Sunday, July 7, 2024
Issue # 6.2.2 "Best of the Best?"
[||| Mini-Updates | Dailies: Jul 5-6 ]

First Semifinal -  Munich Football Arena			Second Semifinal - BVB Stadion Dortmund
ESP - Kingdom of Spain La Roja (The Red One) Real Federación Española de Fútbol (RFEF)	FRA - French Rep Les Blues (The Blues) Fédération Française de Football (FFF)		NED - Netherlands Oranje Koninklijke Nederlandse Voetbalbond (KNVB)	ENG - England Three Lions The Football Assoc (The FA)
#8 | 1B | Winner | 5-0-0 6th Semifinal ('64, '84, '08, '12, '21) B1: Beat Croatia 3-0 B4: Beat Italy 1-0 B5: Beat Albania 1-0 R16: Beat 3F-Georgia 4-1 QF: Beat 1A-Germany 2-1 (aet)	#2 | 2D | Runner-Up | 2-0-3 5th Semifinal ('84, '96, '00, '16) D2: Beat Austria 1-0 D4: Tied Netherlands 0-0 D6: Tied Poland 1-1 R16: Beat 2E-Belgium 1-0 QF: Beat 1F-Portugal 0-0 ( PSO 5-3)		#7 | 3D | 3rd Place | 3-1-1 6th Semifinal ('76, '88, '92, '00, '04) D1: Beat Poland 2-1 D4: Tied France 0-0 D5: Lost to Austria 3-2 R16: Beat 1E-Romania 3-0 QF: Beat Türkiye 2-1	#5 | 1C | Winner | 2-0-3 4th Semifinal ('68, '96, '21) C2: Beat Serbia 1-0 C4: Tied Denmark 1-1 C5: Tied Slovenia 0-0 R16: Beat Slovakia 2-1 (aet) QF: Beat 2A-Switzerland 1-1 (PSO 5-3)

ROSEMEAD, CA (smt) - We have the semifinals set with 1B-Spain facing 2D-France and 1C-England facing 3D-Netherlands.  The four have combined for six European championships and four World Cups with each team winning at least one of them.  While ESP has outscored opponents 11-2 (1 own goal), FRA has not scored in open play (its three goals have been 2 own goals and 1 PK), ENG has scored just four times (with the last two not getting a shot on goal for almost 95 minutes and 80 minutes, respectively), and NED only winning one game comfortably (3-0 in Round of 16) while needing to rally twice after falling behind 1-0. 

FRA and 1F-Portugal played to another nil-nil draw with FRA winning on PKs 5-3.  ENG fell behind in the 75' but scored on their first shot on goal in the 80' and actually won a PSO, beating 2A-Switzerland 5-3.  NED scored twice in six minutes to rally late to beat 2F-Türkiye 2-1 while ESP nearly went to PSO but scored in the 119' to defeat host 1A-Germany, 2-1.  GER outplayed ESP after ESP went up 1-0 in the 51' and managed to tie it in the 89' but one great header right before the end of extra time sealed their fate. 

GER (picked by 8 to win it all) and POR (picked by 4) were big losses but FRA (18), ENG (13), ESP (7), and NED (2) are still alive.  All four were picked by at least 17 to make the semifinals with 13 getting all 4 teams correct and Soccer Guru (57th, 76) missing all 4. 

Among those getting all four correct, Merman takes the lead with 102 points with Sporty Xtina second (101).  BigRedMessi 1 and BigRedMessi 3 rose to a tie with Rainman in third (100) and Big Blue (99) and Teton&Tahoe (7th, 98) also rose.  Nacho Libre is now last with 75 pts.

