Tuesday, August 1, 2023 
Issue #6.1.5 "Let's Reset" 
[||| Mini-Updates | Dailies: Jul 30-31 Aug 1 ]

START STRONG, LITTLE DRAMA... EXCEPT FOR USA-PORTUGAL
Hawkeye and Vlatko Better Win take over 1st with 5 groups complete

HOME, CA (smt) --  After 42 matches, Groups A, B, C, D, and E are complete, leaving 10 teams fighting for the final 5 Round of 16 spots.  Needing to win and leave no doubt, B1-Australia (1A) scored in the 9' and whipped B4-Canada, 4-0, in a battle of top 10 teams, A2-Norway (2A) scored in the 6' to demolish A3-Philippines, 6-0, C4-Japan (1C) scored in the 12' to embarrass #6 C1-Spain (2C), 4-0, to top Group C, E3-Netherlands (1E) scored in the 8' to wallop my wife's home country of E2-Vietnam, 7-0, and D1-England (1D) found their scoring touch scoring in the 4' to blow out #14 D4-China PR, 6-1.  AUS, NOR, NED, ENG left nothing to chance with their blowouts while JPN took their few opportunities (8 shots/6 on goal) to win Group C.  D3-Denmark (2D) opened scoring "late" in the 21' to beat D2-Haiti, 2-0, to advance.  In the one match that didn't matter, C3-Zambia scored their first-ever WWC goal in the 3' in beating C2-Costa Rica, 3-1.  So very little drama in these games and spots were secured without any nervousness.

Three scoreless draws were all that was needed to send A4-Switzerland (1A), B3-Nigeria (2B), and E1-USA (2E) into the Round of 16.  But it wasn't that simple, was it?  How could you explain co-host A1-New Zealand, ranked #26, beating #12 NOR, tying #20 SUI and not make the Round of 16, the first-ever host to fail?  Lose to #46 Philippines.  How could you explain #40 NGA reaching the R16?  Beat co-host #10 AUS and tie #7 CAN.  How could you explain SUI not scoring a goal in their last 146 minutes of play and winning Group A?  Yeah, that's unique. 

But how can you explain USA?  It's baffling.  No killer instinct.  Outlet passes too long, too quick to turn the ball over.  Three games, two great goals by Lindsey Horan and two goals by Sophia Smith that went under the legs of 5'-5" VIE goalkeeper.  That's it.  I do still love Alex Morgan, as with one strike she can change the game and with her long legs and speed, create space (like her great flick to Smith for USA's first of 13 goals... er, 3), but her awful PK attempt and just utter exhaustion every time FOX shows her after a shot or run is sad to see.  Needing to outscore NED (who had 7) in a race to win the group, USA didn't even score and if not for the right post, USA would have been down in stoppage time.  USA GK reach was high on the save attempt so if Ana Capeta nudged it a couple inches to the left, it would've gone in under Alyssa Naeher's arm.  Thank goodness.

But the Knockout stage is a different beast, as it is winner-take-all with extra time and penalty kicks shootouts, if needed.  Four wins are what teams will be thinking about to wash out ESP's shocking loss and USA's ineffectiveness.  Reset everything now, the goal of making the Round of 16 is done, now the next stage begins, like in the great Netflix show Alice in Borderland (and manga) where players beat the card games but it only unlocks the next stage of games, the face cards, which will take a different mentality to beat.  Be a goldfish, as Ted Lasso says, and soldier on.

But how unlucky are JPN, who won Group C?  They were "supposed" to play SUI or NZL but now get #12 NOR who faltered.  If they beat NOR, then they would face either #1 USA or #3 G1-Sweden.  ESP lucked out getting to play #20 SUI who hasn't scored in two games and then either #9 NED or #16 G3-Italy/#28 G4-Argentina.  USA has fallen in the odds to win the title with ENG, ESP, and USA each at 4.3:1 with GER 7.5:1, and JPN 9:1 (despite beating ESP 4-0).

After converting just 4 of the first 8 PKs, teams have made the last 8.  Goals are starting to come in bunches as the first 9 games saw just 1.89/game and now it's 2.55.  Ah, 2015 saw heavy criticism of the tactics of then USA coach Jill Ellis for a team that hadn't won a title since 1999 and... USA won the title.  So with all the criticism coming Vlatko Andonovski's way, let's hope for a similar end result. 

That sound you almost heard?  Dozens of brackets being torn up as 46 had USA in the Round of 16 and 26 have them winning it all.  The biggest miss so far is 45 had CAN in the Round of 16.  As each group concludes, up to 8 points can be earned (1 each for two matches, 3 each for two teams advancing) as points will pick up fast and furious as 40 points were earned in the last 10 games (just 32 in the first 32 games).  Remember, you get 3 points regardless if you had USA as 1st or 2nd, but it does play havoc with your bracket later.  Or if you have both SWE and USA in the Quarterfinals, you are guaranteed to get one but not both now.  Thanks, USWMT.

