[ Home | | | | Mini-Updates | Standings | Possibilities | Distribution | Picks | Results ]

     TOP 11 TEAMS ALL QUALIFY FOR ROUND OF 16
Soccerhorn rises to the top as he and YellowCard and Bailo Con Hope Solo get 15 R16 teams

NEW YORK CITY, NY (smt) -- Like the Giants, Jets, and Red Bulls, I'm claiming to write this from New York despite flying into Newark, NJ and staying at a hotel in New Brunswick, NJ.  I did ride the train to NYC to see an awesome show (Finding Neverland), so it counts!  So despite the shaky second games for teams (A1-Canada ties! C1-Germany and D1-USA draw, F1-France loses), all four won their group and in fact, the top 11 teams in the WWC made the Round of 16 (hello #16 A2-China, #18 E2-Korea Rep, #19 C2-Swiss, #28 F3-Colombia, and #53 C3-Cameroon, the first African nation to reach the knockout stage).  #14 E3-Spain and #17 A3-New Zealand were the best-ranked teams (top 24) to not make the knockout stage.  C1-Japan and E1-Brazil completed a perfect 3-0-0 record with BRA getting three shutouts. 

Out of order, as the most exciting finish happened in the very last match as KOR rallied to lead ESP 2-1 four minutes into stoppage time but a handball just outside the box gave ESP one last free kick.  With E4-Costa Rica losing 1-0 a minute earlier (sending D3-Sweden into the Round of 16) keeping them at two points (-1 Goal Differential, 3 Goals For), ESP actually had a chance to advance (although it didn't look like it at first) if they could convert the FK as the 2-2 draw would put them also at -1 GD and 3 GF (KOR would then be eliminated at -2 GD).  With CRC and ESP tied on all parameters, they would draw lots to see who would finish 2nd in the group (though FIFA seemed to ignore the standings and go straight to 3-way tie which would mean it would be between KOR and CRC as they scored more goals among the 3 than ESP).  But Sonia Bermudez's free kick went off the crossbar (oh, so close!), allowing the ref to blow the whistle and KOR to celebrate their first trip to the knockout stage.

The biggest upset happened as #53 CMR beat #19 SUI 2-1 (34 rank difference is 2nd largest since rankings were introduced) but both teams advanced anyway.  Host CAN finally scored without the help of the penalty kick but also gave up their first goal allowing both teams (NED) to advance while apparently the ref believes two breasts = one hand in giving A2-China a controversial penalty kick and starting a war of words between NZL coach Troy Readings and CHN coach Hao Wei, with the latter getting red carded in the last few minutes after interfering with a NZL player.  The 2-2 tie advanced CHN and eliminated NZL.  Group B was straightforward with GER and B3-Norway picking up wins and a trip to the R16.  D3-Sweden rallied early to tie D2-Australia that sent AUS to the R16 and SWE's three ties were just enough to advance after CRC's loss.  F2-England and F1-France, with disruptive but attractive (playmaker, I mean!) Louisa Necib on the bench, picked up the needed win to advance with COL.  Top teams USA, Japan, and Brazil played to very comfortable 1-0 wins.

So one side of the bracket will feature #1 GER, #2 USA, #3 FRA, and #5 3D-Sweden while the other side will have #4 1C-Japan as its highest seed and they could face #7 Brazil in the Quarterfinals while #6 England is the best team on the bottom quarter of the bracket. GER will have to defeat #5, #3, and #2 teams just to reach the final while USA will only have to beat #38 and either #16/#53 to reach the semifinal. Colombia, Sweden, Netherlands, and Switzerland qualified by finishing as the top four 3rd place teams. 

Previous leader Spermicidal WFC finished with the most group stage wins (24) but sits tied for 3rd (63 pts) as Soccerhorn was one of three to get 15 Round of 16 teams correct (YellowCard (2nd, 64), Bailo Con Hope Solo (5th-Tied, 62)) to lead with 66 pts.  Art was one of 4 to get just 17 of 34 matches correct and the only one to get just 11 R16 teams correct to sit last with 50 pts.  Melis (21st, 52) had the fewest group stage wins with 16.  My advice is a longer more creative nickname would have helped these two!  BigRedMessi was perfect in Group A/B picking up the full 16 points.  Soccerhorn got all 6 R16 teams correct after Group C/D play (+3A-NED).  Four each picked CMR and COL in R16 correctly.

