Category Archives: HWNCAA Pool 20

Issue # 25.6 “25 Years: The Prizes”

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Wednesday, April 22, 2020  **HAPPY 50th EARTH DAY**
[ 1-Entries | 2-Teams  | 3-Confs  | 4-Charities  | 5-Payments ]

25 YEARS:  $23,650 HAVE BEEN WON BY  88 PEOPLE
Bob G is all-time earner with $1,120  but Robinson C and Darryn B are only two-time champs

The Winners

SAFER-AT-HOME W/REQUIRED FACE COVERING, CA (smt)- While a lot of American citizens will receive up to $1200 from the Federal government (and the rich getting some as well), a good number of us middle class folks won’t, and so we hope to win in the pool (not this year though).  While our largest pot was $1780, what was the largest prize an individual could win?  So here is another 25 Year retrospective, this time on the various HWCI NCAA prizes.

Prize Distribution

As stated in the last issue, 100% of each entry fee (including ours) goes into prizes.  Always has, always will.  So if there are 100 entries, then there will be $1,000 doled out.  I started doing an update on prizes but started getting into how intricate the payments worked and when I was done, wrote more than 1,900 words, so this was split up (Payments and Prizes).  So we’ve had 2,365 total entries over 25 years which means we have doled out $23,650 ($940.60 avg). 

While we started off with just 3 prizes in ’95 (1st/2nd/3rd) we have expanded over the years to as many as 8 prizes in ’17 (1st-7th, Bonus).  We added a 4th place prize in ’98 if we got 25 or more entries and Scott H (1 year/1 entry, 1 prize/$20 total winnings) won the first 4th place prize ($20).  We added a $40 Bonus Prize in ’03 and Scott T (25/42, 5/$630) won the first Bonus.  We added a 5th place prize in ’08 if we got 100 or more entries and Jeff H (16/16, 3/$340) won the first 5th place prize ($60).  We added a 6th place prize in ’11 if we got 125 or more entries and Charles D (1 0/28, 1/$60) won the first 4th place prize ($60) with his 2nd entry.   We added a 7th place prize in ’17 if we got 165 or more but have only hit that once (’17).  Alex K (3/4, 1/$60) won the first 7th place prize ($60).

We never thought the pool would be as big as it today which is why the 5th place prize never really crossed our minds until we hit the magic 100 entry milestone.  So while there were 75 entries in between 4th and 5th (25:100), we quickly added another prize 25 entries later (100:125).  When we jumped 29 entries from 149 to 178, it was so big that another prize seemed warranted, though we were hesitant.  But we decided to add the 7th place prize to get the top 7 prizes back up to over 4% of the total entries (7/165 4.2%).  We may not add an 8th until we hit 200 (8/200 4%) but we shall see.  We have dipped below that 165 entry mark for the last two years.  That “4%” has been keeping an average of 75% of the entries still alive after the first weekend which is good.  We don’t want too few top prize spots that too many entries are eliminated and skip the Sweet 16 but we want some stress and mortality.  We do have outliers such as the upset-heavy ’18 pool where 51.9% of the 156 entries were eliminated (’cause a lot of favorites lost including #1 Virginia losing to #16 UMBC) and the mostly chalk ’09 pool where just 7.0% of the 114 entries were eliminated.

There have been 136 total prizes won by 96 different entries (88 people).  A quite healthy 24.1% (88/365) of all people have won something which I’m quite proud of because I like spreading the wealth and no one person has dominated.  Each person is allowed to enter up to 3 times.  Scott T has won the most times with 5 prizes ($630) including winning the pool in ’02.  He has submitted 42 total entries over 25 years.  His first entry has won 4 times (25 yrs, 4/$540), tying David F (25/26, 4/$490) for the most wins for an entry.  Including Scott T, a total of 7 people have won on at least two different entries.  Eric F is the only person to win on 3 different entries (1st entry in ’14, 2nd in ’17, and 3rd in ’19; 9/15, 3/$620).  Blakely H (10/28, 2/$315) is the only person to win on his/her 3rd entry twice.  Mike W (4/12, 1/$170) and Ron E (12/28, 1/$320) are the only others to win on his/her 3rd entry.  Dual and triple entries are quite common but no one has won a prize twice in the same year.  Yet.

