Saturday, December 10, 2022
Issue #7.2.2 "So Fat and Satisfied, They Can't Imagine It"
[||| Mini-Updates | Standings | Possibilities | Dailies: 9-10  ]

HEAVY FAVORITES BRAZIL & PORTUGAL STUNNED, ARGENTINA SURVIVES
Indy Ari leads but it's Soccerbix who has clinched money; 16 entries still alive and 6 can win the pool

HOME (smt) -- While nothing is a guarantee, 1G-Brazil and 1H-Portugal were coming off blow-outs where both teams were dancing and smiling heading into the quarterfinals as both thought they had the tourney now figured out (BRA just doing choreographed dances after every goal and POR benching Ronaldo).  When BRA went up 1-0 at the end of first half extra time on Neymar's beauty of a goal, BRA celebrated as if they had won and their second half of extra time was very disjointed.  2F-Croatia capitalized on their only shot on goal in the 117' to stop the dancing and in the penalty shootout, CRO made all 4 to win 4-2.

POR had lots of possession but was stunted by a stingy 1F-Morocco team and a late first half goal was all MAR needed to hold off Ronaldo (who came on as a sub) and team, 1-0.  What is cool is that MAR is now the de facto home team as the Arab powerhouse replacing host QAT, who finished #32 of 32 teams in this WC.

After Lionel Messi scored on on a PK in the 73' to put 1C-Argentina up 2-0 against a 1A-Netherlands team that didn't even have a shot on goal, ARG fans were celebrating.  But in a foul-marred match (18 yellows but only 12 in the field of play), NED pulled one back in the 78' and on potentially the very last play in the 90'+11', NED pulled a trick free kick play that was put in to tie it at 2.  Unlike BRA, ARG actually tried to win the game in extra time and when that was scoreless, came alive in the PSO to hold off NED 4-3. 

The heavy favorites couldn't imagine not easily winning their matches but the badge on the jersey does not mean anything to the opponent.  The only quarterfinal match without a heavy favorite, 1B-England and 1D-France played one of the best games of this WC, one you could show your non-soccer friends how a competitive, up-and-down, mostly-mistake free match (save a couple of knucklehead FRA defenders who gave ENG PKs) looks like.  In the end, although ENG had the better of chances and play, a missed PK (sound familiar, ENG?) (Harry Kane took both, making the first and skying the second above the crossbar) was the margin to allow defending champ FRA to advance to the semifinals, the first defending champ to do so since '98 (BRA who lost in final). 

MAR is the first African team to make the semifinals and still has not allowed their opponent to score a goal (the did score an own goal for Canada) and you forget MAR actually won their group.  CRO makes their 2nd straight semifinal so I guess 2018 wasn't a fluke year.  We are either on pace for an epic ARGvFRA final or an underdog MARvCRO final.  Or a rematch of 2018 between FRAvCRO.  I do love that these multi-millionaire superstars break down after losing because it shows how special the World Cup is.  This is a tournament you are not really paid to play and you wait four years for it, yet players want to win it so badly.  You watch most pro sports and the ones crying are the supporting cast but rarely the superstar.  It is very likely the last WC for Neymar and Cristiano Ronaldo (or at least should be).  It'll be Messi's last but will play two more games regardless (SF and Final or SF and 3rd place).

An amazingly high 16 entries still have a chance to finish in the top 5 money spots, which is crazy (of course, none are mine).  And 6 can still win the pool!  Indy Ari and Free Merman (17th, 99 pts) were the only ones to get 3 of the 4 semifinalists (no one picked MAR) with the former staying in first place with 106 pts.  Soccerbix is tied for 2nd with The Gambler 1 with 105 pts but has clinched at least 4th place which will be his 4th win in 6 WC pools.  FRA pulled Markofthebeast (108th, 64) out of last place as Meli clinched last with 60 pts as 1 of 12 who went 0-4 in the round.  47 entries can't pick up any more points.