With the Final Four possibilities, 15 entries still have a chance to finish in the top 4 and six can still win the pool.  Merman has the best chance at money (62.5%) while Merman, BigRedMessi 1, and Sporty Xtina each have a 25% chance to win the pool.  Eric F still has all 3 entries alive and covers 7 of the 8 possible outcomes with two of those nabbing two spots (NED>ESP, NED>FRA).  A ESP>ENG will have a 3-way tie for 4th meaning possibly two entries will be left out.  The semifinal games count for the total goals tiebreaker (all goals in regulation or extra time but not in PSO) so either root for scoreless draws or lots of goals. 

We are now on Twitter (@HWCI_Pools) and Discord for discussion or questions.  Please follow!  I will post using #hwcincaa mini-updates during the day so you can follow without being on Twitter (and if you are, please use #hwcincaa).  Please join our Facebook HWCI Soccer Pool Group or post comments on our blog. 

   Ins & Outs - [48 Matches/17 Ties] - Goals: 108 (2.25/match) [Own: 10 (1-GER>SCO 87', 8-AUT>FRA 38' {gw}, 12-CZE>POR 69', 15-ALB>CRO 76', 16-ITA>ESP 55' {gw}, 23-TUR>POR{2} 28', 31-NED>AUT 6' | 39-ESP>GEO 18', 42-BEL>FRA{2} 85' {gw}, 48-TUR{2}>NED 76' {gw}), Subs: 20 (1-GER 68', 1-GER{2} 90'+3, 2-SUI 90'+3, 7-NED 83', 11-TUR 90'+7, 12-POR 90'+2 {gw}, 15-ALB 76' {og}, 15-ALB{2} 90'+5 {gd}, 18-SVN 90'+5 {gd}, 21-UKR 80' {gw}, 23-GER{3} 90'+2 {gd}, 24-HUN 90'+10 {gw}, 28-ITA 90'+8 {gw}, 36-TUR 90'+4 {gw} | 39-ESP 83', 43-NED 80', 43-NED 90'+3, 44-AUT 66', 45-GER 89', 45-ESP 119' {gw}), 90'+/120'+: 11 (1-GER +3, 2-SUI +3, 11-TUR +7, 12-POR +2 {gw}, 15-ALB +5 {gd}, 18-SVN +5 {gd}, 23-GER{2} +2 {gd}, 24-HUN +10 {gw}, 28-ITA +8 {gw}, 36-TUR +4 {gw} | 40-ENG +5 {gd}, 43-NED +3), Extra Time: 2 (40-ENG 91' {gw}, 45-ESP 119' {gw})]... Scoring First: 24-7-11 [6 Nil-Nil ties (20-NEDvFRA, 29-ENGvSVN, 30-DENvSRB, 34-UKRvBEL | 42-PORvSVN{2}, 45-POR{2}vFRA{2}); (4-ITA>ALB, 7-NED>POL, 12-POR>CZE, 21-UKR>SVK | 40-ENG>SVK{2}, 39-ESP>GEO, 48-NED{2}>TUR)]... Leading at Half: 17-3-4 [24 ties (15 scoreless); (21-UKR>SVK | 40-ENG>SVK{2}, 48-NED>TUR)]... Shutout: 28 [3-CRO, 5-SRB, 10-UKR, 9-BEL, 8-AUT, 14-HUN, 16-ITA, 20-NED, 20-FRA, 23-TUR, 22-ROU, 24-SCO, 27-ALB, 29-ENG, 29-SVN, 30-DEN, 30-SRB{2}, 34-UKR{2}, 34-BEL{2}, 35-POR | 38-ITA{2}, 37-DEN{2}, 42-BEL{2}, 41-POR{2}, 41-SVN{2}, 43-ROU{2}, 45-POR{3}, 45-FRA{2}]... PK: 8/11 [1-GER 45'+1, 3-cro (s) 80', 19-AUT 78', 24-GEO 45'+4, 28-cro{0/2} (s) 54', 32-FRA 56', 32-POL 79' {retake}, 33-ROU 37', 35-GEO{2/2} 57' | 