2018 HWCI NCAA Pool Update

NEVADA ARE THE COMEBACK KIDS; ONLY PURDUE SURVIVES
M Star holds onto lead but ChasCroix-2 gets 5 of 8 correct and are 2 of 75 still alive

CERRITOS/GOLETA, CA (smt)- #7S-Nevada was out of gas and down by 22 with 11:36 left but quickly scored 16 straight points in 2:54 en route to a closing 32-8 run to stun #2S-Cincinnati, 75-73. What did I say in my last update? Watch out Cincy. Now the South is without its top 4 seeds in the Sweet 16, the first time a region has done that. Nevada rallied from 14 down in its first round victory over #10-Texas. #1W-Xavier had a 12-point lead with 9:50 left and a 9-point lead with 5:37 left but couldn't hold on as #9W-Florida St 18 of the final 22 points as another #1 seed fell. #11MW-Syracuse held #3MW-Michigan St without a FG in the last 5:43 (missing 13 shots) to rally from five down to become the fourth First Four team to reach the Sweet 16. In the battle of low seeds, #9S-Kansas St managed to beat darling #16S-UMBC despite scoring just 50 points. In this ugly game, the score was 34-33 Kansas St for 3:19 (11:07 to 7:48) and in one 7:15 stretch each team scored just 2 points. In other games, #2E-Purdue, the only top 4 seed to win today, held off #10E-Butler while #7W-Texas A&M (over #2W-UNC), #5MW-Clemson (led by 41 pts over #4MW-Auburn), and #5E-West Virginia (over #13E-Marshall) rolled to easy wins.

There are the same number of 11 seeds left as 1 seeds (2) and the Sweet 16 will feature two 9 seeds, two 7 seeds, and three 5 seeds. There are 4 ACC teams (3 in the MW) and 4 Big 12 teams with the SEC and Big Ten getting two each in the Sweet 16.

For the first time since 2012, we had to remove a few entries due to blatant non-payment. So Bsarty31 (was 65th-T, new and also didn't pay Jason R's pool), SK (was 154th-T, referred by Greg P but never responded), CryingJordans (was 8th-T, veteran but second year of not paying), and Full Metal Bracket (was 104th-T, veteran but second year of not paying) are no more. No one's fortunes really changed that much though CryingJordans really did have a shot at the title. So our official tally is 156 entries (3rd highest) from 108 people (4th largest).

Despite only one top 4 seed winning today, ChasCroix-2 managed to get 5 of 8 games correct (Purdue, #5E-WVU, #7S-Nevada, #9W-FSU, #11MW-Syracuse), two more than the 23 who got 3 of 8 correct. He moved from a tie for 58th to a tie for 4th (78 pts). But M Star (84) still leads by 4 over Bob's Best Bets and 5 over SacKings4Ever. He hopes to build as much of a cushion as possible as he has lost his champ (Virginia) and Final Four team UNC. Five went 10-6 for the round where just 7 of the top 16 seeds advanced. Somewhat surprisingly, only five went 0-for-8 and those five join AirDingus ('14) as the only ones to go winless on the second day of the 2nd round. Big Luther (136th-T, 158) and iWillLose went 4-12 for the round, tying for 2nd worst ever with 8 others. iWillLose is in last with 44 pts, second-worst ever (behind Quickpick McGraw's 42 in '08).

With the second round done, we now know which entries are still alive to finish in the top 6. More than half (81 of 156) were eliminated right off the bat. The 51.9% eliminated far exceeded our previous high of 36.1% ('00). With just 7 top 4 seeds left, there isn't much room for variance in Final Four where entries can pick up points because they did not pick most of the other 9 teams (everyone even). So as you would expect, the 7.2 wins per 16 games in this round was the second worst -- with 2000 (6.9) being the worst. Of the 75 entries still alive, 42 could still win the pool. Among those is BallerDollarCashMoney (114th-T, 61) who had College of Charleston as her champ but since she still has Gonzaga in her final and Loyola-Chicago in her Final Four, has a 3 in 32,768 (0.009%) chance to win first. She also was the only one to pick #16S-UMBC over #1S-Virginia. Who's laughing now? Not my poor second pick Walkure Ga Tomaranai who sits in 136th-T (58) nor my first pick The Fabone 2x4 who has a 0.12% chance to win 5th or 6th. At the top, SacKings4Ever has the best chance to win the pool (17.7%) followed by Bob's Best Bets (13.9%) while the latter has the best chance to win money (46.8% to 44.3%). Current leader M Star has just a 5.2% chance to win the pool and 43.1% chance to win money.

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Tids & Bits - In the proper 64, the SEC is 8-6, the Big East is 5-5, the Big 12 is 8-3 (one team in Sweet 16), the ACC is 9-5, and the Big Ten is 6-2; the Mountain West (2-1), Missouri Valley (2-0), and WCC (2-0) each got one team in... Syracuse only had 3 assists... Kansas St was first team to win with 50 or less points since '84... 2004 was the last time only 2 #1 seeds made Sweet 16... iWillLose only has 1 of 8 Elite 8 teams remaining while 34 have just one Final Four team left... The Downtown Fiction (84th-T, 65) has 7 of 8 Elite 8 teams alive and he and Buckets a la Bitcoin (136th-T, 58) have all four Final Four teams in the field... Gonzaga will try for their 17th straight win on Thursday... the Nevada coach got a technical with 14:16 left (down by 17) but Cincy could only convert 1 of 2 free throws and must have been the spark that lit the fire that'll burn the Bearcats down... so this is no longer the case since we removed CryingJordans, but at one time we have two entries that picked the exact same 63 games (they differ only in tiebreaker total points in final) -- CryingJordans and AlfordBlows (8th-T, 77) will forever be tied together... SacKings4Ever, The Downtown Fiction, and Larzby (11th-T, 75) can each get a max of 145 pts while iWillLose can only get a max of 62 pts... The Gambler 2 and The Swami are tied for 17th (74) but can't win the pool... Cinema for the Blind is tied for 25th (73) but can't win money... BallerDollarCashMoney is tied for 114th but can still win the pool... Martlets and Alyonushka are tied for 114th but can still win money... Team TED (102nd-T, 63) has the longest odds to win money, just 0.04% (12 in 32,768)... PRIDE OF TROY (38th-T, 70) won all 6 games that he still had a Elite 8 team to root for while NAS (111th-T,62) and EMAW (58th-T, 68) had high hopes but each lost five Elite 8 teams that were alive two days ago... don't even want to think about my 5th grader doing better than both my picks in the pool (SpAva (58th-T))... in other 5th grader news, KanUBeatA5thGrader (4th-T) is demolishing his dad (Krispy Kremer, 84th-T)... in other kid news, Buckeye Mike Jr. (38th-T) is also beating his dad Buckeye Mike (64th-T) while Larzby leads his son by just two points (MMMtheBOSS (25th-T) and both outclassing the mom (Suznanna (151st, 51)...

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The following takes place between 9 am Sunday and 9 am Monday. Events occur in real time.

Just watched USC fall apart in NIT 2nd Round in the last minute at home, well at least the Pac 12 went 5-0 in 1st round...
Scott