Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Issue # 5.2.1 "Great Entrées with Some Swiss and Turkey"
[||| Mini-Updates | Dailies: Jun 29-30 Jul 1-2 ]

FALLBROOK, CA (smt)- The quarterfinals will feature some great soccer nations with 3-time Euro (3xEuro) and one-time World Cup (1xWC) champion 1B-Spain, 3xEuro and 4xWC champion 1A-Germany, 1xEuro champion 1F-Portugal, 2xEuro and 2xWC champion 2D-France, 1xEuro champion 3D-Netherlands, and 1xWC champion 1C-England.  Tossed in with these 6 in the quarterfinals are 2A-Switzerland and 2F-Türkiye.

Group D missed getting three teams in the quarters as 1D-Austria's rally came up short to TUR, 2-1, in a rain-filled back-and-forth match.  The other group winner who failed to advance was 1E-Romania who got trounced by NED 3-0.  GER and SUI picked up 2-0 wins while FRA got an own goal to beat 2E-Belgium 1-0, ending that golden generation.  FRA is in the QF having only getting 3 goals, 2 by own goal and 1 by PK.  Cinderella #74 3F-Georgia had an early 1-0 lead thanks to an own goal but finished with zero shots on goal in a 4-1 loss to ESP.

A last second bicycle kick goal (ENG's first shot on goal) in stoppage time drew ENG level to #48 3E-Slovakia and an early Extra Time goal gave ENG the 2-1 win.  POR could not find an answer to #57 3C-Slovenia's defense including SVN's GK saving Ronaldo's PK in Extra Time but in the penalty shootout, POR's GK made 3 consecutive saves as POR won 3-0 in just three rounds. 

While FRAvBEL was the first heavyweight matchup, the quarterfinals will feature ESPvGER and PORvFRA in the upper bracket while the bottom bracket would seem to favor #7 NED (v #42 TUR) and #5 ENG (v #19 SUI).  Of the top 7 teams (chosen by at lest 2 entries) picked to win it all, only BEL (picked by 4) has been eliminated. 

With a good number having both FRA and BEL in the quarters (thus, you were guaranteed a win here), defending champ 2B-Italy falling to SUI, and surprise matchup of AUTvTUR, Disabling Below Jobs and Rainman still managed to get 7 of 8 QF teams correct with the former our new leader with 83 points and the latter rising to a tie for 2nd with Germany Minus One (82).  Former leader Toast fell to 4th with 80 pts. 

Five went 4-4 including Alyonushka and Rutin4Putin who both fell from a tie for 4th after the group stage to a tie for 40th (72).  Cool Guy is in last with 60 pts but could still get 98 (Il Vecchio (43rd-Tied, 71) has the worst max points with 85).

We finally have possibilities and with 7 matches left, Germany Minus One has the best chance to win the pool (13.3%) and money (top 4 finish) (26.6%).   However, 19 others could win the pool and four of those have between 10.9 and 12.5% chance to do so.  39 others could win money with four having between 20.3 to 22.7% chance of finishing in the top 4.

We are now on Twitter (/span>/span>@HWCI_Pools) and Discord for discussion or questions.  Please follow!  I will post using #hwcincaa mini-updates during the day so you can follow without being on Twitter (and if you are, please use #hwcincaa).  Please join our Facebook HWCI Soccer Pool Group or post comments on our blog. 

