The 17th HWCI NCAA Tournament Pool

HW Basketball Logo 2011 HWCI NCAA Pool Update
[ Poolraider (aka Paul T and aka The Downtown Fiction) assures me this will be the hottest new band for teenage girls... Listen now!]
Tuesday, March 22, 2011 
Issue # 7.3.3 "Pool Expands to Six Money Spots" 
[ Home | Blog | Facebook | Updates ]
RECORD NUMBER OF ENTRIES WARRANTS A 6TH PRIZE
Two eliminated entries are among 21 still alive for the Bonus Prize

EL SEGUNDO, CA/CERRITOS, CA (smt)-  Apparently there are only 11 decent teams in the Big East as just two remain, a #3 and #11 seed.  Considering all but 3 entries had the Big East as one of their winningest conference(s), only 21 entries remain alive for this Bonus.  What's a Bonus?  Read on...

With the tournament expanding to 68 teams, we decided to expand the money spots to six.  Actually, it's because of the record 125 entries that is causing us to add a 6th spot for the first-time ever.  So whoever finishes 6th can thank us like I would've had this been place last year (yes, I finished 6th with $0).  The top prize will be a record-breaking $515 which enough for 125 gallons of gas in California or 0.026% of what Charlie Sheen used to get paid for a single episode.  The prize distribution is listed below and as always, all fee money goes into prizes.

As it has been the past seven years, the Conference Wins is the Bonus Prize (as detailed below) (aka, Bonus1). However, if no one wins it, the Bonus2 takes effect and the entry who is closest to the Total Points in Final tiebreaker gets the Bonus Prize. This is the eighth year we have used this Bonus to give hope to those who get eliminated early as only those who do not finish in the top 6 will be eligible to win. Rules follow below...

Bonus1 - Winningest Conference

When you completed your online entry and saw your picks (to print out), some of you might have been wondering what the heck "Winningest Conference(s): ?? | Wins: #" meant. And thus, subliminally, you were also picking which conference would get the most wins in the tournament and how many wins that conference would get via your direct picks. Neat, eh? So that output, which in my case (The Fabone NC-17), says "Winningest Conference(s): Big East | Wins: 18" (coincidentally, the same as the past 2 years), means that by the way I picked my bracket (and don't laugh... or do), the Big East conference will get the most wins with 18.

The rules of how to win this Bonus Prize is as follows:

1. First Four wins do not count (<---this is new starting this year)
2. The top 6 finishers not eligible (so no double-dipping)
3. Ties broken by championship final score total
4. If there is *still* a tie, money is split
5. If 2 (or more) conferences tie for the most wins, both (or all) conferences must have been picked correctly
6. If entry has 2 or more conferences tied for most wins, only one must be correct to win (e.g. entry picks Pac 10 and Big 12 with 11 wins a piece and the Big 12 ends up winning the most games with 11, then contestant wins)

And, the Bonus Prize is worth $40, which is four years worth of losing brackets. Last year, the ACC, Big 10, and Big 12 were the winningest conference with 9 wins (picked correctly by no one). But if no one correctly picks the winningest conference and wins, then the Bonus2 takes effect.

Bonus2 - Total Points in Final

If no one wins the Bonus1, then a second Bonus opportunity takes effect. The entry closest to the "Total points in final" tiebreaker wins the $40. In order to reward better play, the tiebreaker is the higher placement in the final pool standings.

The rules of how to win this Bonus Prize is as follows:

1. The top 6 finishers not eligible (so no double-dipping)
2. "Closest" can be above or below actual total (if actual is 144, 143 & 145 are both 1 point away)
3. Ties broken by highest placement (i.e., point total) in final pool standings
4. If there is *still* a tie, money is split


Prize Breakdown

We are officially at 125 entries ($1,250). So, here is the official prize breakdown:

   1st Place =  $515.00
   2nd Place =  $260.00
   3rd Place =  $175.00
   4th Place =  $120.00
   5th Place =  $ 80.00
   6th Place =  $ 60.00
   Bonus Prize =$ 40.00

Bonus1 Prize Analysis

What this means is that of the 38 entries that were eliminated from the top 6 prizes, only two (For Narnia and Gus Johnson!) are back into play!  So 21 of 117 entries still have a chance for Bonus1 (which is not as bad as last year where only 9 of 117 were alive for Bonus1). 

