Sunday, March 19, 2017 
Issue # 5.2.2 "Finish Strong"
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CERRITOS APT (smt)- No single play to discuss today (i.e., no dumb foul, no dumb flagrant-1, no dumb technical), just pure basketball drama.  #1S-UNC and #3MW-Oregon went on a doughnut run with the Tar Heels rallying from 5 down with 2:56 left to score the last 12 points and the Ducks rallying from 4 down with 2:01 left to score the last 7 points to knock off hopefuls #8S-Arkansas and #11MW-Rhode Island, respectively. 

Other teams turned it on as well with #3S-UCLA down by one finishing the game on a 33-20 run in the last 13:32, #7MW-Michigan down by two finishing the game on a 24-18 run in the last 9:16, #1MW-Kansas up by one finishing the game on a 36-17 run in the last 12:00, #3E-Baylor down two finishing the game on a 17-11 run in the last 4:42 (a sequence that began with Manu Lecomte scoring 8 points in 45 seconds), and #8E-South Carolina down two finishing on a 42-33 run in the last 12:03. #2S-Kentucky narrowly won the '14 rematch vs. #10S-Wichita St taking a tie game with 12:15 left and holding on to a three-point win thanks to two gutsy blocks on the final two Shocker possessions.  On the last one, it looked like the Wichita St. player could've leaned in to draw a foul on the three-point shot but didn't.

Comeback kids #11E-USC never trailed by their magic number of 10 (just 9) and took the lead with under 5 minutes to go but couldn't hold on against Baylor.  #11MW-Rhode Island played well but scored just 26 points in the second half allowing Oregon to rally.  Playing in their home state, South Carolina scored 65 points in the second half against #2E-Duke.

King Kobra increased the lead to four points (96) over Hrosen2 and EEChick1400.  Five went 7-1 for the day with only 9ers in'18 (7th-Tied, 88)getting at least five right the previous day.  Ten went 12-4 for the round.  On the flip side, 13 went 3-5 today and Lavar Ball (178th, 59) only getting 5 of 16 correct for the round to drop to last.

19 lost Duke as their champ and 52 more lost them in their Final Four. Five (5) lost Louisville as their champ and 27 more in their Final Four.  In terms of picking up points, 20 have Baylor, 18 West Virginia, 14 Butler, 12 Michigan, 12 Purdue, 10 Florida, 2 South Carolina, and one each for Wisconsin and Xavier advancing to the Elite 8.  In the big UCLA-Kentucky matchup, 87 picked Kentucky advancing and 79 have UCLA advancing to the Elite 8.

With the opening weekend done, judgment day arrives.  With 178 entries, 45 have been eliminated (25%) from finishing in the top 7 money spots.  We'll see later this week if any of the 45 are alive to win the $40 Bonus (as well as revealing the prize amounts for the top 7).  Sixty (60) still have a chance to win the pool with Pac Attack (5th-T, 89) having the best chance (9.2%).  Our current leader only has a 4.5% chance (7th) though he has the best overall chance to win money (38.4%).  Eight others have at least a 20% chance to win money.

Despite being tied for 5th, BogutBrokeItAgain can't finish higher than 3rd.  Despite being tied for 175th place, Fefe (64) can still win 7th.  Despite being tied for 158th place (70), both Wounded Duck and Endless Rebels can still win the pool.

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   Tids & Bits - everyone averaged 9.2 wins for the round, exactly our 23-year average; in the first round, the average was 25.2 which is the second-largest ever (26.2 in '00)... the 25% eliminated entries is just a bit higher than the 22.5% average over the 23 pools... the ACC which started with 9 teams is down to 1 team, losing #2MW-Louisville and Duke... the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and Pac 12 each have 3 teams in the Sweet 16 with the Big East getting 2 and WCC 1... 25 picked Michigan and 5 picked South Carolina; at least 138 picked the others except for Baylor (89)... the South in the only region with the top 4 seeds left... Bobbydoonigan (161st-T, 69) can only get 8 more points while 9ers in '18 could reach a total of 162... Defending pool champ 2016 Champs (94th-T, 77) won't repeat and only has a 3 in 32,768 chance to win money...

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From Hero to nearly Zero (can't finish higher than 3rd)...
Scott