Bwakewey 2 and Mimi are tied for 4th (104) but can't finish higher than 4th while Danish Dynamite is tied for 37th (92) but can still win the pool.  Mezlove is tied for 10th (101) but is eliminated while Kona Coast Uno is tied for 47th but can still finish 2nd.  The Final Four possibilities are also listed along with tiebreaker scenarios (some of the 16 may lose out on a tiebreaker for 5th and finish out of the money).  Soccerbix has a 50% chance to win the pool for the second time (1998) and Indy Ari has a 37.5% chance to win the pool.  Five have at least a 50/50 chance for money.

Prize distribution and Bonus Prize details are forthcoming as 69 entries now have a chance to win the $40 Bonus by subconsciously picking the confederation with the most knockout stage wins - it will be UEFA with either 7, 8, 9, or 10 wins.

The best way to keep up with the pool is to follow @HWCI_Pools on Twitter or visit the #hwciWC hashtag (you don't need Twitter account to view) often for daily updates.  Less often will be our Facebook group page (post comments or organize viewing parties) and then these newsletters every 4 days or so.

   Ins & Outs - [60 Matches/14 Ties] - Goals: 158 (2.63/match) [Own: 3 (42-CRO>CAN 40', 44-GER>CRC 70' | 50-ARG>AUS 77'), Subs: 26 (2-NED 90'+9, 3-ENG 71', 3-ENG 90', 11-JPN 75', 11-JPN 83', 15-POR 80', 15-GHA 89', 17-IRN 90'+8, 18-QAT 78', 18-SEN 84', 24-ARG 87', 26-MAR 90'+2, 27-CRO 90'+4, 28-ESP 62', 28-GER 83', 29-CMR 63'43-JPN 48', 44-GER 73', 44-GER 85', 44-GER 89', 46-KOR 90'+1 | 54-KOR 76', 56-POR 90'+2, 57-CRO 117', 58-NED 90'+11, 58-NED 129'), 90+/120+: 12 (2-NED +9, 3-SEN +13, 17-IRN +8 {gw}, 17-IRN +11, 26-MAR +2, 27-CRO +4, 32-POR +3, 40-KSA +5, 46-KOR +1 {gw} | 52-POL +9, 56-POR +2, 58-NED +11), Extra Time: 2 [57-BRA 105'+1, 57-CRO 117' {gt}]... Scoring First: 40-6-7 [7 Nil-Nil ties (8-ARGvKSA, 5-AUSvFRA, 11-GERvJPN, 27-CANvCRO, 43-ESPvJPN, 46-PORvKOR)]... Leading at Half: 24-3-5 [28 ties (26 scoreless); 8-ARGvKSA, 11-GERvJPN, 43-ESPvJPN]... Shutout: 38 [1-QAT, 2-SEN, 6-DEN, 6-TUN, 7-MEX, 7-POL, 12-MAR, 12-CRO, 10-CRC, 9-CAN, 13-CMR, 14-URU, 14-KOR, 16-SRB, 17-WAL, 20-ENG, 20-USA, 21-TUN {2}, 22-KSA, 24-MEX {2}, 25-JPN, 26-BEL, 30-SUI, 32-URU {2}, 36-QAT {2}, 33-WAL {2}, 34-IRN, 38-FRA, 37-DEN {2}, 39-POL {2}, 41-CRO {2}, 41-BEL {2}, 45-GHA, 48-BRA | 51-SEN {2}, 55-MAR {2}, 55-ESP, 60-POR]... PK: 13/19 [1-ECU 16', 3-SEN 90'+9, 4-WAL 82', 8-ARG 10', 7-pol (s) 58', 11-GER 33', 10-ESP 31', 9-can (s) 11', 15-POR 65', 22-ksa (s) 45'+1, 32-POR 90'+3, 35-SEN {2} 44', 39-arg {2} (s) 39', 45-gha (s) 21' | 52-POL 90'+9, 54-BRA 13', 58-ARG {3} 73', 59-ENG 54', 50-eng {2} (h) 84']... PSO: 4 (20/33) [53-JPN:CRO 4.0 (1:3 {ssGs:GGpG}), 55-MAR:ESP 3.5 (3:0 {GGsG:pss}), 57-CRO:BRA 4.0 (4:2 {GGGG:sGGp}), 58-NED:ARG 5.0 (3:4 {ssGGG:GGGlG})]... Red Card (GF/GA): 4 (17-WAL R 86' (0/2), 48-CMR 2Y 90'+3 (0/0) | 58-NED 2Y post-PSO, 60-MAR 2Y 90'+3 (0/0); 30-KOR Coach R 90'+11)...  