TRADITION WINS OUT
In the first game of the day, #11MW-Tennessee had a chance to go up by 1 in erasing a 8-point deficit with 2 minutes left and 5-point deficit with 32 seconds left. A controversial charge Continue reading
Elim the Impossible
As we head into the Elite 8, there are 128 possible outcomes. If you want to know your exact winning outcome, post a comment here, tweet @HWCI_Pools or #hwciNCAA, or post on our Facebook page. For example, my Elim the Impossible pick is somehow alive (was 1 in 256, now 1 in 128). In order for that entry to win 5th place, I need Kentucky to beat Michigan St. in the final with Dayton & Wisconsin in the Final Four. A little better (not much) chance for my main entry, The Fabone XX. Here are my 14 winning scenarios (note that I could lose a tiebreaker and get nothing in some “winning” scenarios):
2014 HWCI NCAA POOL INDIVIDUAL POSSIBILITIES 03/28/14
For: The Fabone XX
| Possible Tournament Results |
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Entry Place 1st 2nd
------------------------------- ----- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
The Fabone XX 3* Fla AZ MiS Ken Day Con Wis MI
The Fabone XX 4* Fla Ken MiS AZ Day Con Wis MI
The Fabone XX 4* Ken Fla MiS AZ Day Con Wis MI
The Fabone XX 4* Day AZ MiS Ken Fla Con Wis MI
The Fabone XX 6* Day Ken MiS AZ Fla Con Wis MI
The Fabone XX 6* Ken Day MiS AZ Fla Con Wis MI
The Fabone XX 3* Fla AZ Con Ken Day MiS Wis MI
The Fabone XX 4* Fla Ken Con AZ Day MiS Wis MI
The Fabone XX 4* Ken Fla Con AZ Day MiS Wis MI
The Fabone XX 6* Day AZ Con Ken Fla MiS Wis MI
The Fabone XX 6* Fla Ken MiS Wis Day Con AZ MI
The Fabone XX 4* Fla AZ MiS MI Day Con Wis Ken
The Fabone XX 6* Day AZ MiS MI Fla Con Wis Ken
The Fabone XX 4* Fla AZ Con MI Day MiS Wis Ken
* = subject to tie-break
Issue # 8.3.1 “History Repeats… Again”
GATORS BEST BRUINS AGAIN; FLYERS FLYING HIGH
With three top seeds winning, 52 went 3-1 for the day including GoGoGodzilla (46th-T, 87 pts), who was the only one to pick Dayton but Continue reading
Issue # 7.2.4 “Billion Dollar Time Machine” [Sweet 16 Thoughts]
Previous Sweet 16 Themes: [ 13 - SportsNation | 12 - Amazing Race | 11 - Year-by-Year | 10 - Health Care | 09 - American Cancer Society | 08 - Who Is The Mole? | 07 - TV Shows | 06 - Awards ]
And may the odds be ever in your favor!
![[ Quicken Loans Billion $ Bracket Challenge ]](https://www.hwci.com/ncaa/2014/images/n2014_billion$bracket.png)
Of course, the odds up to the start of the Round of 32 was still 4,294,967,296 (4.2 billion) to 1, not accounting that each game has a different probability of winning (e.g., the 4.2 billion assumes each game has a 50/50 chance of either team winning but we know, for example, the #16 seed has basically >1% chance). So try beating 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 to 1 (9.2 quintillion) to get all 63 games correct (that number is greater than the national debt of $17,560, 724,125,874 (17.5 trillion). Even ![[ National Debt 3/27/2014 ]](https://www.hwci.com/ncaa/2014/images/n2014_debt.gif){kind=small}
if you were to weigh each game (e.g., #1 has 90% beating #16, #2 85% over #15, #3 80% over #14, etc.), you still would be about 70 billion to 1. And for the first 32 games, it’s about 45,000 to 1 (very reasonable and has happened (not in our pool) quite a few times in the past in other national pools). Over 20 years, we’ve had only 1,559 entries which means sometime in the next 569 years we will have our perfect 32-0 bracket! If the games were split evenly over the first two days (e.g., two #1 seeds play Thursday, two on Friday), then weighing the probabilities, it’s only 211 to 1 to be a perfect 16-0. And in our pool, we’ve had 5 perfect 16-0 entries (including 2 this year) which means our actual ratio is 312 to 1, which is close to 211 to 1. Don’t you love it when the math works out?