37-GER 53', 41-por 105']... Extra Time: 5 [40-ENGvSVK 2:1(1:1), 41-PORvSVN 0:0(0:0), 45-ESPvGER 2:1(1:1), 46-POR{2}vFRA 0:0(0:0), 47-ENGvSUI 1:1(1:1)]... PSO: 3 (19/24) [41-SVNvPOR 3.0 (0:3 {sss:GGG}), 46-FRAvPOR 4.5 (5:3 {GGGGG:GGlG}), 48-ENGvSUI 4. (5:3 {GGGGG:GsGG})]... Red Card (GF/GA): 6 [1-SCO 44' {R} (1{og}/3), 36-CZE 20' {2Y} (1/2), 36-CZE{2} 90'+8(Post) {R} (-/-), 41-SVN 105'+1(Coach) [R] (n/a), 45-ESP 120'+4 [2Y] (0/0), 48-TUR 90'+6(Bench) {R} (n/a)]... Multiple Goals:: 2 [- | Malen 2 (43-NED), Demiral 2 (44-TUR)]... Goal Line Tech: 1 [34-UKR (xG) 83']... VAR (-Reversal(Taken Away), +Reversal(Added), =Confirmed, xNo Call):: 42 [1-SCO FoulBox-{PK-} 25', 1-SCO xFoul+{RC+PK+GER} 42', 1-GER xOff+{g-} 76', 1-SCO xOff={og=} 87', 2-SUI Off-{g+} 12', 3-CRO xEncroach+{g-} 82', 4-ITA xOff={g=} 16', 7-NED YC~(14<23) 15',  6-DEN xFoulxPK= 53', 10-ROU xOff={g=} 57', 9-SVK xOff={g=} 7', 9-BEL xOff+{g-} 56', 9-BEL xHB+{g-} 86', 11-TUR xOff+{g-} 27', 12-POR xOff+{g-} 87', 14-GER xOff={g=} 22', 14-HUN xOff+{g-} 45'+2, 13-SUI xOff+{g-} 33', 13-SUI xOff+{g-} 82', 20-NED Off={ng=} 69', 24-CZE xHB+{g-} 23', 24-CZE xHB+{pk+GEO} 45'+1, 24-GEO xFoulxPK= 60', 23-GER xFoul+{g-} 17', 23-SUI xFoulxPK= 70', 24-SCO xFoulxPK= 68', 28-ITA xHB+{pk+CRO} 52', 31-NED HB-{g+} 75', 31-AUT xOff+{g-} 83', 32-FRA xFoul+{pk+POL} 74', 32-FRA xGKOffLine+{retakePK+POL} 77', 29-ENG xOff+{g-} 20', 33-SVK xFoulBox+{pk+ROU} 34', 35-POR xF+{pk+GEO} 53', 36-CZE xOffxFoul={g=} 66' | 37-DEN xOff+{g-} 48', 37-DEN xHB+{pk+GER} 51', 37-GER xOff+{g-} 90'+1, 40-ENG xOff+{g-} 50', 43-NED xOff+{g-} 63']... 63%+ Poss: 12 [1-GERvSCO (68) W, 4-ITAvALB (65) W, 7-NEDvPOL (65) W, 10-UKRvROU (66) L, 12-PORvCZE (69) W, 14-GER{2}vHUN (63) W, 29-ENGvSVN (72) D, 35-POR{2}vGEO (68) L |40-ENG{2}vSVK (63) W, 39-ESPvGEO (72) W, 41-POR{3}vSVN{2} (68) D/W, 46-POR{4}vFRA (63) D/L]... Zero SOG (Shots): 3 [1-SCO (0), 26-SCO{2} (4) | 39-GEO (4)]... 20+ Shots (S/SOG/G):: 13 [7-NED (20/4/2) W, 11-TUR (22/8/3) W, 15-CRO (20/5/1 {og}) D, 16-ESP (20/8/0 {og}) W, 24-CZE (26/11/1) D, 35-POR (23/5/0) L | 39-ESP{2} (36/13/4) W, 42-FRA (20/2/0{og}) W, 41-POR (20/5/0) D/W, 43-NED (24/6/3) W, 44-AUT (21/5/1) L, 45-GER (23/5/1) L, 46-FRA{2} (20/5/0) D/W]... Breaks (>30 min): 1 [- | 37-GERvDEN (Lightning 30m)]... Match Order of Play: RR: 1 | 2-3-4 | 7-6-5 | 10-9-8 | 11-12¹ | 15-14-13 | 18-17-16 | 21-19-20 | 24-23-22² | 25-26^A | 27-28^B | 31-32^D-29-30^C | 33-34^E-35-36^F | R16: 38-37 | 40-39 | 42-41 | 43-44 | QF: 45-46 | 47-48 | SF: 49 | 50 | FIN: 51... 