Multiple Goals: 17 [ [Valencia 2 (1-ECU), Saka 2 (3-ENG), Taremi 2 (3-SEN), Giroud 2 (5-FRA), Torres 2 (10-ESP), Richarlison 2 (16-BRA), Mbappe 2 (23-FRA), Kramaric 2 (27-CRO), Cho 2 (30-KOR), Mohammed 2 (30-GHA), Fernandes 2 (32-POR), Rashford 2 (33-ENG), Havertz 2 (44-GER), Arrascaeta 2 (45-URU) | Mbappe 2 {2} (52-FRA), Ramos 3 (56-POR), Weghorst 2 (58-NED)]... Goal Line Tech: 1 (42-CAN xG 72').. VAR (-Reversal(Taken Away), +Reversal(Added), =Confirmed, xNo Call): 39 [1-ECU xOff+{g-} 3', 4-ENG xFoul+{pk+IRN} 90'+10, 8-KSA xFoul+{pk+ARG} 6', 8-ARG xOff+{g-} 27', 6-TUN xHB= 90'+4, 7-MEX xFoul+{pk+POL} 54', 11-GER xHB{xPK}= 22', 11-JPN Foul{pk}= 31', 11-GER xOff+{g-} 45'+4, 9-BEL xHB+{pk+CAN} 8', 9-BEL xFoul{xPK}= 13', 9-BEL xFoul{xPK}= 38', 15-GHA Foul{pk}= 62', 17-IRN xOff+{g-} 15',  17-WAL Y-{+R} 84', 18-SEN xFoul{xPK}= 34', 19-ECU Off{xg}= 45'+4, 22-POL xFoul+{pk+KSA} 43', 26-MAR xOff+{g-} 45'+2, 28-GER xOff+{g-} 39', 29-CMR Off-{g+} 63', 30-GHA xHB{g}= 24', 31-BRA xOff+{g-} 64', 32-URU xHB+{pk+POR} 89', 36-NED xHB+{g-} 68', 34-USA xOff+{g-} 45'+7, 38-FRA xOff+{g-} 90'+8, 37-DEN Off{xFoulxPK}= 71', 39-POL xFoul+{pk+ARG} 36', 41-CRO xOff+{pk-} 15', 43-JPN xOOB{g}= 48', 44-GER Off-{g+} 89', 45-GHA Off-{URU Foul+pk+GHA} 16', 45-GHA xFoulxPK= 58' | 52-FRA xHB+{pk+POL} 90'+6, 52-FRA GKOffLine{RetakePK}= 90'+7, 57-BRA Off{xHBxPK}= 48',59-FRA xFoulxPK= 25', 59-FRA xFoul+{pk+ENG} 81']... 58%+ (w/in contest): 11 [3-ENGvIRN (72) W, 8-ARGvKSA (64) L, 11-GERvJPN (65) L, 10-ESPvCRC (74) W, 33-ENGvWAL (58) {2} W, 37-DENvAUS (60) L, 39-ARGvPOL {2} (67) W, 43-ESPvJPN (78) {2} L, 44-GERvCRC (61) W | 55-ESPvMAR (68) {3}, 60-PORvMAR (65) L]... Zero SOG (Shots): 8 [1-QAT (5), 10-CRC (0), 14-URU (10), 14-KOR (6), 16-SRB (4), 30-SUI (4), 39-POL (4), 42-CAN (5)]... 20+ Shots (S/SOG/G): 11 [5-FRA (22/7/4) W, 11-GER (25/9/1) L, 9-CAN (21/4/0) L, 16-BRA (24/10/2), 17-IRN (21/6/2), 23-FRA (21/6/2) {2} W, 30-KOR (21/6/2) L, 39-ARG (25/13/2) W, 40-MEX (25/10/2) W, 44-GER (32/11/4) w, 57-BRA (20/11/1) L]... Breaks (>30 min): 0 [-]... Regions (Teams/R16/QF/SF/F/C): UEFA (13/8/5/2) 20-18-14 AFC (6/3/-) 7-12-2, CAF (5/2/1/1) 8-6-4, CONMEBOL (4/2/2/1) 8-4-4, CONCACAF (4/1/-) 3-7-3, OCEANIA (-)... Match Order of Play: RR: 1 | 3-2-4 | 8-6-7-5 | 12-11-10-9 | 13-14-15-16 | 17-18-19-20 | 21-22-23-24 | 25-26-27-28 | 29-30-31-32 | 35-36^A-33-34^B | 37-38^D-39-40^C | 41-42^F-43-44^E | 45-46^H-47-48^G | R16: 49-50 | 52-51 | 53-54 | 55-56 | QF: 58-57 | 60-59 | SF: 61 | 62 | 3rd: 63 | F: 64 ]...  

