Monday, July 7, 2014 
Issue #8.3.2 "Alive Again : QATAR 2022-Oh Wait!!!"
[ Home |  |  |  | Mini-Updates ]

SEMIFINALS A BATTLE OF EUROPE VS SOUTH AMERICA
Correction to possibilities mean 18 can win money; Bonus prize details announced

MINNEAPOLIS, MN (smt) -- If I'm writing from Minneapolis, this can't be good.  While my flight is delayed until morning (now past midnight, if a pilot can be found), it did provide a nice opportunity to officially roll out the Bonus Prize as we wait for the semifinals in a battle of Europe vs South America.  In years past, I used the Winningest Group as the Bonus Prize but always meant to do Winningest Region (analogous to Winningest Conference in our HWCI NCAA pools).  So that is what has happened.  This means that 43 can still win the Bonus.  Actual possible outcomes will be run after the semifinals are played.  The way the $40 Bonus will  work is that when you picked your Round of 16 bracket, you subliminally were choosing which region would do well in the knockout stage.  Whether you had Spain winning it all or Germany, it still meant you thought a European team would win the tournament.  I've tabulated everyone's picks and the result is now in the updated standings. 

The rules for Bonus1 are:

1. Matches only include the 15 knockout stage matches and wins include penalty shootout victories

2. The top 4 finishers are not eligible (no double-dipping)

3. Ties are broken by total goals in 3rd place & final matches

4. "Closest" can be above or below actual total (if actual is 5 goals, the 4 and 6 are both 1 goal away)

5. If there is still a tie, the prize is split

6. If 2 (or more) regions tie for most wins, both (or all) must have been picked correctly

7. If entry has 2 (or more) regions tied for most wins, only one must be correct to win (e.g., entry picks UEFA and CONMEBOL with 7 wins each and UEFA is the winningest region with 7 wins, then entry wins)

If no one wins this Bonus1, then a second Bonus (aka, Bonus2) opportunity will take effect (someone will have to win the $40!).  The entry closest to "Total goals in 3rd place and final matches" tiebreaker will win the $40.  In order to reward better play, ties are broken by higher placement in final pool standings.

The rules for Bonus2 are:

1. The top 4 finishers are not eligible (no double-dipping)

2. "Closest" can be above or below actual total (if actual is 5 goals, the 4 and 6 are both 1 goal away)

3. Ties are broken by highest placement (i.e., point total) in final pool standings

4. If there is still a tie, the prize is split

If you take a look at the 12 matches played thus far, 6 have been won by UEFA teams (GER (2), NED (2), FRA, BEL), 5 have been won by CONMEBOL teams (ARG (2), BRA (2), COL), and a lonely one by CONCACAF (CRC).  So the only possible winningest regions would be UEFA with 8 or 9, CONMEBOL with 8, or a tie between the two with 7 wins apiece (remember, you'd have to pick both regions).  That means 43 of the 75 entries are eligible to win the $40 Bonus so while you may have a torn bracket, there may be a nice reward at the end of this.  51 thought UEFA would have the most wins and 34 had CONMEBOL (including ties).  The only other region was CONCACAF as two picked them (both shared).

Also, I was wondering why the eight possibilities weren't diverse enough with 3 big teams still in it.  Sure enough, in 2010 match A winner played match C winner but this year A plays B.  After correcting this, instead of just 4 who can win it all and 15 entries alive, now 6 can win it all and 18 entries are alive for the four money spots.  By the way, if you missed it, the prize distribution is:

1st Place = $345.00

2nd Place = $180.00

3rd Place = $115.00

4th Place = $70.00

Bonus Prize = $40.00

The possibilities have been updated and now include all 8 possible outcomes and who would win what.  Interesting bits include at least one person will lose a tiebreaker for 4th (if NED beats BRA or BRA beats ARG in Final), Tim H could be our first-ever double winner (20 NCAA pools, 5 WC pools, 1 EURO pool) (if GER beats ARG, he wins 1st and 3rd), Cynthia S could be our first two-time WC pool champion (if GER just meets NED in Final), and we could have our first-ever 1st prize split (if NED beats BRA in final, two will split combined $525).  Overall, Cynthia S (Chiquillos) has a 50% chance to win money and David F (The Mighty Mobelfakta) has the best chance (37.5%) to win the pool.

---
Just when you thought you were out, they pull you back in...
Scott