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Issue # 25.5 “25 Years: The Payments”

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Saturday, April 18, 2020 
[ 1-Entries | 2-Teams  | 3-Confs  | 4-Charities ]

25 YEARS:  ONLINE PAYMENTS RULE TODAY
Cash, check, and even money orders were how we got our money in the beginning

1995 to 2020 Inflation

SAFER-AT-HOME W/FACE COVERING, CA (smt)- With unemployment claims at record levels due to the effects of COVID-19, ten dollars is something to save now rather than spend on a really, cool betting pool.   While $10 in 1995 is now worth almost $17 ($16.97) in today’s dollars, our entry fee has never gone up.  Or think of it this way, the entry fee back in 1995 would be less than $6 ($5.90) today.  So you are getting more bang for you buck with each passing year.  What has been going up is the number of entries, and thus, the challenge of collecting all that money.  I the beginning there was just cash which would be handed to Andy F or David F and we had just 12 people to worry about in ’95.  But with 111 people like last year?  How do we do that?  So here is another 25 Year retrospective, this time on the various HWCI NCAA payments.

Unlike a lot of other paid tournament pools out there, there is no administrative fee, free entry by the admins, or kickbacks taken by David or I, despite the vast number of hours working on the pool (and David funding to run the server our pool is run on).  100% of each entry fee (including ours) goes into prizes.  Always has, always will.  Like I said in the previous issue, any tips or “extra” people try to sneak in as “thanks”, I put right into the First Four for Charity donation.

So if there are 100 entries, then there will be $1,000 doled out.  Now, every year, there are always stragglers and regulars that pay late or sometimes miss (when I get too lazy to remind again), but I always cover so there will be $1,000 to give out regardless if I’ve collected it all by the end of the tournament.  Most of these are my dear longtime friends who I think I’ll see soon to collect but family and work get in the way.  A lot have given up and gone the online payment or check way but there are a few I’ll have to remind at the next BBQ. 

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Issue # 25.4 “25 Years: The Charities”

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Thursday, April 16, 2020  ***HAPPY BIRTHDAY SON!!!***
[ 1-Entries | 2-Teams  | 3-Confs ]

25 YEARS:  10 DIVERSE CHARITIES
A total of $325 this year donated to Direct Relief – COVID-19 Fund

SAFER-AT-HOME, CA (smt)- Well, they cancelled the tournament.  But they can’t cancel our good will.  For the 10th straight year, the HWCI NCAA First Four for Charity asked pool friends to reply back with quick answers to enter this free contest where I would donate $2 per entry to a worthy charity or cause.  This year, due to the extreme times we live in, was coronavirus-related and picked Direct Relief since they had a dedicated COVID-19 fund to donate directly to.  Direct Relief is coordinating with public health authorities, nonprofit organizations and businesses in the U.S. and globally to provide personal protective equipment and essential medical items to health workers responding to coronavirus.

1st First Four for Charity Email

Because there was no tournament, this year the question was “Who would you have picked to win the tournament?” instead of the usual First Four winners and margin of victory.  We did get 20 responses back and although we didn’t hit my stated target goal of 25 entries, I still will add in $25 for a total of $65.  Michael W and a very kind-hearted friend (who wishes to remain anonymous) will separately donate (since there is no pool, no sense for me to be the middle-man to collect funds) and add a combined $260 for a grand total of $325, our second highest donation-ever, after last year’s $460 to the Boys and Girls Club of America.  How did we get here?  Here is another 25 Year retrospective, this time on our HWCI NCAA First Four for Charity contest.

Curse the NCAA and their greed!  In ’11, there were going to be 68 teams (instead of 65) but instead of the worst 8 conferences playing for the four games, it would be just four, and the other four would be the last four at-large berths.  This meant that we went from a “don’t care” for Tuesday (didn’t matter who won #64/#65 Opening Round, every sane person would pick them to lose) to how do we deal with the 2 games featuring at-large teams on Tuesday/Wednesday?  Surely, #11-#13 teams have won before and people could pick them depending which team won.  Do we make them pick these First Four games by Tuesday?  No, not feasible.  We would just allow people to change their picks if they wanted after the First Four games.  Luckily, not many people did so it wasn’t a big logistical nightmare we thought (100 people suddenly changing their picks Wed night/Thu morning).

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Issue # 25.3 “25 Years: The Conferences”

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Tuesday, April 7, 2020 [ 1-Entries | 2-Teams ]

25 YEARS:  38 CONFERENCES HAVE EXISTED IN OUR POOLS
30-32 automatic bids each year, 9 conf never getting more than 1 bid

Teams and Titles by Conference

EL SEGUNDO/HOME, CA (smt)- Would the Big Ten (B10) have gotten a record 12 (of 14) teams into the tournament?  More likely 10 which would’ve been the second-highest ever (Big East (BE) 11 in ’11).  Would the Big Ten top the record 19 wins by the Atlantic Coast (ACC) in ’16?  But we’ll never know.  So without a tournament, here is another 25 Year retrospective, this time focusing on the conferences who have made the tournament (the proper 64 that is).

