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ST PETER’S DOES IT, ACC ROLLS IN
Mia Culpa lead by 13, clinches at least 4th; 33 still alive

3.5 HOUR LONG DRIVE GOLETA TO HOME, CA (smt) – In the city of brother love, #4E-UCLA had a three-point lead under 2 minutes and UNC clanked a bad shot but a hustle play to save the ball created a UNC three-point opportunity by Caleb Love (who had a jaw-dropping 27 points in the 2nd half – UCLA had 35 total in the 2nd half) to tie and later allowed another offensive rebound that UNC tipped in to go up by 5.  UNC hit their free throws to win 73-66, outscoring the Bruins 12-2 to end the game.  The west coast is toasted, once again.  UCLA played well committing just 6 turnovers but it was two hustle plays that doomed them.  I also blame the telecast using UCLA in ugly yellow background for the scoreline.

#15E-St Peter’s played well and didn’t panic when #3E-Purdue went up 56-52 and went on a 9-1 run, hit 19/21 free throws, and their defense made Purdue miss their first 10 threes of the 2nd half in winning 67-64.  In a rare one possession game, Purdue actually had a very decent look to tie as the buzzer-beater just missed.  St Peter’s is the first team to win twice as double-digit underdogs and becomes the first 13/14/15/16 seed to make the Elite 8.

#1MW-Kansas kept the bracket somewhat decent by going on a 10-2 run after #4MW-Providence went up 48-47 to win 66-61 and give the program its record 2,354th win (topping Kentucky).  They will face #10MW-Miami (Florida) who got zero bench points but pulled away from #11MW-Iowa State, 70-56, in a game they only trailed briefly 8-7 (after not trailing at all in their 2nd round game).  With Miami and UNC joining Duke, the ACC has 3 teams in the Elite 8 and no other conference has more than 1 team.

Mia Culpa went 2-2 (along with Tarheel Blue Balls (3rd-Tied, 93 pts) and MizzouTgr11 2 (8th, 89)) to increase the lead to 13 with 109 points (in ’98, our winner Anna Come Lately won by 13 points for largest margin of victory).  Mia Culpa also went a Sweet 16 best 6-2.  Frost Toasted is in 2nd (96).  Pac-10 Rules! and Lady Chocoholic are tied for 3rd but can’t finish higher than 3rd place.  Barbs is tied for 14th (87) but can still win the pool.  PacAttack GoWildcats!, Flying Ace, and Wuk#2 are tied for 8th (89) but are eliminated while Frosted Toast is tied for 101st (73) but can still finish 7th.

When UNC beat UCLA, that moved Mia Culpa (no worse than 4th) and Frost Toasted to 100% to finish in the top 7 and Tarheel Blue Balls to 93% with 8 games left to go.  The earliest someone has clinched money (1st game of Day 2 of Sweet 16, 10 games left) was when Morales’ Mounds clinched 1st or 2nd in ’00 when Duke lost to Florida.  The common theme to both is a very poor Elite 8 (both averaging just 1.83 wins out of 8) performance by the entries.  Mia Culpa has a 62.5% chance to win the pool (80 of 128), Tarheel Blue Balls 18.0%, Barbs 12.5%, and Frost Toasted 11.7%.

For the Bonus, 29 are still alive to win the $40.  Technically, 27 since Mia Culpa and Frost Toasted will be ineligible since they will win money.  Currently, the ACC and Big 12 each have 10 wins (remember, the First Four ACC win does not count) and since Miami and Kansas play each other, one of those two conferences will get an 11th win.  Thus, the Winningest Conference could be the Big 12 with 11, 12, or 13 wins, the ACC with 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, or 16 wins, or the Big 12 and ACC tied with 11, 12, or 13 wins.  Remember, if the Big 12 and ACC tie, you need to have picked both conferences.  Thus, no one has the ACC with 13, 14 (Mia Culpa is ineligible), 15, or 16 wins, and no one has the ACC and Big 12 tied with 12 or 13 wins.  Tarheel Blue Balls has the ACC and Big 12 tied with 11 wins (also Big 10 but not applicable here) but is nearly guaranteed money (93%), thus this scenario could also not have a winner.  If no one wins the Winningest Conference, then Bonus2 will take effect which is the closest total points tiebreaker, meaning more entries could suddenly be eligible.

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   Tids & Bits – No one picked St. Peter’s, 117 Kansas, 4 UNC, and 2 Miami (Mia Culpa and Cover You Eyes (101st-T))… entries got an all-time worst average of only 0.73 with 49 going 0-4 (the previous 26 tourneys only had 116 entries go 0-4 on Day 2 of Sweet 16); for the Sweet 16, entries had an all-time worst 1.828 wins (1.833 wins in ’00) with 18 going 0-8 (only 4 in the previous 26 tourneys had gone 0-8 (’02, ’05, ’11, ’14))… the Big 12 is 10-5, the ACC 11-2 (10-2 in proper 64), Big Ten 9-9 (8-8 in proper 64), SEC 5-5, Big East 6-5, American 4-1, WCC 3-3, Pac 12 4-3, Atlantic 10 1-2, and MWC 0-4 (0-3 in proper 64)… of the 56 games, just five were one possession losses (not including regulation tie of an overtime game) (Creighton and St. Peter’s by 3 each, Miami by 2, and Illinois and Michigan St each won by 1)… Mia Culpa can get a max of 155 pts while Bulba and E Chu Ta (166th-T, 57) can only get 57… 6 lost UCLA as their champ and 4 lost Purdue… three 8 watched 6 5 of their Elite 8 teams lose and 36 34 saw 3 of their Final Four teams lose… no one Tarheel Blue Balls has all four Final Four teams alive and just 3 7 (Mia Culpa, MizzouTgr11 2, and Tarheel Blue Balls) have 3 of 4… it is perhaps not a coincidence that Mia Culpa and Frost Toasted are Stephen I’s and Tim W’s 3rd entry, respectively, and not their first – why would your “real” pick have Arkansas and Houston knocking off the top 2 teams in the country?… St. Peter’s is 2-1 vs #1/#2/#3 seeds while since ’00 (9 times Zags were a 1/2/3 seed), Gonzaga is 1-12 vs #1/#2/#3 seeds (3-14 overall)… in ’00, UNC also roared through the tourney as a #8 seed losing in the semifinals… Miami makes it 1st Elite 8 while it’s Kansas’ 25th and UNCs’ 29th… Providence missed their first 11 3-point attempts… Missouri (’02) and Oregon St (last year) were the only #12 seeds to make the Elite 8…

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Brackets being destroyed started with #2-Kentucky but yet we could have Duke v UNC and Kansas v Nova…
Scott

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