Anyway, if you had gone 48-0 by now, the odds are only 1 in 32,768 or if weighted, as good as 1 in 4,114 (it’ll be higher because not all #1, #2, #3, and #4 seeds will make the Sweet 16) to complete the perfect bracket. Seems reasonable. So, if I had a hot tub time machine and was able to tell myself how to pick the bracket to get to 48-0 to be on my way to a Billion Dollar bracket, here are 16 pieces to the puzzle.
- Chalk. Start with all the favorites (seed-wise). There were only 14 upsets of the 48 games.
- N’names. A couple big schools have some weird Continue reading
Issue # 6.2.3 “You May Be Revived”
Bonus Prize details; 17 eliminated entries are eligible to win Bonus
As it has been the past ten years, the Conference Wins is the Bonus Prize (as detailed below) (aka, Bonus1). However, if no one wins it, the Bonus2 takes effect and the entry who is closest to the Total Points in Final tiebreaker gets the Bonus Prize. This is the 11th year we have used this Bonus to give hope to those who get eliminated early as only those who do not finish in the top 6 will be eligible to win. Rules follow below…
Bonus1 – Winningest Conference
When you completed your online entry and saw your picks (to print out), some of you might have been wondering Continue reading
Issue # 5.2.2 “Pac 12 Rules Day While Huge Winning Streaks Snapped”
Hawkeye now up by 6 and has 70% chance to win money
One of the oddest endings as a great back-and-forth battle between #3E-Iowa St and #6E-UNC saw the Cyclones score the go-ahead with 1.6 seconds left and then Continue reading
Issue # 4.2.1 “Three Point Drought”
GoGoGodzilla is perfect 8-0 but Hawkeye has 5 point lead
I was thinking the coach was to blame but then Continue reading
Issue # 3.1.2 “Four Point Play and Duke Away”
Hawkeye & The Rat Pack are tied for 1st
Issue # 2.1.1 “Overtime & Perfection”
(Now complete!) Archive
Hawkeye & FC Nordsjaelland are perfect; Record 138 entries received
EL SEGUNDO, CA (smt)- Where to begin? The NCAA Selection Committee should just admit they are seeding to get good matchups instead of actually ranking the teams as most of the double-digit seeded teams held their own making for exciting basketball but one has to question the seeding system. Just because a #12 has won almost every year doesn’t mean it HAS to. There were 3 upsets early (#11S-Dayton, #9S-Pitt, and #12E-Harvard) with the latter two not surprising most people. Top seeds struggled with #1S-Florida, #4MW-Louisville, #4W-SDSU, and #5MW-St Louis all holding on to victories. Only #2W-Wisconsin, #3S-Syracuse, #4E-Michigan St, #2MW-Michigan, #7W-Oregon, and #2E-Villanova pulled away to easy wins. The last 8 games saw four overtimes Continue reading
Full disclosure, my dear Watson
In the nickname links are my two entries in the pool, a hard earned $20 going to someone else. In celebration of the 20th year, The Fabone XX is poised to give false hope early before crashing down hard. And Elim the Impossible, with inspiration from Sherlock Holmes (with the great series Sherlock as well as Elementary), figures to either fight for the top or fight for the bottom. There is no middle. BTW, you can view your own bracket as well.
Edit: Dave’s pick, The Mighty Mobelfakta, just came in! We now have 121 entries so hopefully we can get at least 14 in the morning to set a new record.
Issue # 1.0.1 “Double X”
Our HWCI Pool XX could be wide-open; java applet is reaching end-of-life
With more flexibility in allowing a re-match or re-re-match to happen (a three-re-match not so much) and allowing conference teams to meet a round earlier than usual, the bracket this year better reflects a team’s true seed (except for Louisville fans). Kansas’ Joel Embid’s injury (out at least the 2nd & 3rd rounds) is of interest but they still got the #2 seed. The Big 12 (ten teams) got 7 teams in while the ACC, Big 10 (twelve teams), Pac 12, and Atlantic 10 each got 6 teams in. If you were to combine the old Big East, they got 8 teams (4 new Big East, 4 American Conf). So I guess this year there are 7 power conferences (vs 6) which meant only 7 at-large bids did not go to them. If you consider the Atlantic 10 a new power conference, then only San Diego St. and #10W-BYU (controversial as well) got at-large bids. Oddly, three of the 4 First Four matches are in the Midwest which benefits Wichita St. but that is quickly countered by traditional powers at the 2 (Michigan), 3 (Duke), and 4 (Louisville) lines.
