Issue # 3.1.2 “Not the Expected Upsets” (3/18)

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3 MORE DOUBLE-DIGIT SEEDS WIN; BIG 12 PERFECT
Shepwick leads as 3 most popular upset picks fizzle out

POST-FUNERAL WITH STAY AT HOMIE , ROSEMEAD, CA (smt) – There were three near-shoo-ins of a double-digit seed winning and all three lost today.  Getting outpicked must have been locker room motivation for their opponents as Sweet 16 darling #10S-Loyola Chicago and ACC champ #11E-Virginia Tech crashed hard while #10W-Davidson blew a late 5-point lead.  But three double-digit seeds did win as #10MW-Miami (FL), #11W-Notre Dame (making it 10 out of 11 years a First Four team has won at least two games), and #11MW-Iowa St (against #6MW-LSU who fired their coach) advanced. 

Just missed

No Sister Jean magic this time as the 102-year old had to witness her Loyola Chicago shoot 26.8% from the field, 28.6% from three, and at one time were 1 of 8 from the free throw line in their loss to #7S-Ohio St, giving the Big Ten a confidence boost that would see the Big Ten go 5-0 today (not to be outdone, the Big 12 went 6-0 in the first round).  The Ramblers had made the Sweet 16 in their past two appearances.  Miami committed just 3 turnovers to #7MW-USC’s 18 but had to survive a mid-court go-ahead 3 by USC that just banked off the rim (missing a true buzzer beater), a la Butler’s last shot vs Duke in the ’10 Final.  USC had a chance to go up but missed the front end of a one-and-one late (there were 12 second half lead changes) and Miami then rolled six straight points.

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Issue # 7.3.1 “Ramblers a Pretender, Pac 12 Rolls On” (3/27)

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LOYOLA CHICAGO CHOKES; ARKANSAS SURVIVES AGAIN
License to ILL regains lead while Mrs Meghan&Mr Meghan goes 4-0

Oral Roberts Buzzer Beater Miss

HOME EASTER EGG HUNT, CA (smt) – #12MW-Oregon St didn’t pay well but used an 11-0 run to end the first half to put away the hapless darlings of #8MW-Loyola Chicago, who did not know how to play as a favorite, rather than the lovable underdog.  There were no adjustments in the second half as the Ramblers just continued to struggle against the zone and shot just 33.3% and missed 7 free throws, seemingly missing a key one every time they had some momentum.  Other favorites had sluggish first halves as well, with #1S-Baylor scoring just 23 points in the first half but used a 14-2 run in the second half to hold off #5S-Villanova and #3S-Arkansas trailing by 12 in the second half to #15S-Oral Roberts before going ahead with 3.1 seconds left and surviving their second straight buzzer-beater attempt. 

#2MW-Houston broke the zone and a 20-20 tie by scoring the last 10 points of the half and outscored #11MW-Syracuse 21-9 to end the game to advance to the Elite 8, winning by 16.  Houston’s three wins were against double-digit seeds (#15MW-Cleveland St, #10MW-Rutgers) and now will face yet another double-digit seed in #12MW-Oregon St, who wouldn’t be in the tourney if they didn’t win the Pac 12 tournament.

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Issue # 4.2.1 “Sister Jean to Sweet 16” (3/21)

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3 DOUBLE DIGIT SEEDS + RAMBLERS MAKE SWEET 16
License to ILL remains in 1st but lost champ Illinois

Sister Jean

DREAMING THROUGH AN UPSET, CA (smt)- So this was the morning I was going to sleep in, after working most weekends the past month, to get some good REM sleep.  I mean, #1MW-Illinois was the first game.  So if my phone was buzzing, I didn’t hear it.  Woke up and saw #1MW-Illinois was upset by fellow Illinois-team #8MW-Loyola Chicago.  And not really close at all, never letting the Illini get closer than 7 in the second half.  Sister Jean apparently gave a pre-game speech and magic happened.  The Ramblers were a top 10 team by statistics, which no one believed, and thus made an 8 seed.   They now get #12MW-Oregon St who withheld several rallies by #4MW-Oklahoma St to keep the Pac 12 perfect (6-0, 7-0 including First Four).  Elite 8?  We’ll see.