After 42 matches, Hawkeye and Vlatko Better Win (who picked up 33 of 40 pts to move from a tie for 6th) are tied for the lead in the pool with 54 points with three (Kds911, Kona Coast Sliders, More$) tied for 3rd with 53 points. Previous leader Eggman 2 picked up just 29 of 40 pts to drop to a tie for 6th (52).  Tiny Destroyer is no longer last (46th) with 36 pts, as Kung Fu Master Kai takes over last with 35 pts.  Twelve have gotten 9 of 10 R16 teams (no one got NGA) including Merman, who moved from a tie for 43rd to a tie for 26th (47).  Three got 6 of 10.

Will Eric's "Foster's Football Brew" be back this year?  I hope so!  If anyone else wants to contribute, let me know.  Anyone else going to down under and want to send pictures or mini-reports?

The best way to keep up with the pool is to follow @HWCI_Pools on Twitter or visit the #hwciWWC hashtag (you don't need Twitter account to view) often for daily updates.  Less often will be our Facebook group page (post comments or organize viewing parties) and then these newsletters every 4 days or so.

   Ins & Outs - [42 Matches/8 Ties] - Goals: 107 (2.55/match) [Own: 5 (5-CRC>ESP 21', 15-MAR>GER 54', 15-MAR{2}>GER 79', 19-IRL>CAN 45'+5, 34-PHI>NOR 48'), Subs: 12 (6-JPN 90'+11{pk}, 8-DEN 90' {gw}, 14-ITA 87' {gw}, 15-GER 90', 20-ESP 69', 20-ESP {2} 85', 22-NGA 72' {gw}, 27-ARG 79' {gt}, 30-SWE 90'+5, 37-JPN 82', 39-ENG 77', 40-DEN {2} 90'+10), 90+/120+: 8 (6-JPN +11 {pk}, 22-AUS +10, 30-SWE +5, 31-COL+7 {gw}, 34-NOR +5, 38-ZAM +3, 35-AUS +4 {pk}, 40-DEN +10), Extra Time: 0 (-)]... Scoring First: 31-3-2 [6 Nil-Nil ties (4-NGAvCAN, 11-FRAvJAM, 18-SUIvNOR, 33-SUIvNZL, 36-IRLvNGA, 41-PORvUSA); 12-RSAvSWE 1:2, 19-IRLvCAN 1:2, 22-AUSvNGA 2:3]... Leading at Half: 24-0-2 [16 ties (14 scoreless); -]... Shutout: 39 [1-NOR, 2-IRL, 4-CAN, 4-NGA, 3-PHI, 5-CRC, 9-VIE, 6-ZAM, 7-HAI, 8-CHN, 10-POR, 11-FRA, 11-JAM, 14-ARG, 15-MAR, 13-PAN, 16-KOR, 17-NZL, 18-SUI, 18-NOR {2}, 21-CRC {2}, 20-ZAM {2}, 24-VIE {2}, 25-DEN, 26-HAI {2}, 30-ITA, 29-PAN {2}, 32-KOR {2}, 33-SUI {2}, 33-NZL {2}, 34-PHI {2}, 37-ESP, 35-CAN, 36-IRL {2}, 36-NGA {2}, 41-POR {2}, 41-USA, 42-VIE {3}, 40-HAI {3}]... PK: 12/16 [1-nzl (x) 90', 2-AUS 52', 4-can (s) 50', 3-SUI 45', 5-esp (s) 34', 9-usa (s) 44', 6-JPN <retake> 90'+11, 7-ENG <retake> 29', 16-COL 30', 26-CHN 74', 31-GER 89', 34-NOR 53', 38-ZAM 31', 35-CAN 90'+4, 39-CHN {2} 57', 40-DEN 21']... Extra Time: 0 [-]... PSO: 0 (-/-) [-]... Red Card (GF/GA): 5 [4-NGA R 90'+8 (0/0), 6-ZAM 2Y 90'+7 (0/1), 11-JAM 2Y 90'+2 (0/0), 26-CHN R 29' (1/0), 34-PHI R 67' (0/1)]...  