Friday, December 16, 2022 [Rev A - Corrected Poss]
Issue #10.2.5 "I'm Condemned to Use the Tools of my Enemy to Defeat Them"
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2022 FIFA Men's World Cup Final - Lusail Iconic Stadium - Lusail
1978   |   1986	vs.	1998   |   2018
ARG - La Albiceleste Asociación del Fútbol Argentino (AFA) Confederación Sudamericana de Fútbol (CONMEBOL)		FRA - Les Bleus Fédération Française de Football (FFF) Union of European Football Associations (UEFA)
#3 | C1 | Group C Winners | 4-1-1 6th Final ('30, '78, '86, '90, '14) C1: Lost #53 Saudi Arabia 1-2 C4: Beat #13 Mexico 2-0 C5: Beat #26 Poland 2-0 R16: Beat #38 2D-Australia 2-1 QF: Beat #8 1A-Netherlands 2-2 (4-3 PSO) SF: Beat #12 2F-Croatia 3-0		#4 | D1 | Group D Winners | 5-1-0 4th Finals ('98, '06, '18) D1: Beat #38 Australia 4-1 D4: Beat #10 Denmark 2-1 D6: Lost #30 Tunisia 0-1 R16: Beat #26 2C-Poland 3-1 QF: Beat #5 1B-England 2-1 SF: Beat #22 1F-Morocco 2-0

FAVORITES OUTSMART UNDERDOGS

Which three will join Soccerbix, KevLo and/or SoccerWife in money

CYPRESS, CA (smt) -- Underdogs and Cinderellas were creating havoc in the tournament but then the favorites wised up and played their game, using the tools of their enemy to ultimately defeat them.  1F-Morocco had not had more than 37% possession in any of their five matches but 1D-France allowed MAR to have the ball (55% possession) and while MAR had excelled on counter-attacks in previous matches, this time it was FRA who  picked their spots to apply pressure in the box as deflected shots led to both goals in their 2-0 semifinal win.  1C-Argentina who had jumped to a 2-0 lead in their 5th straight match, did not want to give up goals like they did in the past two matches, and conceded possession to 2G-Croatia (54%), playing CRO's game, and eventually found a back-breaking 3rd goal to win 3-0.  Both MAR (who had defensive injuries which hampered them) and CRO should have been content to play for a 0-0 draw or an opportunistic goal here and there, but FRA and ARG turned the tables and baited them into taking the possession which FRA and ARG capitalized on.

The oddsmakers have basically put this game as 50/50 but the heart of bettors is on ARG.  The over/under is 2.5 goals which is slightly lower than the tourney average of 2.63.  ARG has jumped to 2-0 leads in 5 straight matches but have played just one top 10 team (#8 NED) while FRA finally had a clean sheet but have beat two top 10 teams (#5 ENG, #10 DEN).  ARG will try to become just the 2nd team to win the WC after losing their first match (Spain in '10) while FRA will try to become the first back-to-back WC winners since Brazil ('58 & '62).

The 3rd place match, played since 1954, which some teams take as pride (Turkey winning 3rd in 2002, Germany have won 3 of 4) and some as a burden (Brazil getting trounced 3-0 in 2014 at home and England falling 2-0 after a magical run (0-2 overall)).  It will be less special since CRO and MAR already played in their first Group F matchup in a 0-0 draw.

While Fernando B (Soccerbix) is safe to win his 2nd HWCI WC Pool ('98) (he did pick ARG) and Kevin L (KevLo) and Amy M (SoccerWife) will either be tied for 2nd (ARG win) or 5th (FRA win) (one will go empty handed), Adam C (AC in Doha), Jim M (Merman), and Keith J (Unlucky) hope to ride Messi's first WC title to 4th or 5th (one will go home empty handed).  But a FRA 3rd title will give Sidra B (2 Goals 1 World Cup), Eric C (Kona Coast Uno), and David C (Redhat Dave) 2nd, 3rd, or 4th depending on the total goals in 3rd & Final tiebreaker. 

