2019 HWCI NCAA Pool Update

TOP SIX AND BONUS WILL WIN $1,620 POT
20 of 23 eliminated entries eligible for Bonus in our Silver Anniversary

GOLETA, CA (smt)- With all four #1s, #2s, #3s and two #4s and a #5 and #12 in the Sweet 16, the sum seed total of 49 is the lowest since seeding began. #1W-Gonzaga and #1MW-UNC have closed out games strongly while #1E-Duke needed some luck and non-whistles and #1S-Virginia trailed #16S-Gardner-Webb by 14 at one point. Beleaguered conference Pac 12 has its #12S-Oregon in the mix while the ACC (5), SEC (4), and the Big Ten (3) continue to dominate.

With the mostly chalk Sweet 16, one entry (Center Road) around the world actually has a perfect bracket, and he didn't even know it! I use this sometimes in my statistics class showing the 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,780,000 odds of picking a perfect bracket or if you do some weighting of seeds, maybe get it down to 1 in 67,582,737,423. Still virtually impossible. How has our group done in 25 years? No one has gone a perfect first round with Air Fabone 23 (Scott T) going 31-1 in 2017. With Honey Badger (Scott D) going 16-0 this year, he became the first to have a perfect Round 2. What the future lie? Van&Sam (Van P) in 2007 was able to 8-0 in the Sweet 16, 4-0 in the Elite 8, and 2-0 for the Final Four. But she missed the champion (Florida beat Ohio St)! Unfortunately, Center Road was not eligible for Warren Buffet's million dollar for life Sweet 16 challenge!

While you are taking a breather, take a listen to "Blow Me Away" from one of the unsigned bands Paul T (Poolrider (149th-T, 70 pts) helps promote and always his 3rd entry, Recent Rumors (131st-T, 75), a pop rock band from Dallas). Our 25th year saw a 162 entries from 111 people. We will have six money spots and we have $1,620 to divvy out. The top prize will be $645, $25 more than last year. The prize distribution is listed below and as always, all fee money goes into prizes. So we have those top six spots plus the Bonus. What's the Bonus? Read on...

As it has been for the past 15 years, the Conference Wins is the Bonus Prize (as detailed below) (aka, Bonus1). However, if no one wins it, the Bonus2 takes effect and the entry who is closest to the Total Points in Final tiebreaker gets the Bonus Prize. We have used this Bonus to give hope to those who get eliminated early as only those who do not finish in the top 6 will be eligible to win. Rules follow below...

Bonus1 - Winningest Conference

When you completed your online entry and saw your picks (to print out), some of you might have been wondering what the heck "Winningest Conference(s): ?? | Wins: #" meant. And thus, subliminally, you were also picking which conference would get the most wins in the tournament and how many wins that conference would get via your direct picks. Neat, eh? So that output, which in my case (Silver Fabone), says "Winningest Conference(s): ACC | Wins: 20", means that by the way I picked my bracket (and please laugh), the ACC (regardless of which ACC teams win) will get the most wins with 20.

The rules of how to win this Bonus Prize is as follows:

1. First Four wins do not count
2. The top 6 finishers are not eligible (so no double-dipping)
3. Ties broken by championship final score total
4. If there is *still* a tie, money is split
5. If 2 (or more) conferences tie for the most wins, both (or all) conferences must have been picked correctly
6. If entry has 2 or more conferences tied for most wins, only one must be correct to win (e.g. entry picks Pac 12 and Big 12 with 11 wins a piece and the Big 12 ends up winning the most games with 11, then contestant wins)

And, the Bonus Prize is worth $40, which is four years worth of losing brackets. Last year, the Big 12 got the winningest conference with 12 wins. But if no one wins the Winningest Conference, then the Bonus2 takes effect. See below...

Bonus2 - Total Points in Final

If no one wins the Bonus1, then a second Bonus opportunity takes effect. The entry closest to the "Total points in final" tiebreaker wins the $40. In order to reward better play, the tiebreaker is the higher placement in the final pool standings.

The rules of how to win this Bonus Prize is as follows:

1. The top 6 finishers not eligible (so no double-dipping)
2. "Closest" can be above or below actual total (if actual is 144, 143 & 145 are both 1 point away)
3. Ties broken by highest placement (i.e., point total) in final pool standings
4. If there is *still* a tie, money is split

Prize Breakdown

We are officially at 162 entries ($1,620). So, here is the official prize breakdown:

     1st Place = $645.00
     2nd Place = $330.00
     3rd Place = $225.00
     4th Place = $170.00
     5th Place = $ 125.00
     6th Place = $ 85.00
     Bonus Prize =$ 40.00

Bonus1 Prize Analysis

What this means is that of the 23 entries that were eliminated from the top 6 prizes, 20 of those entries are back into play! Overall, 155 of 162 entries still have a chance for Bonus1 thanks to the strong showing of the ACC thus far. And 159 of 162 (98.1%) have a chance of either the top 6 or bonus.

If you don't have your bracket, then go to the "For the Record" page and pick your nickname from the drop down box. Because of the First Four, what you see might change (since the Pac 12's Arizona St won the First Four game you'd have to add your predicted Arizona St wins to your total) so go to the Bonus page for your official picks. Remember that the First Four wins do not count in the Winningest Conference calculation (that is why the Pac 12 only shows 3 wins below where it really has 4 due to Arizona St's First Four win). Right now, of the 8 conferences represented in the Sweet 16, 3 conferences have a chance to get or share the most number of wins:

           Teams  Curr   Max Poss
Conf.      Left   Wins   Wins
-------    ----- ----   --------
ACC          5     10    21
Big10        3     10     19
SEC         4      9     19
x-Big12      1    5     18
x-American   1      3      7
x-Pac 12     1      3^     7
x-WCC        1      2      6
    x-Eliminated ^-Arizona St win in First Four does not count

The ACC is guaranteed to get a 11th win (Virginia Tech-Duke). The ACC, with 3 #1 seeds, led with 145 of 162 entries thinking they would be the winningest conference followed by the the Big 10 with 13, and the SEC with 9. Unsurprisingly, no one had the Pac 12. 33 entries each picked the ACC with 18 wins.

Below are the teams in the conferences that matter for the Bonus1.

Conf.   Teams Left (1st Rnd W-L, 2nd Rnd W-L)
-----   ----------
ACC     DUKE, UNC, VIRGINIA, FLORIDA ST, VIRGINIA TECH (5-2, 5-0)
SEC     KENTUCKY, LSU, TENNESSEE, AUBURN (5-2, 4-1)
Big10   MICHIGAN, PURDUE, MICHIGAN ST (7-1, 3-4)
Big12   TEXAS TECH (4-2, 1-3)
AAC     HOUSTON (2-1, 1-1)
Pac12   OREGON (2-1, 1-1)
WCC     GONZAGA (1-1, 1-0)

It's much too much to go through all the possibilities with four rounds remaining. But, if you do have a chance, this will guide you to which team to root for based on the conference the team is in.

Here is the link to what everyone picked. If your nickname is in red, that means you're eliminated from the top 6 prizes; if your conference is in red, you're eliminated from the Bonus1. The eligibility for the Bonus2 won't be discussed unless needed.

--------
Well, silver may be a stretch, cold hard check is what it will be...
Scott