   Sides 'N Kicks -  Kevin L (KevLo) was inquiring about watch parties (Redondo Beach area) among us so we'll see - it's a great idea... yes, this issue's title is not a title from Star Wars: Andor, but one of its great quotes, of which there are plenty to choose from (hopefully, it will get nominated for a writing Emmy)... my jersey choices:  2014 NED 125th anniversary, 2013 ENG 150th anniversary... there are 7 scoreless draws - there was just one all of 2018... NED extended their unbeaten WC streak to 12 (8-0-4). and are 14-0-6 in their last 20 matches (though this loss hurts)... BRA had their 4th scoreless first half of the tourney... CRO is 4-0 in WC PSO (R16, QF in both 2018 and 2022)... ARG had 10 yellow cards and NED had 8, but just one player (NED) got a red for a 2nd yellow, and that was after the PSO... BRA has lost to UEFA teams in the last 5 WCs... BRA had an expected goal (xG) advantage of 2.56 to 0.62... lots of fouls as ARG had 30, BRA 24, CRO 22, NED 18... of WC record 18 yellow cards (ARG 10, NED 8), just 12 were in the field of play (even one to bench player Wout Weghorst at end of 1st half and later came in and scored 2 goals plus one in the PSO) - 2 to different ARG coaches, 3 to NED during/after PSO (plus a red for 2nd yellow), 1 to Weghorst... ARG has won 8 of the 10 WC matches that have gone to extra time... FRA has allowed a goal in all 5 matches... FRA first defending champ to make semis since BRA in '98 (lost in Final to FRA)... MAR has not allowed an opponent to score yet (their 1 GA was an own goal)... ENG received their 1st yellow card of tourney in 90'...  entries averaged 23.0 wins in the group stage, 10.2 teams making R16, 4.9 QFs, 1.28 SFs... Ronaldo's 196th cap with POR ties the record for most appearances (KUW's Bader al-Mutawa)... MAR's Walid Cheddira picked up two quick yellows in stoppage time and is just the 3rd player to get red-carded during a match (there has been one issued after the PSO (NED) and one to a KOR coach)... Kane's 53rd ENG goal ties him with Wayne Rooney... Olivier Giroud, who just became FRA's all-time scorer, also scored his 53rd goal for FRA... both Group F teams made the semis, and both are lowest ranked teams (#12 CRO, #22 MAR)...

On Friday, 79 had ARG making the QF and 4 had CRO; Three got both (Indy Ari, TripleM, and Free Merman) while 29 got none; Indy Ari moves into first place with 99 points but does have BRA as champion (remember, it doesn't matter how teams get to QF); five are tied for 2nd with 98 pts and there are 38 entries within 10 points of first place; Markofthebeast is still last with 57 pts; BRA's loss means just 10 can now win the pool while 33 are still alive to finish in the top 5; Soccerbix has the best chance to win the pool (28.1%) and money (62.5%); five others have at least a 10% chance to win the pool and six others have at least a 30% chance to win money... on Saturday, no one had MAR in the semi-finals but 57 did pick FRA (and 52 got none); overall, Indy Ari and Free Merman (17th, 99 pts) got 3 of 4 SFs while 12 got none; Indy Ari still leads with 106 points with Soccerbix and The Gambler 1 behind with 105 each; Meli clinched last place with 60 pts as Markofthebeast moved to 108th with FRA's win; Soccerbix clinched at least 4th and has a 50/50 chance to win the pool for the second time ('98)....