What we do know is that for the past 25 years, 38 conferences have existed with only the American West (AW) (’95-’96) and Great West (GW) (’10-’13) not putting any teams in (no automatic bid due to not enough teams in conference those years).  Currently, all 32 Division I conferences get an automatic bid (though again, four of the worst conference tournament winners will vie in First Four).  Nine conferences have never gotten an at-large bid.  From ’01-’10 the two lowest auto bid tournament champions (team #64 and #65) played in the Opening Round game.  From ’11 to present, the four lowest auto bid champions play in the First Four.  13 conferences have put their auto bid team in the Opening Round/First Four with the Southwestern Athletic (SWA) doing it 11 of 19 years.  Because they have lost 9 of those Opening Round/First Four games, the SWA have only placed a team in the proper 64 bracket 16 of 25 years.

The Atlantic 10 (A10) is a perfect 3-0 in the First Four with five others 2-0 (America East (AE) – keeping a streak of all 25 years with just one team in proper 64, Big West (BW), Colonial Athletic (CAA), Ohio Valley (OVC), and Summit (SUM)).  The Pac-12 (P12) is 3-4 (including losing both in ’18, the only conference to ever have 2 teams in First Four) while the Big 12 (B12) has appeared just once (won in ’17).  The Northeast (NEC) has appeared in 7 straight First Four games (’13 to present) going 3-4 (4-5 overall).  The Mid-Eastern Athletic (MEA) has lost 3 straight First Four games (’17 to present) (3-6 overall).  Despite this, the MEA actually has 3 wins in the tournament (#15 Coppin St ’97, #15 Hampton ’01, and #15 Norfolk St in ’12).

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Issue # 25.2 “25 Years: The Teams”

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Tuesday, March 24, 2020
25 YEARS:  281 TEAMS HAVE MADE PROPER 64 IN OUR POOLS
Ignoring Opening Round and First Four losers, we have seen at least one new team each year

EL SEGUNDO, CA (smt)- In the final AP pool, teams 2 through 7 are not your usual suspects with only Florida St (ACC), Baylor (Big 12), and Creighton (Big East) coming from the Power 5 conferences.  Gonzaga (WCC), Dayton (Atlantic 10), and San Diego St (Mountain West) would have provided some much needed parity.  But alas, none of those teams will count.  So without a tournament, here is another 25 Year retrospective, this time focusing on the teams who have made the tournament (the proper 64 that is). 

Top Seed in NCAA Tournament
Top Ranked Team to Win it All

So when the NCAA tried to mess up brackets by adding a 65th team (Opening Round 64v65) in 2001 due to the new Mountain West Conference taking away an at-large bid or when they added three more at-large teams to create the First Four (well, the First Round until 2016) in 2011, we ignored them.  The proper 64 bracket that starts Thursday at 9:15 am is what matters in this pool.  If you pick your bracket early you’ll just select “Team A/Team B” to advance and as always, you can change your picks up until the deadline.

Duke has been the top seed (#1 overall) 6 times including four in a row from ’99-’02  with Kentucky (4) and Kansas (3) right behind as shown in the table on the left.  From ’95-’03 the top seed was determined by the final AP pool before the tournament and from ’04-present the top seed is announced as part the NCAA’s ranked seeds listing.  UMass (’96) is probably the oddest top seed and local favorite UCLA was only the top seed in our first pool in ’95.  Five top seeds went on to win the tournament (’95 UCLA, ’01 Duke, ’07 Florida, ’12 Kentucky, ’13 Louisville).  Only twice did the top 2 seeds make the final (’99 Duke v UConn, ’05 Illinois v UNC) and twice did none of the top 4 seeds make the Final Four (’06, ’11).   UConn, however, has won the most titles (4) with Duke, UNC, and Kentucky winning 3 each in the past 25 years.  A #1 seed has won the title 17 times with UConn (#7E) the worst seed to win the title. 