Two other double-digits seeds advanced with #11MW-Syracuse nearly blowing a late 9 point lead to beat #3MW-West Virginia (battle of the 900 win coaches) and #15S-Oral Roberts overcoming an 11-point deficit with under 10 minutes left to stun #7S-Florida.  Oral Roberts becomes just the second #15 seed in the Sweet 16 (Florida Gulf Coast ’13).  #10MW-Rutgers nearly joined them but blew a 9-point lead with under 5 minutes left as #2MW-Houston scored the last 7 points of the game (making just one shot, 5 points on free throws) in losing by 3.  Rutgers did the “prevent defense” which took them out of their rhythm, trying to hold the ball before the shot clock ran out, scoring just two points in the final 4:55.

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Issue # 25.2 “25 Years: The Teams”

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Tuesday, March 24, 2020
25 YEARS:  281 TEAMS HAVE MADE PROPER 64 IN OUR POOLS
Ignoring Opening Round and First Four losers, we have seen at least one new team each year

EL SEGUNDO, CA (smt)- In the final AP pool, teams 2 through 7 are not your usual suspects with only Florida St (ACC), Baylor (Big 12), and Creighton (Big East) coming from the Power 5 conferences.  Gonzaga (WCC), Dayton (Atlantic 10), and San Diego St (Mountain West) would have provided some much needed parity.  But alas, none of those teams will count.  So without a tournament, here is another 25 Year retrospective, this time focusing on the teams who have made the tournament (the proper 64 that is). 

Top Seed in NCAA Tournament
Top Ranked Team to Win it All

So when the NCAA tried to mess up brackets by adding a 65th team (Opening Round 64v65) in 2001 due to the new Mountain West Conference taking away an at-large bid or when they added three more at-large teams to create the First Four (well, the First Round until 2016) in 2011, we ignored them.  The proper 64 bracket that starts Thursday at 9:15 am is what matters in this pool.  If you pick your bracket early you’ll just select “Team A/Team B” to advance and as always, you can change your picks up until the deadline.

Duke has been the top seed (#1 overall) 6 times including four in a row from ’99-’02  with Kentucky (4) and Kansas (3) right behind as shown in the table on the left.  From ’95-’03 the top seed was determined by the final AP pool before the tournament and from ’04-present the top seed is announced as part the NCAA’s ranked seeds listing.  UMass (’96) is probably the oddest top seed and local favorite UCLA was only the top seed in our first pool in ’95.  Five top seeds went on to win the tournament (’95 UCLA, ’01 Duke, ’07 Florida, ’12 Kentucky, ’13 Louisville).  Only twice did the top 2 seeds make the final (’99 Duke v UConn, ’05 Illinois v UNC) and twice did none of the top 4 seeds make the Final Four (’06, ’11).   UConn, however, has won the most titles (4) with Duke, UNC, and Kentucky winning 3 each in the past 25 years.  A #1 seed has won the title 17 times with UConn (#7E) the worst seed to win the title. 

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Issue # 12.4.4 “Two 1-Time Champs and Two #1s Battle It Out” (3/30)

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1st ever matchup: LAFC v LA Galaxy

2018 NCAA FINAL FOUR @ San Antonio, Texas
[Alamodome]
First Semifinal Second Semifinal
#11-South
Atlanta, GA

Hosted by Georgia Tech (ACC)
Phillips Arena
#3-West
Los Angeles, CA

Hosted by Pepperdine U. (WCC)
Staples Center
#1-East
Boston, MA

Hosted by Boston College (ACC)
TD Garden
#1-Midwest
Omaha, NE

Hosted by Creighton U. (Big East)
CenturyLink Center
Loyola U. Chicago Ramblers U. of Michigan Wolverines Villanova U. Wildcats Kansas U. Jayhawks
Loyola University Chicago Ramblers (32-5) University of Michigan Wolverines (32-7) Villanova University Wildcats (34-4) Kansas University Jayhawks (31-7)
Missouri Valley Conference – Champs
Chicago, Illinois

2nd Final Four (’63
)
1-time champion
def #6 Miami (Fla) 64-62
#3 Tennessee 63-62
#7 Nevada 69-68
#9 Kansas St. 78-62

