Wednesday, July 4, 2018 ***HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY***
Issue #5.2.1 "Just a Tease" (After Round of 16)
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SPAIN, PORTUGAL, MEXICO DISAPPOINT
EEChick1400 and TheComeBacker on top; 28 still alive; Bonus!

WYNDHAM GARDEN VENTURA PIERPONT INN, VENTURA, CA (smt) --  After 2F-Mexico's wins over Germany and Korea Republic, CONCACAF was riding sky high on the Tricolor's chances.  But then the egg against Sweden led to a Round of 16 match against 1E-Brazil instead of 2E-Switzerland and for the seventh straight time, MEX was eliminated in the Round of 16 while BRA won its Round of 16 match for the seventh straight time.  The Iberian powers B1-Spain and B2-Portugal were both expected to go far past their Group A opponents but Ronaldo and POR were stopped by 1A-Uruguay 2-1 and ESP, despite huge advantages on possession, shots, and passes completed, could only muster a 1-1 tie with host 2A-Russia and lost in the Penalty Shootout (PSO), 4-3.  RUS was the 70th ranked team while ESP was the 10th ranked team in the world. 

2G-England shut the door on their PSO curse by beating 1H-Colombia on penalties, 4-3, their first PSO win in five WC and EURO tries.  Great goalkeeping kept the 1D-Croatia and 2C-Denmark PSO interesting with CRO prevailing 3-2 as their GK made 3 saves (DEN's GK made two saves in the PSO plus an Extra Time PK save).  1C-France's youth prevailed over old D2-Argentina in the opening Round of 16 match that was a classic.  FRA scored three times in 11 minutes in the second half to win 4-3.  Each team took just four shots on goal with seven of them going into the back of the net.  1G-Belgium won as expected, but had to rally from a 2-0 second half deficit to upstart H2-Japan with the final goal on a breakaway started by the BEL keeper with seconds left in stoppage time.   The goal was the last play of the match giving BEL a 3-2 win.  We almost saw a #61 team beat a #3 team and kind of reminds me of USA's collapse against Brazil in the 2009 Confederations Cup losing a similar 2-0 second half lead. 

This was the first time there were 3 PSOs in the Round of 16 with all three featuring zero goals in the second half plus Extra time (75 minutes) and with each team kicking first losing in the PSO.  URU finally allowed a goal and along with BRA have only allowed one goal in four matches.  Half the quarterfinalists have not won a World Cup with FRA ('98) and ENG ('66) winning just one and URU (2 titles) having not won since '50.  Only European and South American teams remain.

We now know which entries have been eliminated from the top 4 prizes.  Normally, we do this after the Group Stage is complete but with the loss of my USB drive driving me nuts for a week (and continuing) and old computer to compute 32K permutations, waiting until after the Round of 16 at least gave some people some false hope and with just 128 possibilities, made it easier to calculate who was eliminated.  This is a home grown macro but so far in eight previous pools, it hasn't been wrong yet but it is far from quality testing. 

EEChick1400 and TheComeBacker were 2 of 18 to get 5 of the 8 Quarterfinalists correct and top the standings with 95 points each.  Kds911 and Sir Kyle are tied for 3rd (93) but can't win the pool.  Shants is 5th (92) but can't finish in the top 4.  Blitzkrieg813 and Flying Elvi are tied for 6th (91) and have already eliminated GER as their champ but can still win the pool.  Just 10 can win the pool while 28 of the 79 entries can still finish in the top 4.  Ilvecchio who led nearly all the Group Stage is now tied for 33rd (83) and eliminated.  Toshiyori who tied with the most group stage wins (31) is eliminated in 39th-T place (82).  TheComeBacker has the best chance at first (32.8%) and money (50%) but it's Stillcryin4USA (11th-T, 89) who has the second best chance to win the pool (26.6%).  TroJenn (75th-T, 68) with her ENG pick has just 3 chances in 128 to win money but two of them would win the pool so a lot of things would have to go right besides ENG winning the cup.  Larzby (78th, 61) only picked 2 of the 8 teams correct but it's Tjnunes in last with 59 pts.

But for the 51 entries eliminated, hope may not be all lost.  There is the $40 Bonus.  This is the Winningest Region (analogous to Winningest Conference in our HWCI NCAA pools).   This means that 62 can still win the Bonus and 13 have been eliminated from Money and the Bonus.  Actual possible outcomes will be run after the semifinals are played.  The way the $40 Bonus will  work is that when you picked your Round of 16 bracket, you subliminally were choosing which region would do well in the knockout stage.  Whether you had Spain winning it all or Germany, it still meant you thought a European team would win the tournament.  I've tabulated everyone's picks and the result is now in the updated standings (last column). 