Multiple Goals: 13 [Smith 2 (9-USA), Miyazawa 2 (6-JPN), Popp 2 (15-GER), Borges 3 (13-BRA), Hermoso 2 (20-ESP), Redondo 2 (20-ESP), Ilestedt 2 (30-SWE), Haug 3 (34-NOR), Miyazawa 2 (37-JPN), Raso 2 (35-AUS), Brugts 2 (42-NED), Roord 2 (42-NED), James 2 (39-ENG)]... Goal Line Tech: 1 [9-USA xG 85'].. VAR (-Reversal(Taken Away), +Reversal(Added), =Confirmed, xNo Call): 34 [ 1-NOR xHB= 52', 1-NOR xHB+{pk+NZL} 87', 2-IRL xHB= 45', 4-NGA xFoul+{PK+CAN} 48', 4-NGA Y-{R+} 90'+6, 3-PHI xFoul+{PK+SUI} 43', 9-VIE xFoul+{PK+USA} 41', 9-USA Off-{g+} 45'+7, 6-JPN xOff+{g-} 21', 6-JPN xOff+{g-} 49', 6-ZAM xOff+PK-Y= 51', 6-ZAM xEnc+{retake PK+JPN} 90'+10, 7-HAI xFoul+Foul-{PK-} 17', 7-HAI xHB+{PK+ENG} 26', 7-HAI xEnc+{retake PK+ENG} 28', 10-NED Off-{g+} 13', 20-ESP Off-{g+} 70', 20-ESP Off-{g+} 85', 27-RSA Off-{g+} 30', 26--CHN Y-{R+} 28', 26-CHN Off-xFoul+{PK+} 72', 26-xFoul+Box-{n/a} 76', 26-HAI Foul-{PK-} 90'+2, 29-PAN HB-{PK-} 90'+2, 34-PHI xFoul+{PK+NOR} 50', 34-PHI xR+ 63', 38-CRC xOff+{Foul-PK-} 55', 35-AUS Off-{g+} 9', 35-AUS xOff+{g-} 34', 35-CAN xFoul+{PK+AUS} 90'+2, 42-NED Off={xG=} 67', 39-ENG xOff+{g-} 45'+5, 39-ENG xHB+{PK+CHN} 54', 40-DEN xOff+{g-} 4', 40-DEN xF+{g-} 83']... 58%+ Poss (w/in contest): 16 [3-SUIvPHI (65/24) W, 5-ESPvCRC (64/18) W, 9-USAvVIE (59/23) W, 7-ENGvHAI (63/23) W, 12-SWEvRSA (59/27) W, 11-FRAvJAM (60/24) D, 15-GERvMAR (59/22) W, 13-BRAvPAN (61/25) W, 17-NZLvPHI{2} (59/24) L, 20-ESP{2}vZAM (63/23) W, 24-PORvVIE{2} (61/24) W, 25-ENG{2}vDEN (59/27) W, 34-NORvPHI (60/25) W, 37-ESP{3}vJPN (68/21) L, 42-NEDvVIE{3} (67/21) W, 39-ENG{3}vCHN (67/20) W]... Zero SOG (Shots): 6 [3-PHI (3), 5-CRC (1), 9-VIE (0), 6-ZAM (0), 41-POR (5), 42-VIE{2} (5)]... 20+ Shots (S/SOG/G): 12 [5-ESP (46/14/2(1 og)) W, 9-USA (26/7/3) W, 6-JPN (26/11/5) W, 13-BRA (33/9/4) W, 21-JPN {2} (25/11/2) W, 20-ESP {2} (22/13/5) W, 22-AUS (27/7/2) L, 24-POR (28/9/2) W, 30-SWE (20/7/5) W, 29-JAM (20/4/1) W, 34-NOR (30/12/5(1 og)) W, 42-NED (43/17/7) W]... Breaks (>30 min): 0 [-]... Regions (Teams/R16/QF/SF/F/C): UEFA (12/6) 17-8-7, AFC (6/1) 7-10-0, CONCACAF (6/1) 3-9-4, CAF (4/1) 3-4-3, CONMEBOL (3) 3-2-1, OCEANIA (1/-) 1-1-1... Match Order of Play: RR: 1-2 | 4-3-5 | 9-6-7-8 | 12-10-11 | 14-15-13 | 16¹-17-18 | 21-20-19 | 23-24-22 | 27-25-26 | 30-28-29 | 32-33-34^A-31² | 37-38^C-35-36^B | 41-42^E-39-40^D | 45-46^G-43-44^F | 47-48^H | R16: 49-50 | 51-52 | 54-53 | 56-55 | QF: 57-58 | 59-60 | SF: 61 | 62 | 3rd: 63 | F: 64 ]...  