Big Ten Conference – Champs
Ann Arbor, Michigan

8th Final Four (’64, ’65, ’76, ’89, ’92, ’93, ’13)
1-time champion
def #14 Montana 61-47
#6 Houston 64-63
#7 Texas A&M 99-72
#9 Florida St 58-54
 
Big East Conference – Champs
Villanova, Pennsylvania

6th Final Four (’39, ’71, ’85, ’09, ‘16
)
2-time champions
def #16b Radford 87-61
#9 Alabama 81-58
#5 West Virginia 90-78
#3 Texas Tech 71-59
 
Big 12 Conference – Champs
Lawrence, Kansas

15th Final Four (’40, ‘52, ’53, ’57, ’71, ’74, ’86, ’88, ’91, ’93, 02, ’03, ’08, ’12)
3-time champions
def #16 Penn 76-60
#8 Seton Hall 83-79
#5 Clemson 80-76
#2 Duke 85-81 (OT)

ALL FOUR TEAMS WON THEIR CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT EN ROUTE TO FINAL FOUR
Five can win pool and 18 are still alive in race to finish

LEGOLAND IN CARLSBAD, CA (smt)- On the road to San Antonio, all four teams managed to get the automatic bid as their conference tournament champion.  Coincidentally, Loyola-Chicago and Michigan both won their tournaments a week before Selection Sunday and face each other in the first semifinal.  The Big Ten, in an effort to get their tournament at Madison Square Garden, held their tourney a week earlier than usual.  That’s because Madison Square Garden hosts the Big East tournament, which was won by Villanova.  Both Villanova and Kansas won the day before Selection Sunday, earned #1 seeds, and will face each other in the second semifinal.  This left only the SEC with their championship on Selection Sunday (oh yeah, the Pac 12 final was also on Saturday though it’s debatable if they are still one of the Big Five conferences after their poor showing) as more one-bid leagues have the championship on Selection Sunday.

Both Loyola-Chicago and Michigan faced their expected seeded teams in the first weekend but then faced #7 and #9 seeds in the second weekend.  Both have also won just one championship and are in the midwest United States.  Both Villanova and Kansas have faced their expected seeded teams within one rank (2/3, 4/5, 8/9) and will face each other, the best possible matchup.  Villanova has won all four games in double-digits while Kansas has won their last three games by four points, needing overtime vs. Duke.

As we look forward to crowning our 22nd different champion in 24 years, 18 entries are still hoping to finish in the top 6.  The difference between 1st and 6th is $545.  No one picked Loyola-Chicago but Continue reading »

Issue # 11.4.3 “First Four Unkind to Pac 12” (First Four Recap) (3/27)

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We are a Christian organization working to help communities lift themselves out of poverty. For good.

RECAP OF FIRST FOUR, THE GREATEST UPSET, AND SISTER JEAN
At least $56 will be donated to World Vision; over $705 donated in 8 years

EL SEGUNDO, CA (smt)- Apparently the Selection Committee did watch Pac 12 basketball because they shafted one of the big 5 conferences for a good reason — they suck.  With any respect, USC would be easily in, UCLA and Arizona St would be 8/9 seeds, and Arizona, as the conference and tournament champ, would be at least a 3 seed.  Nope.  No USC, UCLA and Arizona St relegated to the First Four games, and champ Arizona dropped to a 4 seed and not in the West.  Well, the committee knew what it was doing as #11bE-UCLA choked down the stretch against #11aE-St. Bonaventure, 65-58, and #11aMW-Arizona St lost a close one to #11bMW-Syracuse, 60-56.  This was the first time a conference had two teams in the First Four and now have the distinction as the only conference to have two losers in the First Four in the same year.  UCLA’s Aaron Holiday was a turnover machine (10 of UCLA’s 20 total) including three in the last 30 seconds after the Bruins had rallied to tie the game at 58.  Arizona St had a 7 point lead with 7 minutes left before Syracuse, the last team in, went on an 8-0 run.  Certainly, the Pac 12 basketball teams matched the horrible post-season Pac 12 football had.