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Issue # 25.1 “25 Years: The Entries”

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Wednesday, March 18, 2020  **HELP support Direct Relief’s COVID-19 Response Fund (deadline Thu 9:15 am PDT) **

25 YEARS:  365 PEOPLE HAVE PLAYED IN OUR POOLS
As deadline nears, we can predict how many entries we might get

EL SEGUNDO, CA (smt)- Could a non-power 5 school such as Dayton, Gonzaga, or San Diego St have won it all?  We’ll never know.  Well, Sportsline ran a simulation and Dayton won (yay, Flyers).  This is the start of a series of updates reflecting on the 25 years of our HWCI NCAA pool and a peak behind the curtain of how the pool is run.  Kind of a nice number to do so, so thanks NCAA for cancelling this year’s tournament due to coronavirus disease (COVID-19) concerns.  Whereas pro athletes can wait this out and as leagues have previously self-inflicted on their seasons voluntarily (NBA lockout 8 months in 2011-12 (82->66 game season), NHL lockout 1994-95 (84->48 game season), NHL lockout 2004-05 (cancelling entire season and Stanley Cup), MLB strike in 1994 (cancelling the World Series!), NFL strike 7 weeks in 1982 (16->9 game season)), these amateur athletes have worked hard for years for an opportunity to play in March Madness and will move on to their next phase in life (attempt to go pro, graduate school, the working world).

When CBS (or that awful year it was on TBS) finally gets through announcing the bracket on Selection Sunday, where feasible, David and myself are busy reading up the homepage (http://www.hwci.com/ncaa) for people to enter their picks.  Sometimes, this is very late Sunday (or very early Monday) and sometimes, like in 2006 where a hard drive crash kept the online entry disabled until 1 pm Monday or in 2014 where java security errors kept the updated form down until 2 am Tuesday, we experience anti-technology days that wreak havoc on our sanity!

Table of entries since 1999
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10th HWCI NCAA First Four for Charity

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Direct Relief
COVID-19 Response Fund

Wow, in a span of a couple days, dominos fell and hit every corner of the sport world, with the NCAA cancelling March Madness on March 12.  Today was supposed to be Selection Sunday and the kickoff for our 26th HWCI NCAA Pool.  So the 26th will have to wait until March 18, 2021.  BUT, I have decided to continue with the free 10th HWCI NCAA First Four for Charity where we have raised $1,158.08 to 9 different charities including a record-breaking $460 last year to the Boys & Girls Club of America.  

So I want every one of you to reply (Comment, Email,
post to Facebook, tweet @HWCI_Pools) with the TEAM you were going to pick to win the tournament (Kansas #1 AP, Gonzaga #1 NET, Dayton the darling fav).  Deadline will be the 9 am PDT Thursday.  Goal is 25+ replies!

For every reply back (anyone can reply, friends, family, etc), I will donate $2 to Direct Relief’s COVID-19 campaign where they are coordinating with public health authorities, nonprofit organizations and businesses in the U.S., China and globally to provide personal protective equipment and essential medical items to health workers responding to coronavirus (COVID-19). This is one of the highest rated charities that has a way to direct the donation directly to the response to the coronovirus.

Also, I don’t want to be the middle man with no pool, so if you donate to Direct Relief yourself, please email me the amount (up to $10) and I will include the numbers in the final total.

As a bonus, in the end, if we top 25 replies this year, I’ll donate an additional $25.  Also, invite your friends and people can enter (since it’s free) this charity contest but not our main pool. Last year, we not only set a record of $230 in donations from myself and fellow pool players, my company was able to match (such a painful process and never did see the final confirmation) making the donation total $460!

#NotMe! See you in 2021!

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Less than a day after announcing going ahead with the tournament without fans, the NCAA decided to pull the plug and cancelled March Madness. After the NBA had suspended play due to a Utah player testing positive for the coronavirus, Duke and Kansas strongly hinting they wouldn’t travel for the NCAA tournament, and after major leagues such as MLS and NHL paused their regular seasons (even minor ones like XFL), it was only a matter of time before everyone else followed suit. No one wants to be the “one” league that was defiant and then had an incident where players, coaches, and fans were exposed to the coronavirus. Better to be safe than sorry. Whether you agree or disagree, having a united front makes these decisions easier and will help slow the spread of the coronavirus. For some reason the USA cases went down 44 to 1,268 now (was 1,312). The USA only has 0.9% of all confirmed cases but that is likely to go up as more people get tested.

Despite California Governor’s call for no mass gatherings, after filling up gas I walked into Costco in Hawthorne, and they are definitely not following the rules! More than 150+ people packed like sardines, most standing in line all the way to the back of the store, everyone less than 6 feet from each other!

I am impressed with both the NCAA (all sport tournaments in Winter/Spring were cancelled as well) cancelling their big moneymaker (though the cynical side says it would have cost them more headaches and money holding games in empty arenas) and the lowly XFL which says they will still pay players and allow them to sign early with the NFL. Very classy.