For the $40 Bonus, UEFA will be the winningest region with either 8 (ARG) or 9 (FRA) wins.  Some will be rooting for a scoreless draw in the 3rd place match while some will hope for a goal fest.  With the tournament average at 2.65 goals/match, two matches would be 5.3, or round to 5 goals which would make Alonso R (No Fue Penal) happy if ARG wins and a quartet of entries (each would win $10) if FRA wins.

A little history of our World Cup pool (Euro pool history here): 

	In 1998, the most popular sport begged for some type of office pool.  It was our first opportunity after starting the HWCI NCAA pool in 1995 and after the successful USA-hosted event in 1994.  This was the first year FIFA went to 32 teams which was perfect and the points awarded actually matched the max you could get in our NCAA pool (196 points).  There was no WC office pool that I could find where you pick everything at once (no break for knockout stage) so everything was custom.  What is unique about our pool is you get points if your team makes each stage of the Knockout stage, not if you got it in the right order (e.g., didn't matter if you picked FRA was winner or runner-up, you got the points).  Entry was by paper (same 1-page form we still use in 2022) and how to do standings/updates was in flux.  In addition to the total goals tiebreaker (same one we still use in 2022), we had a 2nd tiebreaker where people chose which 4 groups the 3rd place winner would come from.  Also, picking ties was not an option (not implemented until 2014 after successful feedback from Euro 2012 pool) as we wanted to people to pick a side and it was complicated to implement at the time.  We got 21 entries (our 1998 NCAA pool had 28 entries) from 19 people.  In addition to my record 40 updates, we had 13 issues of "Not-so-deep Thoughts" by Fernando B.  9 of the top 11 finishers came from UEFA with host FRA winning their first title 3-0 over defending champ BRA ending with the most goals (15) and best goal differential (13).  BRA and GER were picked the most (6) to win it all.  USA crashed hard to dead last (#32) which prompted Fernando to halt his commentary for a while.  But he did win the pool (Le Bix, 1 of 3 who to 3 semifinalists and only one to get both finalists) with 135 points ($115) while Bob G (MLSBob), who got 27 of 32 non-tied group stage matches correct (as did Luis Enrique's Armada), took 2nd ($55), Scott T (Socker Scooter), who was the only one to pick FRA, took 3rd ($25), and Nadine W (Naw'deen) from Mauritius took 4th ($15).  3 got 14 R16 teams correct and 4 got 7 of 8 quarterfinalists.
	In 2002, the first co-hosted WC took place and first in Asia, which prompted lots of overnight and early morning matches (10:30 pm to 4:30 am).  This was the first online entry where we used the NCAA 64-team bracket to mimic the Round of 16 knockout stage.  So there was a 2-stage process, enter on web form the group stage, submit, and go to the online bracket, and submit.  We got 23 entries from 23 people (first time no multiple entries from a person).  BRA won their record 5th WC and just 3 entries picked them (most popular was ARG with 9). GER started beating KSA 8-0 but had to squeak by with 1-0 wins over PAR, USA, and KOR before losing 2-0 to BRA in final.  Top 2 favorites ARG (picked by 9) and defending champ FRA (picked by 4) both failed to make the R16 (all 23 entries had them both qualifying).  USA rebounded from '98's debacle to somehow made the knockout despite losing 3-1 to POL in last match and actually made the QF, beating MEX 2-0 in R16.  The Asia WC saw both co-hosts JPN and KOR making R16 with KOR making semis (as did TUR).  All 3 who picked BRA finished in the top 3 with Tina M (Puna) taking the pool ($110, 102 pts) with Patrick D (Danny Boy, $60), Omar D (Dimples, $40), and Bernice P (BerniSam United FC, $20), who got 5 of 8 QFs, taking 2nd/3rd/4th.  Rocky Mtn Soccer got 27 of 34 non-tied group matches correct, 3 got 12 of 16 R16 teams, just 10 got 1 of 4 SFs (hard with TUR, KOR, and depleted GER), and 4 got 1 of 2 finalists.