I was hoping to get the possibilities or who's eliminated done by now, but I'm having trouble with running 32K scenarios on my laptop.  But initial looks seem to indicate that with the top 4 prizes (with 22 entries, this is consistent with our first WC pool in 1998 when we had 21 entries and had top 4 money spots).  Sadly, no bonus prize though.  Prize announcement after Round of 16 when we get another 2-day break.

**UPDATE (6/20) ** Possibilities are done!  The good news is no one is eliminated which i find a little odd since 16 of you picked USA to win it all -- you must all have different semifinalists and there is only 16 points separating first and last.  Twenty can still win it all with only LAsportsfan (17th, 57) can't finishing higher than 2nd and Melis not finishing higher than 3rd.  YellowCard has the best chance to win the pool (22.1%) and Soccerhorn having the best chance to win money (49.3%).

    Bits 'N Bobs:  Goals: 107 (2.97/match, 36 matches) (4 own goals (8-NGA, 18-ECU (2), 35-MEX), 13 goals by subs (3-GER (2), 8-SWE, 16-CIV, 16-THA, 16-CRC, 23-COL, 24-ENG, 24-MEX, 25-NED, 27-GER(2), 30-CMR, 31-NGA))... Shutouts: 21 (1-CHN, 2-NZL, 3-CIV, 4-THA, 5-SUI, 6-ECU, 9-KOR, 11-ENG, 13-CAN, 13-NZL, 14-NED, 17-NGA, 19-USA, 19-SWE, 21-ESP, 23-FRA, 27-THA, 29-ECU, 31-NGA, 33-CRC, 35-MEX)... Hat Tricks: 5 (Anja Mittag (3-GER), Celia Sasic (3-GER), Gaelle Enganamouit (6-CMR), Fabienna Humm (18-SUI), Ramona Bachmann (18-SUI))... PK: 11/13 (1-CAN, 4-NOR(x-SV), 5-JPN, 6-CMR, 6-CMR, 6-CMR, 9-BRA, 13-NZL(x-CB), 18-SUI, 18-ECU, 22-KOR, 26-CHN, 36-ENG)... 90'+ goals: 5 (1-CAN 92', 6-CMR 94', 14-CHN 91', 24-MEX 91', 36-COL 94')... Leading at Half: 19-2-6 (9 ties, L: 30-SUI, 34-ESP)... Scoring 1st Goal: 23-3-8 (2 0-0 ties, L: 16-CIV, 30-SUI, 34-ESP)... Red Cards (goals for/against): 2 (6-ECU 66' (0/3), 31-NGA 69' (0/0))...  everyone got USA, CAN, FRA, GER, SWE (barely), BRA, ENG, NOR, and SUI advancing... 21 thought ESP and 20 thought MEX would make R16... just 3 picked CMR over SUI... everyone got ENG over COL... THA's goalkeeper Waraporn Boonsing (wow, what a name) saved 12 of 16 GER shots (GER had 36 total shots)... GER (65%), JPN (66%), and FRA (61%) all had more than 60% possession... GER had a +14 GD (15-1) while ECU had a -16 (1-17) and CIV -13 (3-16)... whereas JPN was outshot 20-4 in their last match, they outshot ECU 20-3... Abby Wambach finally scored for USA but with her foot instead of head -- must be the turf... ENG has twice allowed goals in the 90+ minute... all five of FRA's shots on goal were goals in 5-0 win... NGA had a delayed red card (after the match) and picked up a red card vs USA... my Futbol Fabone 7 (14th-T, 58) has a 0.01% chance to win first (4 in 32,768) with my second pick Sepp 'N Turf (5th-T) having a 4.1% chance to win first.

Never tell me the Odds! -- Han Solo, V:ESB...
Scott