Of course, thousands of athlete’s dreams (especially those who weren’t going to go pro) were crushed (#1 Kansas might get the title?), lots of Average Joes/Janes are now out of a job, and coaches may not get their postseason bonus money. Okay, that last one I don’t feel too sorry for.

As for our 26th HWCI NCAA Pool, the 26th will now be in 2021. At least the cancellation came before Selection Sunday so I don’t have to refund payments. Turning lemons into lemonade, this will give me a stress-free opportunity to reflect on the 25 years of the pool and will post periodically throughout March.

Also, while there is no First Four, there will still be the 10th HWCI NCAA First Four For Charity and an email will go out on no-longer-Selection Sunday on details on the charity and how I/you could donate to it.

Oh, Hi, Oh, Sorry, No Fans Allowed

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Active COVID-19 Cases in USA

Coming off the heels of the Ohio Governor banning large gatherings in the state (affecting Dayton’s First Four and Cleveland’s 1st/2nd Round games), the NCAA followed suit announcing (3/11/20) all March Madness games will be played without fans (in addition to all other NCAA sport tournaments such as the Frozen Four). This extreme precaution is an effort to not inadvertently contribute to mass community transmission of the coronavirus (aka, COVID-19) which has more than 126,000 confirmed cases and killed 4,638 people around the world (about 2/3rds from China). The USA has seen steady growth of daily cases and are now up to 1,312 (42 deaths, about 70% from Washington). Other sporting events have been affected as well.

Now big schools like Duke and Kansas will know what it feels like to be the Florida Marlins, Jacksonville Jaguars, or Ottawa Senators playing in front of sparse crowds with just essential staff, select media, and limited family members attending the games. The NCAA still sees incredible value for the athletes and teams who have worked hard for 1-4 years to make the big dance that, for now, the games will go on (unlike the Ivy League which just awarded Yale their entry, cancelling their conference tournament – sorry Harvard, Princeton, and Brown players). This offers the best chance at completing the tournament even if panic and chaos surrounds them in the next few weeks.

So how will this affect our 26th HWCI NCAA Pool? Nothing changes (for now) unless it is shown the virus can be transmitted via internet web entry submissions. However, possible clarifications will be:

  • For a given game, if one team forfeits (e.g., a team doesn’t want to travel), it counts as a loss just like any other outcome and their opponent will be the “winner”.
  • For a given game, if both teams forfeit, whatever method the NCAA uses to advance one of the teams to the next round (e.g., better seed advances, coin toss, coolest mascot) will be the “winner”.
  • If the tournament is postponed or paused, we will monitor and make a determination (e.g., if NCAA postpones Regional Finals/Final Four by a week or two to move into smaller arenas, we will just wait a week or two; if NCAA postpones until start of fall season (November), then we will probably refund).
  • If the tournament is cancelled, I have to go through the painful process of issuing refunds to everyone 🙂

Let’s hope and pray the coronavirus can be mitigated long enough (and hope it’s like the flu and is seasonal) for a possible vaccine next year. In the meantime, take precautions yourself and read about the latest at the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and Prevention website.

IEEE & Rutgers

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IEEE, the largest professional engineering society in the world with more than 400,000 members, is headquartered in Piscataway, New Jersey. So at times, when we have IEEE-related meetings, in order for as many staff to help us, we stay in New Brunswick, New Jersey several miles away. Here, is the home of Rutgers University within walking distance from the Hyatt Hotel we have our meetings at. It’s a pretty campus with old classic buildings.

Well, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights may have just secured their first tourney appearance since 1991 guaranteeing that every year of our pool has seen at least one new team. Rutgers’ overtime road win over fellow bubble team Purdue gave them a key 2nd road victory (yes, just 2), a better than .500 Big Ten record (11-9), and their first 20-win season since 1983 to go along with their top 35 NET. Their at-large bid moved from probable First In/Out to just “In”.

Meanwhile, a pair of late 3s provided drama as Utah St secured a berth by beating #5 San Diego St. and USC stunned UCLA by two in their rivalry game. SDSU won their first 26 games before ending the season 4-2. Utah St was likely out but are now in the tourney, meaning one less at-large berth available (since SDSU will get one). UCLA had a chance for the share of the Pac-12 title but fell short, and with their 70s NET and some really bad losses, will need a good showing in the conf tourney to solidify their spot in the First Four In rather than First Four Out. USC is likely in with the win.

Our 26th HWCI NCAA Pool begins next Sunday (yikes, just lost an hour right now… it’s 3 am)!