The rules for Bonus1 are:

1. Matches only include the 15 knockout stage matches (no 3rd place match) and wins include penalty shootout victories

2. The top 4 finishers are not eligible (no double-dipping)

3. If 2 (or more) regions tie for most wins, both (or all) must have been picked correctly

4. If entry has 2 (or more) regions tied for most wins, only one must be correct to win (e.g., entry picks UEFA and CONMEBOL with 7 wins each and UEFA is the winningest region with 7 wins, then entry wins)

5. Ties are broken by total goals in 3rd place & final matches tiebreaker pick

6. "Closest" can be above or below actual total (if actual is 5 goals, the 4.5 and 5.5 are both 0.5 goals away)

7. If there is still a tie, the prize is split

If no one wins this Bonus1, then a second Bonus (aka, Bonus2) opportunity will take effect (someone will have to win the $40!).   The only change to the Bonus2, because those with 0.5 are at a disadvantage, the total goals predicted will be doubled and include the two semifinal matches (4 matches total).  Thus, the entry closest to "Total goals in 3rd place and final matches" x 2 tiebreaker will win the $40 (thus, if you chose 3.5 goals as your tiebreaker (2 matches), your new goal total is 3.5 x 2 = 7 goals (4 matches)).  In order to reward better play, ties are broken by higher placement in final pool standings.

1. Matches only include the two Semifinal matches, the 3rd Place match, and the Final match (4 matches)

2. The top 4 finishers are not eligible (no double-dipping)

3. Total goals do not include penalty shootout goals (only regulation and Extra Time goals)

4. "Closest" can be above or below actual total (if actual is 5 goals, the 4 and 6 are both 1 goal away)

5. Ties are broken by highest placement (i.e., point total) in final pool standings

6. If there is still a tie, the prize is split

We have played 8 Knockout Stage matches thus far with UEFA (Europe) winning 6 and CONMEBOL (South America) winning 2.  But since there are 2 matches where UEFA plays UEFA, that is at least 8 wins.  And since those winners will play each other, that means at least 9 wins.  The most CONMEBOL could win is 6.  Thus, UEFA will be the Winningest Region with either 9, 10, 11, 12, or 13 wins.  And since at least one eliminated entry has picked one of these five possible outcomes, someone will win Bonus1 and the $40 that goes with it (and thus, Bonus2 will not be used).

Eric's "Foster's Football Brew", a HWCI EURO Pool staple, is back, already four issues in.  If anyone else wants to contribute, let me know.  Anyone else going to Russia and want to send pictures or mini-reports?

The prize distribution will be detailed at a later date (although eagle-eyed viewers will already have seen the distribution). 

The best way to keep up with the pool is to follow @HWCI_Pools on Twitter or visit the #HWwc hashtag (you don't need Twitter account to view) often for daily updates.  Less often will be our Facebook group page (post comments or organize viewing parties) and then these newsletters every 4 days or so.

