2009 HWCI NCAA Pool Update

Monday, March 23, 2009
Issue # 7.2.3 "Every Entry But 2 Can Win Money!"
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As it has been the past five years, the Conference Wins is the Bonus Prize (as detailed below) (aka, Bonus1). However, if no one wins it, the Bonus2 takes effect and the entry who is closest to the Total Points in Final tiebreaker gets the Bonus Prize. This is the seventh year we have used this Bonus to give hope to those who get eliminated early as only those who do not finish in the top 5 will be eligible to win. Rules follow below...

Bonus1 - Winningest Conference

When you completed your online entry and saw your picks (to print out), some of you might have been wondering what the heck "Winningest Conference(s): ?? | Wins: #" meant. And thus, subliminally, you were also picking which conference would get the most wins in the tournament and how many wins that conference would get via your direct picks. Neat, eh? So that output, which in my case (Ides of Fabone), says "Winningest Conference(s): Big East | Wins: 18", means that by the way I picked my bracket (and don't laugh), the Big East conference will get the most wins with 18.

The rules of how to win this Bonus Prize is as follows:

1. The top 5 finishers not eligible (so no double-dipping)
2. Ties broken by championship final score total
3. If there is *still* a tie, money is split
4. If 2 (or more) conferences tie for the most wins, both (or all) conferences must have been picked correctly
5. If entry has 2 or more conferences tied for most wins, only one must be correct to win (e.g. entry picks Pac 10 and Big 12 with 11 wins a piece. Big 12 ends up winning the most games with 11, then contestant wins)

And, the Bonus Prize is worth $40, which is four years worth of losing brackets. Last year, the Big 12 was the winningest conference with 12 wins (picked correctly by 4 entries but won via tiebreaker by Robby D's Arbedy Three). But if no one correctly picks the winningest conference and wins, then the Bonus2 takes effect.

Bonus2 - Total Points in Final

If no one wins the Bonus1, then a second Bonus opportunity takes effect. The entry closest to the "Total points in final" tiebreaker wins the $40. In order to reward better play, the tiebreaker is the higher placement in the final pool standings.

The rules of how to win this Bonus Prize is as follows:

1. The top 5 finishers not eligible (so no double-dipping)
2. "Closest" can be above or below actual total (if actual is 144, 143 & 145 are both 1 point away)
3. Ties broken by highest placement in final pool standings
4. If there is *still* a tie, money is split

Prize Breakdown

With everyone pretty much confirmed, we are officially at 114 entries ($1,140). So, here is the official prize breakdown:

    1st Place =       $495.00
    2nd Place =    $250.00
    3rd Place =     $170.00
    4th Place =     $115.00
    5th Place =     $ 70.00
    Bonus Prize =$ 40.00

Bonus Prize Analysis

What this means is that of the 8 entries that were eliminated from the top 5 prizes, 6 of 8 are back into play!  So 112 of 114 entries still have a chance for money.

If you don't have your bracket, then go to the "For the Record" page and pick your nickname from the drop down box. Right now, of the 8 conferences represented in the Sweet 16, only 4 conferences have a chance to get the most number of wins:

        Teams  Curr  Max Poss
Conf.   Left   Wins  Wins
------- -----  ----  --------
BigEast   5     11     22
Big12     3      9     18
Big10     2      6     11
x-Pac10   1      6     10
ACC       2      5     11   
x-Atl10   1      3      7
x-ConfUSA 1      2      6
x-WCC     1      2      6
   x-Eliminated

With three #1 seeds, there were 98 entries have at least the Big East as their (or one of their) winningest conference. Fourteen have at least the ACC while 2 each had the Big 10 and Big 12 (2 entries had 2 conferences winning it). All in all, 24 entries (mostly those who had the ACC or Big 10 as the winningest conference) were eliminated from the Bonus1 prize. Note that the Big 10 and ACC can only tie the Big East (and no one picked the Big East & ACC or the Big East & Big 10).  The Big 12 only plays the Big East once in the Sweet 16, so the Big East could be stuck on 11 and the Big 12 stuck on 10 wins.  So root for teams from the conference you picked.

Below are the teams in the conferences that matter for the Bonus1.

Conf.   Teams Left (1st Rnd W-L, 2nd Rnd W-L)
-----   ----------
BigEast UCONN, LOU, PITT, SYR, VIL (6-1, 5-1)
Big12   KAN, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA (6-0, 3-3)
Big10   MICHIGAN ST, PURDUE (4-3, 2-2)
ACC     DUKE, UNC (3-4, 2-1)

It's much too much to go through all the possibilities with four rounds remaining. But, if you do have a chance, this will guide you to which team to root for based on the conference the team is in.

Here is the link to what everyone picked. If your nickname is in red, that means you're eliminated from the top 5 prizes; if your conference is in red, you're eliminated from the Bonus1. The eligibility for the Bonus2 won't be discussed unless needed.

    Tids & Bits:   2007 was the first year where we had the Bonus2 option in case no one won the Bonus1, which happened in 2005 & 2006... 119 & 133 were the most often picked for total points in final (six times)... the $495 top prize is 43.4% of the total pot, roughly the same as last year (43.6%)... we have had 914 entries in 15 years which means we will have doled out $9,140 to at least 41 people... the 914 entries have been submitted by 231 people... a record 91 entries (all-time high of 79.8%) have participated in past years... 50 entries have participated in at least 7 of our 15 years of doing the pool; thanks for your support!

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Stress for (almost) everyone!  No one is immune!  At least until Friday...
Scott

Rev A corrects eliminated entries for Bonus Prize, reflecting 112, not 114 entries still alive for money