Wednesday, March 28, 2001                   http://www.HWCI.com/ncaa
Issue # 14.5.1 "Predictor Island..."


2001 HWCI NCAA TOURNAMENT POOL
==============================

LA MIRADA, CA (smt)-- There are several strategies into picking the 63 games in the NCAA tournament. One can pick all the favorites, stick with all #1 seeds to make the Final Four (which has never happened), pick on hunches and gut feelings, pick based on seedings having never watched college basketball, or pick based on local or alma mater or favorite teams. And you can ask your friends. But who do you trust and who is the mole?

First off, pick the correct champion. Unfortunately, if ten other people pick your team to win, well, only four of you will win money. There have been two years where no one picked the correct champion (the two years a #1 seed didn't win) but the ones who have won the top prize picked at least the runner-up. Of the other four years, the only person to win any money (14 spots) and not pick the correct champion was CARSERONI (Gareth M.) in 1999 when he picked Duke to win it all (UConn beat Duke in the Final) and finished in 3rd place instead of 1st place. In fact, only 4 of 36 people picked UConn and 3 of them won money.

Secondly, the first round is key despite only two points per win. Fall too far behind and it's hard to catch up. Of the six pool champions, only MAX (Sean D.) in 1997 was not within one win of first place (23 wins vs 26 wins for the leader). And if you're playing for fun, everyone gets more than half the games right- except for this crazy year (and let's not talk about TRUE BRUIN (Loretta A.) in 1999 and BETHEON (Beth S.) in 2000).

Here are the best and worst of the predictors. Power points are calculated based on your placement in the pool and the size of the pool. For example, in a pool of 12 people, finishing 1st gets 1.0 power point, 7th (middle) 0.5 points, and 12th (last) 0.08 pts. In a pool of 36, finishing 1st gets 1.0 pt, 6th 0.86 pts, 18th (middle) 0.5 pts, and 36th (last) 0.03 pts. The closer to an average of 1.0 power point, the better you have done in the pool. "YR" indicates number of years in pool; "EN" indicates total number of entries in pool.

OVERALL-
MOST WINS  YR  #   EN #
-------------------------
Scott T.    6 247  8 327
Fern B.     6 243  
Brian S.    6 238
David F.    6 235  7 275
Alvin K.    6 235  7 272

MOST PTS   YR  #   EN #
-------------------------
Scott T.    6 700  8 935
Fern B.     6 681  
David F.    6 656  7 769
Alvin K.    6 651  7 744

MONEY WON   YRS-WON  $  
-------------------------
Scott T.     3       $190
Lisa F.      1       $180
Sam N.       1       $180
Anna         1       $150
Jason S.     2       $145


MINIMUM 4 ENTRIES
=================

WEIGHTED POWER POINTS
Depends on your place in
pool and the size of pool
(MAX 1 PWR PT PER ENTRY)
=========================
--BEST PREDICTORS--------
PWR PTS PER YR AV  EN AVE
-------------------------
Scott T.    6-.76  8-.772
Fern B.     6-.69
Jason S.    5-.66
Andy F.     4-.61

--WORST PREDICTORS-------
PWR PTS PER YR AV  EN AVE
-------------------------
Dennis K.   5-.26  6-.181
Jay S.      6-.40
Mark C.     6-.42
Man V.      6-.46
Tuan H.            4-.506

BEST WIN%  YR Pct  EN Pct
-------------------------
Scott T.    6 .653 8 .649
Fern B.     6 .643
Jason S.    5 .632

WORST WIN% YR Pct  EN Pct
-------------------------
Dennis K.   5 .584 6 .587
Tuan H.     2 .587 4 .591
Mike B.     5 .600
Mark C.     6 .608


============
LAST 3 YEARS
============
OVERALL-
MOST WINS  YR  #   EN #
-------------------------
Scott T.    3 121  5 201
Mike B.     3 113
Brian S.    3 112
4 tied      3 110

MOST PTS   YR  #   EN #
-------------------------
Scott T.    3 336  5 571
Mike B.     3 310
David F.    3 309
Sam N.      3 302

TOTAL POWER POINTS
Depends on your place in
pool and the size of pool
(MAX 1 PWR PT PER ENTRY)
=========================
--BEST PREDICTORS--------
PWR PTS     YR PTS EN PTS
-------------------------
Scott T.    3-2.62 5-4.23
Mike B.     3-2.00
Lisa F.     2-1.83
James L.    2-1.83
Gareth M.   2-1.75 3-1.83

--WORST PREDICTORS-------
(3 ENTRIES)
PWR PTS PER YR PTS EN PTS
-------------------------
Dennis K.   3-0.45
Alvin K.    3-1.00
Mark C.     3-1.08
Brian S.    3-1.08