Our HWCI NCAA Pool is no longer be a teenager as we’ve hit our 20th year. Last year Continue reading
If you didn’t know, one day down
So this is interesting. We got a record 42 entries on Tuesday, shattering the previous record of 25 (2011). Maybe the java issues prompted people to enter earlier than usual. We now have 60 entries, which considering we typically get just 30% of our final total by this time, that would mean we’d have 200 entries. We won’t get close to that, but we have a pretty good shot of surpassing 2012’s record total of 134. So keep spreading the word.
Yes, two games were played today (I’m so tired I thought all 4 were being played today). 8 correctly picked NC State and Continue reading
First Four Underway
I think I’ve captured all the email, Facebook chat, Facebook comment, SMS, and Blog comments for the 4th HWCI Final Four For Charity. We have 22 entries, which is two more than last year (our high was in ’11 with 30). So that’s $44 I will donate to Friends of Renee. But there’s at least $15 donated by others in the pool so the total is at least $59. Thank you.
No one picked all the lower seeded teams (designated away team) and just two picked all the higher seeded teams (designated home team). Four picked Albany/Xavier/Cal Poly SLO/Iowa. No one had a larger point margin than 16 in their picks. 15 picked Albany, 14 picked Xavier, 12 picked Cal Poly SLO (they are 13-19), and 12 picked Tennessee.
Below is everyone’s picks followed by the current standing (3-way tie for first) after Continue reading
Please try again.
Thanks for everyone’s patience with our java bracket. Despite that, we have 18 entries (3 hand-filled (1 jpg, 2 pdf), 1 ESPN screenshot, 10 CBSSports via our alternate HWCI group, and 4 somehow got java to work) which is only 2 off of last year’s pace with a working site. So now, if the java bracket doesn’t show up, the #1 suggestion on the page is to use our new alternate bracket entry. Looks different but should work on all browsers (in fact, I just submitted a bracket on my iPad Air! — yes, I’m not always anti-Apple). You’ll find the link after submitting the info form at Web Entry. If it’s a wild success, we’ll just replace the java applet with this (reduces 1 click-thru). Alternatively, you can email (ncaa<at>hwci.com) a copy of your completed bracket (phone picture, scan) with name, email, nickname, and total pts in final.
PLEASE JUST SEND A QUICK EMAIL W/FIRST FOUR PREDICTIONS BY 3:40 PM) I will donate $2 per entry to a charity which will be Friends of Renee (previous were MathCounts (a record $103 donated by myself and others), American Red Cross, and American Cancer Society). Again details can be found on our homepage but basically, reply to this email the winners of the First Four (4 games: Albany vs Mt St Marys, Cal Poly vs TX Southern, NC St vs Xavier, Iowa vs Tenn) and margin of victory of each (e.g., Xavier by 4 pts).
Lastly, you can now view your bracket (if you emailed it to me or submitted via CBSSports, give me a while). This is important if I entered your bracket, so double-check I didn’t put Tulsa winning it all. Until things are official, nicknames may be funny or slightly off but you should be able to find it in the dropdown box. If you can’t let us know.
4th Annual HWCI NCAA First Four for Charity Contest
For the 4th straight year, we’ll be using the First Four games as a little friendly competition for charity. For every entry (1 per person but it’s free so invite your significant other or friends and family), I’ll personally donate $2 to a charity. This year, we’ll be helping a fellow participant (Eric F) raise money to cover his friend’s enormous medical costs due to the effects of chronic Lyme disease, which if you don’t know you have it, is hard to detect and treat early. The Friends of Renee committee (mission statement below) helps bring awareness of Lyme disease, which is the fastest growing infectious disease in the United States. I remember going on a hike in Sequoia National Park and my wife’s sister was warning us about ticks. I thought it’s just a bug bite, but she pointed out they carry diseases such as Lyme disease and I never thought of hiking in forests the same way again.
Last year, $103 was donated (odd number due to additional donations by generous people) to MathCounts. In 2012, $83 was donated to the American Cancer Society. In 2011, $100 was donated to the American Red Cross for the tsunami and earthquake relief. It’s easy to enter. Just comment to this post or send an email to scott(at)hwci.com with the 4 First Four winners and the winning margin. Example: Albany wins by 4 points, Texas Southern by 15 pts, Xavier by 1 pt, and Iowa by 8 pts. Simple. Here are the First Four matchups (deadline 3:40 pm PDT Tuesday):
#16S Albany vs Mt. St. Mary's
#16MW Cal Poly SLO vs Texas Southern
#12MW NC State vs Xavier
#11MW Iowa vs Tennessee Continue reading