   SIDES 'N KICKS:  [56 Matches / 12 Ties] Goals: 146 (2.61/match) [Own: 10 (4-MARvIRN, 5-AUSvFRA, 8-NGAvCRO, 15-POLvSEN, 17-EGYvRUS, 33-RUSvURU,  42-SUIvCRC, 44-MEXvSWE, 46-TUNvPAN, 51-RUSvESP), Subs (incl. Own): 12 (1-RUS 70', 4-MAR {og} 90'+5, 29-BEL 90', 30-ENG 78', 32-JPN 78', 35-IRN 90'+3, 36-MAR 81', 36-ESP 90'+1, 42-SUI 88', 50-ARG 90'+3, 54-BEL 74', 53-BRA 88', 54-BEL 90'+4),  Stoppage: 19 (1-RUS +1, 1-RUS +4, 4-IRN +5 {GW}, 14-ENG +1 {GW}, 23-CRO +1, 25-BRA +1 {GW}, 25-BRA +7, 27-GER +5 {GW}, 28-KOR +3, 29-TUN +3, 34-KSA +5 {GW}, 35-IRN +3 {GT}, 36-ESP +1 {GT}, 42-CRC +3 {GT}, 43-KOR +3 {GW}, 43-KOR +6, 50-ARG +3, 54-BEL +4 {GW}, 56-COL +3 {GT}), Extra Time: 0 ]... Scoring First: 39-5-11 (1 Nil-Nil ties [37-DENvFRA]; 26-SRB, 27-SWE, 34-EGY, 46-PAN, 54-JPN)... Lead at Half: 16-3-4 (33 ties; 26-SRB, 27-SWE, 46-PAN)... Shutout: 29 (1-KSA, 2-EGY, 4-MAR, 6-PER, 8-NGA, 10-CRC, 11-GER, 12-KOR, 13-PAN 18-KSA {2}, 19-MAR {2}, 20-IRN, 21-PER {2}, 23-ARG, 24-ISL, 25-CRC {2}, 31-POL, 33-RUS, 37-DEN, 37-FRA, 38-AUS, 41-SRB, 43-GER {2}, 44-MEX, 45-ENG, 47-JPN, 48-SEN, 53-MEX {2}, 55-SUI)... PK: 21/28 (3-POR, 5-AUS, 5-FRA, 6-per [H], 7-arg [S], 8-CRO, 12-SWE, 14-TUN, 16-JPN, 18-EGY, 22-AUS {2}, 24-isl [H], 28-MEX, 29-BEL, 30-ENG, 30-ENG {2}, 34-ksa [S], 34-KSA {2}, 35-por [S] {2}, 35-IRN, 39-NGA, 40-ISL, 42-crc [XB], 44-SWE {2}, 50-FRA {2}, 51-RUS, 52-cro [S], 56-ENG {3})... PSO: 3 (19/29) [51-ESP:RUS 4.5 (3:4 {GGsGs:GGGG}), 52-DEN:CRO 5.0 (2:3 {sGGss:sGGsG}), 56-COL:ENG 5.0 (3:4 {GGGxs:GGsGG})]... Red Card (GF/GA): 4 (2/2) [16-COL 3' {R} (1/1), 27-GER 82' {2Y} (1/0), 33-RUS 36' {2Y} (0/1), 55-SUI 90'+4 {R} (0/0)]... Multiples: 12 [Cheryshev 2 (1-RUS), Ronaldo 3 (3-POR), Costa 2 (3-ESP), Lukaku 2 (13-BEL), Kane 2 (14-ENG), Musa 2 (24-NGA), Lukaku 2 {2} (29-BEL), Hazard 2 (29-BEL), Stones 2 (30-ENG), Kane 3 {2} (30-ENG), Mbappe 2 (50-FRA), Cavani 2 (49-URU)]... Zero SOG (Shots): 4 [1-KSA (6), 12-KOR (5), 20-IRN (5), 25-CRC (4)]... Goal Line Tech (Award): 1 (5-FRA 81')... VAR: 18 (5-FRA PK+ 56', 6-PER PK+ 45', 12-SWE PK+ 63', 17-EGY PK+InBox 72', 20-IRN Off+ 62', 22-AUS PK+ 36', 25-BRA PK- 79', 24-ISL PK+ 80', 34-KSA PK+ 45'+2, 35-POR PK+ 50', 35-IRN PK+ 90'+1, 36-ESP Off- 90'+1, 39-NGA PK- 76', 42-CRC Off+ 90'+1, 43-KOR Off- 90'+3, 44-SWE PK- 29', 48-SEN PK- 17', 55-SWE PK- 90'+4)... 63%+ Poss: 12 [4-MARvIRN (63) L, 7-ARGvISL (73) T, 20-ESPvIRN (68) W, 25-BRAvCRC (69) W, 27-GERvSWE (71) W, 35-PORvIRN (68) T, 36-ESPvMAR (68) T, 39-ARGvNGA (65) W, 43-GERvKOR (70) L, 44-MEXvSWE (65) L, 46-TUNvPAN (64) W, 51-ESPvRUS (74) T-L, 55-SUIvSWE (64) L]... 25+ Shots: 4 [7-ARG (26vISL) D, 11-GER (25vMEX) L, 43-GER (26vKOR) L, 51-ESP (25vRUS) D-L]... Regions (Teams/R16/QF): UEFA (14/10/6) 24-13-15, CONMEBOL (5/4/2) 11-5-3, AFC (5/1/-) 4-9-3, CAF (5/-) 3-10-2, CONCACAF (3/1/-) 2-7-1, OCEANIA (-)... ESP ends with a 24-match undefeated streak and BEL has a 23-match undefeated streak... IRN earlier ended MAR's 18-match undefeated streak... 5-AUS's, 14-TUN's, 17-EGY's, and 51-RUS's only shot on goal was their PK goal... FRA scored all 4 goals on 4 shots on goal, ARG scored 3 goals on 4 shots on goal... ESP had 74% possession, 60 minutes of actual playing time (vs RUS's 20), 91% passing accuracy (vs RUS's 72%), and completed 1031 passes (vs RUS' 204) and lost...  ESP had 63%+ possession in 3 of 4 matches and won just one of those... RUS's Aleksandr Erokhin became the first fourth sub in World Cup history in the 97' as FIFA allowed a fourth sub in Extra Time... COL was the 11th team to score in stoppage time to tie or win the match... more than half the matches were tied at the half (33 of 56 (58.9%))... VAR corrected a mistaken identity 21-PER 81' and helped award two yellow cards (10-SRB YC+ 90'+8, 35-POR YC+ 83')... just 31 of 158 choices thought a Group H team would make the Quarterfinals (right!)...  122 of 158 thought Group B's ESP or POR would be in the Quarterfinals (wrong!)... SUI still has not scored a knockout round goal in 64 years ('54) and haven't won any WC or EURO knockout match since '38... COL had 6 yellow cards v ENG... first time 3 R16 matches went to PSO... ENG had lost all 3 previous PSOs ('90 SF, '98 R16, '06 QF) and 1 Euro PSO ('96 SF)... CONCACAF/CAF/AFC finished a combined 9-26-6 (.257)... 26 got both URU and FRA (since ARG finished 2nd instead of 1st as most predicted, 71 were going to get 5 points for the FRA-ARG matchup regardless who won)... only Roban2 (42nd-T, 81) and GermanyFTW (57th-T, 77) picked CRO and just 5 picked RUS (no one got both)... 7 lost ESP as their champ and 34 had them in the Semis... 70 got both BRA and BEL... 55 picked ENG while just Bigblue2 (33rd-T, 83) and Krispy Kremer (54th-T, 78) picked SWE (both also picked ENG)...

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Still upset USB drive broke, but on vacation with family and it is helping!...
Scott