[WC02 Logo]2002 HWCI World Cup Pool Round of 16 Scenarios

 [ Home ]
(The following are my understandings of how the tiebreakers work, so thus unofficial. Interestingly, the FIFA World Cup site has put together their own "scenarios" (I don't remember this in 1998 which is why I put together this) but they only have the first four groups (ABCE) up.  Theirs is much more technical and detailed and even gives you scenarios for finishing first.  So far my thoughts line up with FIFA's so hopefully the other four gruops are correct as well.  The following is a quick shorthand approach to what could happen, mainly emphasizing the fact that 22 of 25 teams left in contention can decide their fate on the field which is a high percentage.  All the "gray areas" (e.g., if Team A wins by 2 then they need Team C to lose by three to qualify...) can be found on FIFA's website under each group's overview section.)

Just two teams (underachiever Spain and "former" great Brazil) have advanced to the Round of 16.  Five teams have been eliminated from contention (captainless and coachless Slovenia, no 5-for-5 Bora magic for China, disgruntled Poland, trying to gain back any respect they never had Saudi Arabia, and continuing on their losing tear from WC98 Nigeria).  That leaves 25 teams vying for the final fourteen (14) Round of 16 spots.  Twenty-two (22) teams can control their own destiny by getting the desired result in their match.  The other three teams (Paraguay, Turkey, and Ecuador) need to perform and wait to see what happens in the other match.  Remember, both matches of each group are played simultaneously.

All four teams from GROUP A have a chance to advance (and all four can win 1st or 2nd) without looking at the other match.  Defending champion France needs a 2-goal win to assure themselves a spot but a 1-goal win (but still need to score at least 2 goals) over Denmark may still be enough depending if Uruguay beats Senegal by one goal and it comes down to goal differential.  Similarly, Uruguay needs a 2-goal win to definitely advance and a 1-goal win with conditions, but Uruguay could still survive with 1-0 win while France cannot.

GROUPs B and C are identical in scenarios (Paraguay and Turkey needing to win by 3 goals and have South Africa and Costa Rica lose to guarantee a spot but both can advance on goal differential if it's less than a 3 goal win; a random draw ("draw lots") is a possibility if the GD and GF are the same)).  Interestingly, both South Africa and Costa Rica will be playing the best teams and Paraguay and Turkey the worst teams in their group (giving Paraguay and Turkey hope) but with Spain and Brazil having already qualified, they may hold back to avoid injuries or 2nd yellow cards.  However, if Spain or Brazil loses, they'll finish 2nd in their respective groups.

GROUP D will be tough on co-hosts South Korea as they go up against a resurgent Portugal, who need to win to guarantee a spot.  Both South Korea and the United States will advance with a win or tie but a loss means they'll have to wait until the other match ends to see which team will advance.  South Korea currently holds a one-goal differential lead over the United States.  Portugal can also advance with a tie and a USA loss.  All three teams can still win the group.

Germany would advance with a win or tie (and provided Ireland doesn't win by 9 goals over Saudi Arabia, clinch first in GROUP E) while Cameroon needs a win to guarantee a spot (Germany wins on goal differential).  Ireland needs to win by two goals to 100% assure they'll sneak by Cameroon while both Germany and Cameroon will advance if Ireland ties or loses. A random draw ("draw lots") could be done if Ireland-Germany tie for first (same GD, GF) or Ireland-Cameroon tie for second (same GD, GF).

GROUP F is similar to Group D's standings as Argentina will need to win to automatically advance while a tie with Sweden means they have to hope England loses by 2 goals.  A one-goal English loss combined with an Argentine tie means it comes down to tiebreakers which England currently holds a one-goals for lead over Argentina as well as winning their lone match.  Both Sweden and England advance with a win or tie but Sweden's got the tougher match.  A loss to Argentina means that England has got to lose so that it'll come down to tiebreakers, which Sweden currently holds a one-goal for lead.

Despite six points, Mexico could still be eliminated if it loses and Croatia wins by two goals (creating a 3-way tie for first with 6 points). GROUP G cellar-dweller Ecuador can assure itself a spot in the Round of 16 by beating Croatia by four goals or more (unlikely) combined with an Italy loss.  Ecuador still needs to win by at least 2 goals to have any chance of making the Round of 16. The winner of Italy-Mexico will take first (Mexico also winning the group in a tie).  Croatia advances with a 2-goal win but a one-goal win will depend on tiebreakers.  Three points could be all you need to advance to the 2nd round while six points may not be enough.

GROUP H sees teams with 4, 3, 2, and 1 point(s) making this a cut-and-dry group.  Both Japan and Russia need just a tie to advance (Japan also qualifies if they lose by just one goal). Belgium needs a win over Russia to advance while Tunisia needs a 2-goal win over Japan to advance.  There's no need to find out what the other match score was.  It's that simple.  Tiebreakers, if any, will come into play only to decide the winner of the group (only between Russia vs Tunisia), which all four teams can still do.