#16bE-Radford slowly outscored #16aE-LIU Brooklyn 12-3 in the final five minutes to get their first tournament win, 71-61.  There were 42 fouls and 30 turnovers in this grudge fest.  #16bW-Texas Southern broke open a 10-10 game and never looked back in routing #16aW-NC Central, 64-46.  Like a few of the Southwestern Athletic (SWA) Conference teams, Texas Southern played their first 13 games on the road against top teams and went 0-13 to start but won when it mattered, in the SWAC championship game and in the First Four game, their first ever tournament win.  Texas Southern’s 0-13 start was the worst ever for a tournament team and they became the first sub .500 team (15-19) to win a tournament game.  NC Central lost their second straight First Four game (last year).

The greatest upset is one of those “where were you when it happened” and I’ll always remember being at the Black Angus in Buena Park with my family and watching the game on the NCAA March Madness app on my iPad Air 2.  Stunned.  I even tweeted a cryptic message:  Watch TV now.  History in making? for anyone who didn’t bother to watch another #1 seed trash a #16 seed.  The way #16S-UMBC played was fun to watch, they never took the gas off the accelerator that most big programs do when they have a double-digit lead with 10 minutes left.  Kept the pressure and #1S-Virigina never responded.  Virginia wasn’t a #1 seed, they were the #1 overall seed, and despite losing a bench player who was just 4th on the team in scoring, were still heavily favored to make the Sweet 16 before they had to worry about not having De’Andre Hunter on the bench.  In fact, I compiled a few of the predictions below from all over the spectrum, post-Hunter injury.  The most interesting was the swarm concept as a bunch of people individually moved a token toward the most likely scenario, in this case Virginia – High Confidence. The concept here as that as everyone is moving their token to that spot, some will Continue reading »

Issue # 9.4.1 “No Doubt This Time” (3/24)

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The Expanse Season 3 starts April 11 on SyFy

FOR ONCE, LOYOLA-CHICAGO CRUISES; MICHIGAN HANGS ON
Larzby finally in front by 4 points with 81.3% chance to win money

Why no foul?ROSEMEAD, CA (smt)- After winning their first three games by a combined total of four points, #11S-Loyola-Chicago made sure to secure their Final Four berth routing #9S-Kansas St, 78-62.  In pushing the pace, the Ramblers had 15 turnovers and K-State converted on a lot of them, but Loyola-Chicago helped themselves by shooting 57.4% from the field and 50% behind the stripe (9/18) while the Wildcats shot 34.8% from the field.  Sister Jean and the Missouri Valley Conference tournament winners will go to San Antonio as the fourth #11 seed to make it.

#3W-Michigan was only pretty in short bursts but it was enough to hold off #9W-Florida St, 88-84.  The Wolverines went on a 11-1 run in 4:52 early in the second half to turn a one-point deficit into a 10-point lead and then a 7-0 run in 1:49 to build back a 10-point lead with 2:26 left.  But the rest of the time Michigan was sloppy (same for Florida St) and the Seminoles took advantage late to quickly score 8 of the next 9 points in 1:09 but could not get closer than 2 in the final seconds.  However, in the most bizarre sequence,  down by 2 with 24 seconds left, the Seminoles prevented Michigan’s poorest free throw shooter Zavier Simpson from getting the in-bound pass and allowed near 90% free throw shooter Duncan Robinson to get the ball instead and was fouled.  Simpson had already missed the front end of a 1-on-1 and missed 1 of 2 the last trip (why Michigan kept giving him the ball was a gift that kept on giving to FSU) and, so of course, Robinson easily nailed both free throws to put Michigan up 58-54.  After a missed 3-point attempt, Michigan got the rebound but the Seminoles did NOT foul, essentially giving up with 10.6 seconds left.  Maybe because it was Robinson who got the rebound and Florida St had no timeouts, the Seminoles felt they’d automatically be down by 6 with a foul but still, anything can happen.  At least try to steal the ball.

The second half was mostly ugly with FSU going without a FG for 5:44 early in the half then without a FG for 7:53 (staying in the game with 8 free throws) from 10 minutes to 2:07.  Michigan went 5 minutes without a FG midway through and none in the last 2:26.  Both teams shot under 39% from the field (Michigan 38.8%, FSU 31.4%) and under 24% from long range (FSU 23.5%, Michigan 18.2% (4 of 22 after making 14 of 24 their last game)).  In the last 1:38, Michigan missed twice on the front end of a 1-on-1 and made just 2 of 4 in their other free throw attempts (before Robinson coolly nailed 2 with 21 seconds left).

