Monday, March 18, 2002                  
Issue # 7.2.3 "Pressure's on Random Picks..."
http://www.HWCI.com/ncaa

CERRITOS, CA (smt)- Out of 32,768 possible outcomes in the next two weeks, GO WARRIORS can win money on only 11 of them (0.03%). But that's better than the other 23 entries who have torn up their bracket and cursed the team(s) that failed them. Six (RANDOM PICKS, NOBODY, THE DUKE, FREE JINX, ARPS, and THE FABON8ER) have better than a 1 in 4 chance of winning money with PICKS leading with a 62% chance. PICKS also has the best chance of winning first (22%) and leads the pool by seven points and has doubled the last place point total (90 vs 45 by HENDO). But hot on his trail are NOBODY (14% 1st, 40% $) and THE DUKE (12% 1st, 37% $). Because 9 different teams have been picked to win it all, there are 36 people still with a chance to claim first place. We have never had anyone win the pool twice and the only former champions, FREE BIX PIX and TEAM SAMURAI II, have less than a 1% of winning it all.

The variety of picks has caused some interesting possible scenarios. YUDANJA, sitting tied for 70th place, can still win it all (0.7%) while NETFLOWER, also tied for 70th, has just 2 of her Elite 8 teams intact but because she has Pitt winning it all, can still win 3rd or 4th place (0.3%). Two Sooner fans, WANTABE and BIG RED are tied for 68th but can still win 1st (0.4%). On the other side, KAIZEN, tied for 7th place, can't finish higher than 2nd. BINGO, tied for 22nd, can't finish higher than 4th. And MAD1 (previous years: MAD MANDO and REALLY MAD MANDO), though sitting tied for 32nd with three entries eyeing first, can't win a penny.

If you think your percentage is too low to win any money, just look to last year. 1st place was won by an entry that had just a 2.0% chance of winning it all. 2nd place had a 1.5% chance, 3rd 5.7%, and 4th place entry was given just a 0.8% chance. In fact, the top 13 entries with the highest percentages came away with nothing. So hope is not lost if you believe.

Prize money distribution will be officially announced on Friday morning. We have two entries we are still trying to verify. Either way, the 1st place prize will be at least $400 ($200 more and you'll have to report it to the IRS ;-)). Stay tuned...

HWCI NCAA Possibilities Report - (3/17/02)