the SEC is 15-6, the Big Ten 12-4, the Big 12 10-3, and the ACC 2-3. The SEC got 14 bids with 13 making the proper 64 while the Big Ten started 10-0, a record. The SEC's 7 teams in the Sweet 16 is a record for a conference and all 16 come from the Big 5 conferences (with the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC each having at least 16 teams) for the first-time ever. The Big Ten and Big 12 each got 4 teams in and the ACC only has #1E-Duke. The lowest seed, #10W-Arkansas, comes from the SEC as does #6S-Ole Miss (Mississippi). #6E-BYU, a former mid-major, now represents the Big 12. #4E-Arizona, formerly of the temporarily dead Pac 12, now represents the Big 12.

The Midwest kept its top 4 seeds. #2W-St. John's was the biggest team to fall (against Arkansas) (picked by 7 to win the title) which means we have all 4 #1 seeds and three #2 seeds. There were just 4 upsets in the second round with two #6s beating #3s, a #5 beating a #4, and Arkansas's win. There have been no overtime games but we did get our first buzzer beater (#4W-Maryland over #12W-Colorado St) in two years. Two-time defending champion #8W-UConn only trailed in the second half for about 3 minutes total in two games but fell short against #1W-Florida.

Our 30th year saw 187 entries from 114 people (down by 12 entries and 11 people from last year). Of the 114, 21 entered twice (down 3 from last year) while a record 26 entered three times (up from a record 23 last year). We fell just short of 190 entries so we will only have the top 7 win money. We will have eight money spots (top 7 plus Bonus) and we have $1,870 to divvy out. The top prize wil be be $730, our 3rd highest top prize. The prize distribution is listed below and as always, all entry fee money goes into prizes. What's the Bonus? Read on...

As it has been for the past 20 years, the Conference Wins is the Bonus Prize (as detailed below) (aka, Bonus1). However, if no one wins it, the Bonus2 takes effect and the entry who is closest to the Total Points in Final tiebreaker gets the Bonus Prize. We have used this Bonus to give hope to those who get eliminated early as only those who do not finish in the top 7 will be eligible to win. Rules follow below...

Bonus1 - Winningest Conference

When you completed your online entry and saw your picks (to print out), some of you might have been wondering what the heck "Winningest Conference(s): ?? | Wins: #" meant. And thus, subliminally, you were also picking which conference would get the most wins in the tournament and how many wins that conference would get via your direct picks. Neat, eh? So that output, which in my case (The Fabone XXX), says "Winningest Conference(s): SEC | Wins: 17", means that by the way I picked my bracket (sigh), the SEC (regardless of which SEC teams win) will get the most wins with 17.

The rules of how to win this Bonus Prize is as follows:

1. First Four wins do not count
2. The top 7 finishers are not eligible (so no double-dipping)
3. Ties broken by championship final score total (Total Pts in Final tiebreaker)
4. If there is *still* a tie, money is split
5. If 2 (or more) conferences tie for the most wins, both (or all) conferences must have been picked correctly
6. If entry has 2 or more conferences tied for most wins, only one must be correct to win (e.g. entry picks SEC and Big 12 with 11 wins a piece and the Big 12 ends up winning the most games with 11, then contestant wins)

And, the Bonus Prize is worth $40, which is four years worth of losing brackets (or funds a family of four). Last year, the ACC was the winningest conference with 12 wins. But if no one wins the Winningest Conference, then the Bonus2 takes effect. See below...

Bonus2 - Total Points in Final

If no one wins the Bonus1, then a second Bonus opportunity takes effect. The entry closest to the "Total points in final" tiebreaker wins the $40. In order to reward better play, the tiebreaker is the higher placement in the final pool standings.

The rules of how to win this Bonus Prize is as follows:

1. The top 7 finishers not eligible (so no double-dipping)
2. "Closest" can be above or below actual total (if actual is 144, 143 & 145 are both 1 point away)
3. Ties broken by highest placement (i.e., point total) in final pool standings
4. If there is *still* a tie, money is split

Prize Breakdown

We are officially at 187 entries ($1,870). So, here is the official prize breakdown:

     1st Place = $730.00
     2nd Place = $36.00
     3rd Place = $250.00
     4th Place = $185.00
     5th Place = $ 135.00
     6th Place = $100.00
     7th Place = $ 65.00
     Bonus Prize = $ 40.00

Bonus1 Prize Analysis

What this means is that of the 45 entries that were eliminated from the top 7 prizes, 37 of those entries are back into play! With the Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC still in it, 170 of 187 entries still have a chance for Bonus1. And 179 of 187 (95.7%) have a chance of either the top 7 or bonus.