In the pool, Larzby was one of 33 to pick Michigan and moved into first place, topping the century mark (101 pts).  Philly Eagles Again moved into 2nd (97) and Billiam and Lady Chocoholic moved into a tie for Continue reading »

Issue # 7.3.1 “Rambling On” (3/22)

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LOYOLA-CHICAGO STOPS NEVADA COMEBACK, TWO #9S ARE IN
SacKings4Ever back in the lead with 60 still in the running for money

Loyola-Chicago's Sister JeanCERRITOS, CA (smt)- Once again, #7S-Nevada rallied from a double-digit second half deficit (this time 12 points with 16:45 left) to tie the game at 59… but left too much time on the clock with 4:06 remaining.  In a tight battle the rest of the way, #11S-Loyola-Chicago’s Marques Townes hit a clutch three with 6.3 seconds left to lead by 4 and eventually held on to win, 69-68.  The Ramblers’ three victories have been a total margin of just four points and they reach the Elite 8 for the first time since ’63.  Interestingly, Nevada was low on fouls to give and with a six second differential in shot to game clock, surprisingly did not try to foul (either to get their count up to a 1-on-1 or to just extend the game) and even if Townes would have missed the three, less than six seconds would have been left to go down the court.  So after a quick layup with 3 seconds left, Nevada fouled three times, each taking 0.5-1.0 seconds, but could not get the ball back because Loyola-Chicago was not in a 1-on-1 situation.  Game over.  Maybe Sister Jean Dolores Schmidt, Loyola’s 98-year-old team chaplain, put the prayer on big time to have Nevada reach such a poor decision.

#9S-Kansas St, despite three players fouling out, won for the first time ever against #5S-Kentucky (now 1-9 all-time) by scoring the last three points in a 61-58 win.  In the Wildcat-Wildcat battle, Kentucky was on a 13-4 run and was up 57-56 with 1:32 left.  #4W-Gonzaga has had a poor showing all tournament and it finally caught up them as #9W-Florida St found an opening and finished on a 22-11 run to reach the Elite 8 for the first time since ’93, 75-60.  #3W-Michigan’s barrage of threes helped build a 29-point first half lead (52-23) en route to a thrashing of #7W-Texas A&M, 99-72.  Michigan shot 61.9% (tournament high) from the field and made 14 of 24 threes (58.3%).

In the pool, SacKings4Ever and Alyonushka went 2-2 with the former taking over 1st place (87 pts) and the latter moving to a tie for 64th (69) from 114th.  Wuk2 moved into 3rd (84) behind former leader M Star (84) but Continue reading »

Issue # 4.2.1 “Buzzer Beater Madness” (3/17)

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**HAPPY ST PATRICK’S DAY**

TENN AND HOUSTON SHOCKED BY LAST MINUTE BASKETS
M Star shoots back to top as 18 go 7-1

Houston-Michigan Buzzer BeaterCERRITOS (smt)- We got our first true buzzer-beater as a great designed play got the ball to Jordan Poole who fired off a spread-eagled three before the buzzer and nailed it to give #3W-Michigan a one-point 64-63 victory over #6W-Houston.  Houston missed both free throws before the play and couldn’t extend a two-point lead with 3.6 seconds left and they did not guard the inbound pass (I thought the famous ’92 Duke buzzer-beater made teams start to guard the inbound pass).  that wasn’t the only late-game drama as #11S-Loyola-Chicago blew a 10 point lead with 4 minutes left and trailed by 1 with 21 seconds left.  Clayton Custer took an off balanced jumper that hit the front of the rim, then the backboard, and then into the rim with 3.6 seconds left to give the Ramblers a 63-62 win over #3S-Tennessee.  The Vols, with no timeouts, took the inbound and actually had a great look at a 3 that was just long.  The South has now lost its #1, #3, and #4 teams.  Watch out #2S-Cincinnati.

#5S-Kentucky (ending game on 21-6 run after #13S-Buffalo got within 3), #1E-Villanova, and #2MW-Duke dominated second half for an easy win while #1MW-Kansas, #4W-Gonzaga, and #3E-Texas Tech all held on to narrow wins.  Six top seeds won today.

M Star was one of 18 to go 7-1 today to take the lead with 75 pts.  Wuk2 and Bwakewey 1 are Continue reading »