If you don't have your bracket, then go to the "For the Record" page and pick your nickname from the drop down box. Because of the First Four, what you see might change (probably not since the Big East was not part of the First Four) so go to the Bonus page for your official picks.  Remember that the First Four wins do not count in the Winningest Conference calculation (that is why the ACC only shows 6 wins below where it really has 7 due to Clemson's First Four win).  Right now, of the 10 conferences represented in the Sweet 16, only 5 conferences have a chance to get or share the most number of wins:

           Teams  Curr  Max Poss
Conf. Left Wins Wins
------- ----- ---- --------
BigEast 2 9 15
Big10 2 7 14
ACC 3 6^ 15
MWC 2 4 11
SEC 2 4 11
x-Pac10 1 4 8
x-Big12 1 4 8
x-CAA 1 3^ 7
x-Atl10 1 3 7
x-Horizon 1 2 6
x-Eliminated ^-Clemson, VCU wins in First Four do not count
With a record 11 teams, 122 of 125 entries have at least the Big East as their (or one of their) winningest conference. One has the ACC (Keebler's Three Sum), one has the Big 10 (Jump Off That Sofa), and one has the SEC (the always loyal GatorsReturnToGlory).  Four share the Big East with another conference.  All in all, a disastrous 104 entries (mostly those who had the Big East with 16 or more wins as the winningest conference) were eliminated from the Bonus1 prize. The 21 remaining entries will have to root for teams from the conference you picked.

Below are the teams in the conferences that matter for the Bonus1
.
Conf.   Teams Left (2nd Rnd W-L, 3rd Rnd W-L)
----- ----------
Big10
OHIO ST, WISCONSIN (5-2, 2-3)
MWC SDSU, BYU (2-1, 2-0)
BigEast CONN, MARQUETTE (7-4, 2-5)
SEC FLORIDA, KENTUCKY (2-3, 2-0)
ACC DUKE, FLORIDA ST, CLEMSON (3-1, 3-0)
It's much too much to go through all the possibilities with four rounds remaining. But, if you do have a chance, this will guide you to which team to root for based on the conference the team is in.

Here is the link to what everyone picked. If your nickname is in red, that means you're eliminated from the top 6 prizes; if your conference is in red, you're eliminated from the Bonus1. The eligibility for the Bonus2 won't be discussed unless needed.

   Tids & Bits - If we kept the number of money spots to 5, only one more entry would've been eliminated; if we increased to 7 money spots, just 3 more entries would've been alive... if we were to have upset-weighted points, only 33 would be alive with just four vying for first, so not very competitive... but if we did it for the Bonus, the winners can't win so that opens up those in 6th-12th place with a chance to win something; I'm monitoring how it would've worked this year to see if we want this introduced next year... unless no one wins the Bonus1, 36 entries are eliminated from both the top prizes and Bonus... Additional notes from the pool:  Despite being tied for 120th place (61 pts), Runs With Crackers can still win 2nd place while Keebler's Three Sum can win it all despite being tied for 117th (62) due to his UNC over Florida St. pick... Ghettofabulous and PFC Bradley Manning have the distinction of being having the most points while being eliminated (42nd, 74)... GoHuskies is doing great tied for 8th place (81) but can't be our champion...  LLOYD CHRISTMAS sits in 36th-T (75) and lost both his finalists, 3 of his 4 Final Four teams and can't get more than 97 points (our leader has 94), but that could still incredibly earn him 2nd place... C$ (79th-T, 69) has a 2 in 32,768 (0.006%) chance of winning 6th place... a couple of couples were eliminated from both the Bonus and Prize money with Bix Pix/Ghettofabulous and Chief's Revenge/Chief's Wife gone...

[Graph of Number of Entries]

--------
Big East has gotta stop collapsing like this
...

Scott
© 1995-2011 HWCI Productions
HWCI circa 1990