If you don't have your bracket, then go to the "Your Picks" page and pick your nickname from the drop down box. Because of the First Four, what you see might change (since the ACC's UNC and Big East's Xavier won the First Four game you'd have to add your predicted UNC/Xavier wins to your total) so go to the Bonus page for your official picks. Remember that the First Four wins do not count in the Winningest Conference calculation (that is why the ACC only shows 2 wins and Big East 3 wins below where it really has 3 and 4, respectively). Right now, of the 4 conferences represented in the Sweet 16, 3 conferences have a chance to get or share the most number of wins:

Conference	Teams Left	Current Wins	Max Possible Wins
Southeastern Conf (SEC)	7	15	28
Big Ten Conf	4	12	22
Big 12 Conf	4	10	20
x-Atlantic Coast Conf (ACC)	1	2^	6
x-Eliminated from Most Winningest Conf ^-UNC and Xavier (Big East) wins in First Four do not count

The SEC could send 4 teams to the Final Four. The Big 12 and Big Ten each could send 3 teams to the Final Four. The SEC started with 13 teams and with a #1 Auburn, #1 Florida, #2 Alabama, #2 Tennessee, and #3 Kentucky, led with 164 of 187 entries thinking they would be the winningest conference followed by the the Big Ten with 18 and the Big 12 with 9 (some duplicates). 32 entries each picked the SEC with 20 wins (still possible).

Below are the teams in the conferences that matter for the Bonus1.

Conf.   Teams Left (1st Rnd W-L, 2nd Rnd W-L)
-----   -------------------------------------
ACC     DUKE (1-3, 1-0)
Big12   HOUSTON, ARIZONA, TEXAS TECH, BYU (6-1, 4-2)
Big10   MICHIGAN, MICHIGAN ST, MARYLAND, PURDUE (8-0, 4-4)
SEC     ALABAMA, TENNESSEE, OLE MISS, ARKANSAS, KENTUCKY, TENNESSEE, FLORIDA (8-5, 7-1)

It's much too much to go through all the possibilities with four rounds remaining. But, if you do have a chance, this will guide you to which team to root for based on the conference the team is in.

Here is the link to what everyone picked. If your nickname is in red, that means you're eliminated from the top 7 prizes; if your conference is in red, you're eliminated from the Bonus1. The eligibility for the Bonus2 won't be discussed unless needed.

We are now on Twitter (@HWCI_Pools) and Discord. Please follow! I will post using #hwcincaa mini-updates during the day so you can follow without being on Twitter (and if you are, please use #hwcincaa). Please join our Facebook HWCI NCAA Pool Group. Here you can join the group and meet your competitors, make new friends, set up NCAA watching gatherings, and post stuff to the wall (pictures, witty comments, etc.).

Tids & Bits - the last Big Ten title was in 2000 (Michigan St)... Auburn (Atlanta) and Purdue (Indianapolis) will be playing with some home-town cooking... we have 29 entries that have been with us for 20 or more years (out of 30), 82 for 10 or more years, and 133 for 5 or more years... we have more and more family members joining the fray, expanding the fun... we had just 7 new people join the pool (15 new entries), 5 definitely family members of our old timers... don't despair, Byron W (still Flying Ace) had a 236 in 32,768 (0.72%) chance of finishing in the money in 2015 and ended up winning 6th... of the 29 winners, we have had just four one-and-dones, those who won the pool and never played again (Sean D (Max) in 1997 on his 2nd try, Anna C (Anna Come Lately) (the only entry we do NOT know the last name to) in 1998 winning in her only pool, Karen F (Badzy) in 2014 winning on her 2nd try, and Byron W (Flying Ace) last year winning in his 21st try)... random note: Since we have two Chris C's, the Chris C who is Tiny Prancers is noted as Chris2 C, since he came after the Chris C (who started in 2009) who is Winging It... same with Jeff2 H... Honey Badger 3 is tied for 55th (83 pts) but is eliminated while Ally Zapping and Bizarro Larzby are tied for 179th (64) but still have a chance to finish 2nd (both have Michigan St as champion)... EEChick1400 (like last year when he was tied for 12th (85) but can't win the pool) and Arigato Gozaimasu are tied for 7th but can't win the pool while Captain Illini - 1 is tied for 165th (69) but can still win the pool (Michigan St over Alabama in final)...

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Going on a combined trip - Wichita (where 1st/2nd Rounds were held) & San Jose (where SF Regional will be held)...
Scott