   Tids & Bits - POR has had 13 CK (1st game), 11 CKs 3rd game, 11 CKs (R16), and 11 CKs (QF)... there were no VAR delays in the 4 matches (42 total VAR delays (though ESPN only is tracking 24 major incidents for now)... entries averaged 2.43 SF (out of 4)... entries are averaging 88.7 points so far... congrats to Canada for making the semis with a coach US Soccer rejected... 47 or more entries had GER, ESP, ENG, POR, FRA, and NED making the QF... TUR has been in some wild games, winning 3-1 over GEO, losing 3-0 to POR, playing a 18+ yellow card game winning 2-1 over CZE, holding off AUT 2-1, and then blowing a 1-0 lead to lose to NED 2-1... there have been six red cards issued but one was post-game, one was to a bench player, one was in the dying seconds, and one to a coach... POR did not score in the last 3 matches...

On Friday, In the two big matchups between favorites, lots of entries had a big stake on the outcomes.  31 had ESP making the semifinals and 49 had FRA.  24 went 2-0 while two went 0-2 (Soccer Guru and Il Vecchio).  A new leader has emerged as Merman is now in first with 90 points.  Danglish is now in last with 67 pts. However, it's Kds911-3 and Luis Enrique's Armada with the best chance to win the pool (28.1% each) and win money (43.8%) and both have ESP as their champion (both tied for 2nd with 89 pts).  They will be forever tied as both also have 7 goals as their tiebreaker. Goleador (2nd-T) also has a 43.8% chance to win money.  The two matches cut our number of entries to win money from 40 to 24 and cut the number of entries who could win the pool in half (20 to 10). BigRedMessi 3 (2nd), Blue Frogs (3rd), El Matador (3rd), and Rainman (2nd) are tied for 7th but can't win the pool while Azurri di Hermosa is tied for 39th but can still win the pool.  Germany Minus One (GER champ) and Salah (POR champ) are tied for 7th but are eliminated while BigRedMessi 2 (NED champ) is tied for 48th but can still finish 2nd.   ... on Saturday, 44 had ENG making the semis and 12 NED.  Thirteen (13) went 2-0 while ten went 0-2.  Merman stays in the lead with 102 points but now Sporty Xtina is second (101).  Nacho Libre takes over last place with 75 pts although Soccer Guru (57th) will be stuck on 76 pts.  Overall, eight entries got all 4 semifinalists correct while Soccer Guru got none. 15 still have a chance to win money and six can still win the pool.  Merman has the best chance at money (62.5%) while Merman, BigRedMessi 1 (3rd-Tied, 100), and Sporty Xtina each have a 25% chance to win the pool. BigRedMessi 3 (same remaining picks as Merman) is tied for 3rd but can't win the pool while JBueno (ESP>ENG in final) is tied for 12th (94) but can win the pool.  El Buenísimo is 8th (97) but is eliminated while Azzurri di Hermosa (FRA>ENG in final) is 41st (87) but can still win 3rd place.  ...

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USSoccer to make an announcement soon, it can't be to say no change, right?...
Scott