	In 2006, GER had high hopes with the WC in their country and after surprising everyone by making the final in 2002.  Online entry remained the same 2-stage process as we got a record 44 entries from 37 people.  This was the first year Sam N had his daily newsletter, this one called "Clap! or Crap?" and ran for 25 issues.  Ben S contributed a behind-the-scenes look at producing TV coverage for the WC (1st time in widescreen HDTV).  ITA came up (picked by just 3 entries) and beat FRA in the PSO (1:1 (5:3)) (after a bizarre head-butt by Zinedine Zidane on ITA in Extra Time ejected him).  BRA (13) and GER (7) were the favorites but were ousted in the QF and SF, respectively.  USA crashed and burned in Europe again losing to GHA (after tying ITA 1-1 for some hope) finishing with 1 pt (tied for 25th).  Cynthia R (Elastigirl), who got 7 of 8 QFs, won the pool after the 1st semifinal (2 matches to go) (our 2nd female winner) and finished with 140 pts ($220) and Marco R (Nico) took 2nd ($110) as both had ITA winning it all.  David F (The Mighty Mobelfakta), 1 of 5 to get 14 of 16 R16 teams, and Scott T (Futbol Fabone) won 3rd ($70) and 4th ($40), the latter winning his 2nd money spot ('98 3rd).  AS Vaffancula was the only other one to pick ITA but finished 7th, 4 points off 4th place.  Eek got 3 of 4 SFs but go no points after that.  7 got 1 of 2 finalists.
	In 2010, the WC headed to Africa for the first time and host RSA became the first host to not make the knockout stage though they did have 4 points but lost to MEX on GD.  Online entry remained the same 2-stage process as we got a record 66 entries from 56 people (including our first two triple entries).  Sam N continued his daily commentary, this one called "Pando! or Gordo?" and ran for 29 issues.  After getting shocked 1-0 to SUI to open the tourney, ESP became the first team to win the WC after losing their first match, besting NED on a 116' goal in extra time, 1-0.  USA got a miracle 90'+1' goal against ALG to not only qualify but win Group C.  Unfortunately, another African team killed the dream as GHA won 2-1 after extra time in the R16.  Defending champ ITA finished dead last in Group F, even behind NZL.  #105 PRK not surprisingly finished dead last at #32 (-11 GD).  Though BRA, who lost in QF to NED, was the most popular pick (24), 20 did choose ESP which propelled Joseph D (Forza Pazza), who got 26 of 34 non-tied group matches correct (as did El Oso), to 132 points and the win ($310), Albert H (Corner Kick Kid) to 2nd ($160), and Joseph T (Dime 23) to 3rd ($100).  With the total goals tiebreaker at 6 (5 in 3rd place, 1 in final), Damian C (Former MLS Writer) and Fernando B (Soccerbix) tied for 4th, splitting the $60 prize, our first tie.  Stephen R (Big Tex) got the first-ever $40 Bonus (getting Group H wins with 4) and having the higher placement among 3 who got this (wanted to do the Regions (confederations) but forgot and kept the old method which was automated to calculate which group(s) had the most wins for each entry).  4 got 13 R16 teams correct, 5 got 5 QFs, LB the only one to get 3 SFs, and 6 got both finalists.
	In 2014, FIFA returned to Brazil for the first time since 1950.  Sam N provided biting commentary for the 3rd time with 28 issues of "Pando! or Gordo?".  Eric F, who was in Brazil, followed his Euro 2012 coverage with 4 issues of Foster's Football Brew.  Online entry was upgraded to a single form (for both group and knockout stages) which was good as we got a record 75 entries from 60 people.  For the first time, you were allowed to pick TIEs for the group stage.  The surprise decision to not include Landon Donovan already created controversy for USA and POR's Cristiano Ronaldo, of all people, scored against GHA so USA can back end their way into the R16 while losing to GER.  Then in the R16, BEL peppered Tim Howard with 38 shots forcing him to make 16 saves in a 2-1 extra time loss which could've been a win except for a Wondo open shot skied high late in regulation.  