   Qualification (Advance, Group Winner, Elim, G-Group):  B-IRL (19-L)... C-ESP (20-W), C-JPN (20-ZAM L), C-ZAM (20-L), C-CRC (20-ESP W)... E-VIE (24-L)... G-SWE (30-W) | F-PAN (29-L)... A-SUI (33-D & 34-PHI L), A-NOR (34-W & 33-NZL D &GDvNZL), A-NZL (33-D & 34-NOR W & GDvNOR), A-PHI (34-L)... C-JPN (37-W) | B-AUS (35-W & 36-NGA D), B-NGA (36-D), B-CAN (35-L & 36-NGA D)... E-NED (42-W & 41-USA D), E-USA (41-D), E-POR (41-D) | D-ENG (39-W), D-DEN (40-W & 39-CHN L), D-CHN (39-L), D-HAI (40-L)...

   SIDES 'N KICKS:  first-time WWC teams are 4-17-1 (PHI, VIE, ZAM, IRL, HAI, POR, MAR, PAN) (1 win due to two debutantes playing each other PORvVIE)... Group A finished before Group H played their last second stage match... ESP had 925 passes to JPN's 265 but just 10 shots... JPN had no CKs... NZL, needing to win, only managed 3 shots (2 on goal)... ZAM's second goal, a PK, was the 1000th goal in WWC history... VIE and HAI ended their debut performance with no goals... NOR had two players who scored a brace... NED scored four goals in the first 23 minutes eliminating any thought at the time USA could finish first on goal differential... ENG followed two narrow 1-0 wins with a 6 goal outburst... in Wellington (NZ) (JPNvESP) it was very windy with GKs having trouble judging high balls in the air... JPN scored in their first three forays into the box on clinical finishes... ZAM scored the earliest goal in this WWC (2:11)... AUS's legendary Sam Kerr continues to be a decoy, listed on the bench but never was going to be used, as she missed all 3 games with an injury disclosed only hours before the first match... USA was 10-0-0 against POR outscoring them 39-0... VIE had two games with no shots on goal... despite a couple of hat tricks so far, JPN's Hinata Miyazawa still leads with 4 goals... CHN is one of 3 teams with no yellow cards (SWE, JPN) but are 1 of 5 teams with a red card... POR had no shots on goal, but oh, that post... VIE had, unofficially, 22 saves (18 by 5'-5" Tran Thi Kim Thanh)...

Locally in AUS/NZL, on Sunday, with Groups concluding, you now get the 3 points per R16 team; Group A saw 23 get both SUI and NOR into the R16 while the other 14 got just 1 of 2; all 47 got NOR's win and 9 got the SUIvNZL draw correct; five entries got the full 8 points in Group A while 19 got just 4 points; for the whole day (Groups A and H), five entries got 8 points and 13 got 4 points; Eggman 2 is still in first (31) with Hawkeye second (29)... on Monday, Group C concluded with Kds911 the only one to pick both JPN and ZAM to win and with 46 having ESP in R16 and 45 JPN, the only one to pick up all 8 points in Group C; 31 went 0-2 and three just got ESP or JPN, but not both.  44 got both; leader Eggman 2 and last place Tiny Destroyer each only got 3 of 8 points; Group B concluded with BigRedMessiUSA and More$ the only two to get both AUS's win (picked by 20) and CRC-NGR draw (6);  23 went 0-2; all 47 had AUS (barely) in their R16 but no one had NGR (45 lost CAN), meaning BigRedMesssiUSA and More$ got 5 of 8 points in Group B while 23 got 3 of 8;  combined, Hawkeye and Vlatko Better Win are tied for first with 39 points with six tied for 3rd with 38... on Tuesday, Group E concluded with only Rutin4Putin (45th, 40) getting the USAvPOR draw; 43 picked NED's win as 43 went 1-1 and 4 went 0-2; all 46 who had USA in the Round of 16 had them as 1E, not 2E, but it doesn't matter as it is 3 points regardless and the downside is your bracket is now upside down; 42 had NED in R16 as 41 got both R16 teams and 6 got 1 of 2; 39 got 7 of 8 possible points while Of-Course-it's-US (40th-T, 43) only got 3 of 8; Group D concluded with 35 getting both ENG (picked by 36) and DEN (44) wins while TroJenn (40th-T) and TroJenn2 (40th-T) missed both; 46 had ENG in the R16 and 31 DEN with 31 getting both and 16 getting 1 of 2; 25 got all 8 points in Group D while TroJenn and TroJenn2 only got 3 of 8; combined, 23 got 15 of 16 possible points while Rutin4Putin and Kung Fu Master Kai each got 8 of 16; Hawkeye and Vlatko Better Win are still tied for first with 54 points with Kds911, Kona Coast Sliders, and More$ tied for 3rd with 53; Kung Fu Master Kai takes over last with 35 points...

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Japan is so joyful to watch, but when they take their foot off the ball with a lead, boring...
Scott