Korea / Japan 2002
Match Results- 6/10/02
======================
(After 32 Matches)
[GROUP STANDINGS]
[QUALIFYING SCENARIOS]

Notes:
>Qualifying scenarios are
minimum event needed to
advance to 2nd Round.
>"W/T" means a win or tie
would advance team to
2nd  Round.
>"W2+" means win by 2 or
more goals.
>"w/help" means dependent
on result of other match
to advance.
>e-eliminated
>x-Advances to 2nd Round

Group A
    P W-L-D F A GD Pts
DEN 2 1-0-1 3 2  1 4
SEN 2 1-0-1 2 1  1 4
URU 2 0-1-1 1 2 -1 1
FRA 2 0-1-1 0 1 -1 1

QUALIFYING SCENARIOS:
>DEN W/T, L w/help
>SEN W/T, L w/help
>URU W2+, W w/help
>FRA W2+, W w/help

Group B
    P W-L-D F A GD Pts
ESP 2 2-0-0 6 2  4 6
RSA 2 1-0-1 3 2  1 4
PAR 2 0-1-1 3 5 -2 1
SVN 2 0-2-0 1 4 -3 0
  x-ESP 6/07-W
  e-SVN 6/08-L

QUALIFYING SCENARIOS:
>RSA W/T, L w/help
>PAR W3+ & RSA L, W w/hlp

Group C
    P W-L-D F A GD Pts
BRA 2 2-0-0 6 1  5 6
CRC 2 1-0-1 3 1  2 4
TUR 2 0-1-1 2 3 -1 1
CHN 2 0-2-0 0 6 -6 0
  x-BRA 6/09-T CRC-TUR
  e-CHN 6/09-T CRC-TUR

QUALIFYING SCENARIOS:
>CRC W/T, L w/help
>TUR W3+ & CRC L, W w/hlp

Group D
    P W-L-D F A GD Pts
KOR 2 1-0-1 3 1  2 4
USA 2 1-0-1 4 3  1 4
POR 2 1-1-0 6 3  3 3
POL 2 0-2-0 0 6 -6 0
  e-POL 6/10-L

QUALIFYING SCENARIOS:
>KOR W/T, L w/help
>USA W/T, L w/help
>POR W, T w/help

Group E
    P W-L-D F A GD Pts
GER 2 1-0-1 9 1  8 4
CMR 2 1-0-1 2 1  1 4
IRL 2 0-0-2 2 2  0 2
KSA 2 0-2-0 0 9 -9 0
  e-KSA 6/06-L

QUALIFYING SCENARIOS:
>GER W/T, L w/help
>CMR W, T/L w/help
>IRL W2+, W w/h

Group F
    P W-L-D F A GD Pts
SWE 2 1-0-1 3 2  1 4
ENG 2 1-0-1 2 1  1 4
ARG 2 1-1-0 1 1  0 3
NGA 2 0-2-0 1 3 -2 0
  e-NGA 6/07-L

QUALIFYING SCENARIOS:
>SWE W/T, L w/help
>ENG W/T, L w/help
>ARG W, T w/help

Group G
    P W-L-D F A GD Pts
MEX 2 2-0-0 3 1  2 6
ITA 2 1-1-0 3 2  1 3
CRO 2 1-1-0 2 2  0 3
ECU 2 0-2-0 1 4 -3 0

QUALIFYING SCENARIOS:
>MEX W/T, L w/help
>ITA W, T/L w/help
>CRO W2+, W/T/L w/help
>ECU W4+ & ITA L, W2+ w/help

Group H
    P W-L-D F A GD Pts
JPN 2 1-0-1 3 2  1 4
RUS 2 1-1-0 2 1  1 3
BEL 2 0-0-2 3 3  0 2
TUN 2 0-1-1 1 3 -2 1

QUALIFYING SCENARIOS:
>JPN W/T, L w/help
>RUS W/T
>BEL W
>TUN W2+

[1ST (GROUP) STAGE]
Gm Date Gp TmA Score TmB
------------------------
33 6/11 A  DEN       FRA
34 6/11 A  SEN       URU
35 6/11 E  CMR       GER
36 6/11 E  KSA       IRL
37 6/12 F  SWE       ARG
38 6/12 F  NGA       ENG
39 6/12 B  RSA       ESP
40 6/12 B  SVN       PAR
41 6/13 C  CRC       BRA
42 6/13 C  TUR       CHN
43 6/13 G  MEX       ITA
44 6/13 G  ECU       CRO
45 6/14 H  TUN       JPN
46 6/14 H  BEL       RUS
47 6/14 D  POR       KOR
48 6/14 D  POL       USA

[2ND (KNOCK-OUT) STAGE]
Gm Date Gp TmA Score TmB
------------------------
[ROUND OF 16]
49 6/15 1  1E   vs   2B
50 6/15 5  1A   vs   2F
51 6/16 6  1F   vs   2A
52 6/16 2  1B   vs   2E
53 6/17 3  1G   vs   2D
54 6/17 7  1C   vs   2H
55 6/18 8  1H   vs   2C
56 6/18 4  1D   vs   2G

© 1998-2002 HWCI Productions [email protected]