Being the host, BRA was picked by 35 but they got shellacked in the QF 7-1 by GER (picked by 10) and then trounced by NED 3-0 in the 3rd place match.  ARG was picked by 16 but lost to GER 1-0 after extra time in the final (Mario Goetze goal in 113').  8 entries had a chance (4 if GER won, 4 if ARG won) but GER's win gave Tim H (EEChick1400) the title with 132 points ($345).  2006 champ Cynthia S (Chiquillos), who got all 4 SFs, took 2nd ($180) and Tim H became the first person in either NCAA or soccer pool to win twice with 2 different entries in the same pool by taking 3rd (EEChick) ($115).  Frank C (Frank From Seattle) took 4th ($70).  $40 Bonus was changed to Winningest Region and no consideration for placement as Bob G (On Striker) won with 4 total goals picked and UEFA with 8 wins (his 2nd win, 2nd '98).  Gandhi United got 32 of 48 group matches, Win It All got 13 R16 teams, and 10 got both finalists.
	In 2018, in a scandal-plagued dual vote in 2010, Russia and Qatar were selected for the next two hosts. Eric F, reporting from Belgium, came back to provide 5 issues of Foster's Football Brew commentary.  We got a record 79 entries from 52 people.  FRA (picked by 4) returned to glory to beat Cinderella CRO, who had played 3 straight extra time matches (2 going to PSO), 4-2 in the final.  BRA (23) and GER (22) were overwhelming favorites with BRA losing in QF and GER (last in Group F) not even making it to the R16.  ITA, NED, and USA (epic collapse on last day of Hexagonal) did not even make the tournament.  The R16 featured a BEL rally over JPN, an epic 4-3 FRA win over ARG, and ENG winning a rare PSO.  FRA's semifinal win gave Mike W (Walleye), who was 1 of 2 to get 3 SFs, the pool title ($355, 124 pts) with 2 matches to go.  Eric F (BigRedSquare) and Ford R (Sacre Les Blues) took 2nd ($190) and 3rd ($125).  Fernando B (Sokkerbix), who was 1 of 3 to pick a low of 17 group stage matches but 1 of 18 to get 14 R16 teams, took 4th ($80), his 3rd win (1st '98, 4th-Tied '10).  With 6 goals in the final 21 minutes of the final made the total goals tiebreaker 8 and gave Roy W (Krispy Kremer) the Bonus getting UEFA with 13 wins over 2 others.  Kds911 and Toshiyori got 31 of 48 group matches correct, 18 got 5 QFs, and 18 got FRA in final.
	In 2022, tiny Qatar became the first Arab nation to host the WC with all 8 stadiums within 34 miles of each other so one could attend all 64 matches.  With the summer heat, FIFA moved the WC to the late fall/winter interfering with all the domestic leagues (except MLS, of course).  Following COVID-19, rosters were expanded from 23 to 26 and subs from 3 to 5 (plus 1 in extra time plus any concussion subs).  Eric F, who was in Buenos Aires, provided 2 issues of Foster's Football Brew while nervous about his ARG.  Despite a November pool, we got a record 109 entries from a record 72 people which added a 5th place prize for the first time.  Once again, no ITA (won 2021 Euro) but USA and NED returned and faced each other in the R16, with NED winning 3-1.  USA allowed WAL to tie 1-1 and played ENG to a scoreless draw.  Needing a win, USA got a first-half goal that held up against IRN without Gio Reyna, one of USA's best players but had a feud with the coach.  BRA (33) and ARG (31) were overwhelming favorites but BRA lost CRO in PSO in QF.  #2 BEL and GER (2nd straight) failed to make the R16.  There were 6 scoreless ties in the group stage (ended with 7) and 24 scoreless 1st halves in the group stage (ended with 28).  The refs kept more accurate stoppage time so +7-10 minutes were a common sight.  Fernando B (Soccerbix), who got 13 R16 teams as did Tiny Destroyer, became our first repeat champion after FRA & ARG won their semifinals (his 4th win - 1st '98, 4th-Tied '10, 4th '18).  The Gambler 1 got 29 of 48 group matches and 7 QFs (his partly 9 R16 teams doomed him).  Free Merman and Indy Ari got 3 SFs while 12 got both finalists.