   Ins & Outs - [44 Matches/15 Ties] - Goals: 100 (2.27/match) [Own: 9 (1-GER>SCO 87', 8-AUT>FRA 38' {gw}, 12-CZE>POR 69', 15-ALB>CRO 76', 16-ITA>ESP 55' {gw}, 23-TUR>POR{2} 28', 31-NED>AUT 6' | 39-ESP>GEO 18', 42-BEL>FRA{2} 85' {gw}), Subs: 18 (1-GER 68', 1-GER{2} 90'+3, 2-SUI 90'+3, 7-NED 83', 11-TUR 90'+7, 12-POR 90'+2 {gw}, 15-ALB 76' {og}, 15-ALB{2} 90'+5 {gd}, 18-SVN 90'+5 {gd}, 21-UKR 80' {gw}, 23-GER{3} 90'+2 {gd}, 24-HUN 90'+10 {gw}, 28-ITA 90'+8 {gw}, 36-TUR 90'+4 {gw} | 39-ESP 83', 43-NED 80', 43-NED 90'+3, 44-AUT 66'), 90'+/120'+: 11 (1-GER +3, 2-SUI +3, 11-TUR +7, 12-POR +2 {gw}, 15-ALB +5 {gd}, 18-SVN +5 {gd}, 23-GER{2} +2 {gd}, 24-HUN +10 {gw}, 28-ITA +8 {gw}, 36-TUR +4 {gw} | 40-ENG +5 {gd}, 43-NED +3), Extra Time: 1 (40-ENG 91' {gw})]... Scoring First: 23-6-10 [5 Nil-Nil ties (20-NEDvFRA, 29-ENGvSVN, 30-DENvSRB, 34-UKRvBEL | 42-PORvSVN{2}); (4-ALB, 7-POL, 12-CZE, 21-SVK | 40-SVK, 39-GEO)]... Leading at Half: 17-2-4 [21 ties (13 scoreless); (21-SVK | 40-SVK{2})]... Shutout: 26 [3-CRO, 5-SRB, 10-UKR, 9-BEL, 8-AUT, 14-HUN, 16-ITA, 20-NED, 20-FRA, 23-TUR, 22-ROU, 24-SCO, 27-ALB, 29-ENG, 29-SVN, 30-DEN, 30-SRB{2}, 34-UKR{2}, 34-BEL{2}, 35-POR | 38-ITA{2}, 37-DEN{2}, 42-BEL{2}, 41-POR{2}, 41-SVN{2}, 43-ROU{2}]... PK: 8/11 [1-GER 45'+1, 3-cro (s) 80', 19-AUT 78', 24-GEO 45'+4, 28-cro{0/2} (s) 54', 32-FRA 56', 32-POL 79' {retake}, 33-ROU 37', 35-GEO{2/2} 57' | 37-GER 53', 41-por 105']... Extra Time: 2 [40-ENGvSVK 2:1(1:1), 41-PORvSVN 0:0(0:0)]... PSO: 1 (3/6) [41-SVNvPOR 3.0 (0:3 {sss:GGG})]... Red Card (GF/GA): 4 [1-SCO 44' {R} (1{og}/3), 36-CZE 20' {2Y} (1/2), 36-CZE{2} 90'+8(Post) {R} (-/-), 41-SVN 105'+1(Coach) [R] (n/a)]... Multiple Goals:: 2 [- | Malen 2 (43-NED), Demiral 2 (44-TUR)]... Goal Line Tech: 1 [34-UKR (xG) 83']... VAR (-Reversal(Taken Away), +Reversal(Added), =Confirmed, xNo Call):: 42 [1-SCO FoulBox-{PK-} 25', 1-SCO xFoul+{RC+PK+GER} 42', 1-GER xOff+{g-} 76', 1-SCO xOff={og=} 87', 2-SUI Off-{g+} 12', 3-CRO xEncroach+{g-} 82', 4-ITA xOff={g=} 16', 7-NED YC~(14<23) 15',  6-DEN xFoulxPK= 53', 10-ROU xOff={g=} 57', 9-SVK xOff={g=} 7', 9-BEL xOff+{g-} 56', 9-BEL xHB+{g-} 86', 11-TUR xOff+{g-} 27', 12-POR xOff+{g-} 87', 14-GER xOff={g=} 22', 14-HUN xOff+{g-} 45'+2, 13-SUI xOff+{g-} 33', 13-SUI xOff+{g-} 82', 20-NED Off={ng=} 69', 24-CZE xHB+{g-} 23', 24-CZE xHB+{pk+GEO} 45'+1, 24-GEO xFoulxPK= 60', 23-GER xFoul+{g-} 17', 23-SUI xFoulxPK= 70', 24-SCO xFoulxPK= 68', 28-ITA xHB+{pk+CRO} 52', 31-NED HB-{g+} 75', 31-AUT xOff+{g-} 83', 32-FRA xFoul+{pk+POL} 74', 32-FRA xGKOffLine+{retakePK+POL} 77', 29-ENG xOff+{g-} 20', 33-SVK xFoulBox+{pk+ROU} 34', 35-POR xF+{pk+GEO} 53', 36-CZE xOffxFoul={g=} 66' | 37-DEN xOff+{g-} 48', 37-DEN xHB+{pk+GER} 51', 37-GER xOff+{g-} 90'+1, 40-ENG xOff+{g-} 50', 43-NED xOff+{g-} 63']... 63%+ oss: 11 [1-GERvSCO (68) W, 4-ITAvALB (65) W, 7-NEDvPOL (65) W, 10-UKRvROU (66) L, 12-PORvCZE (69) W, 14-GER{2}vHUN (63) W, 29-ENGvSVN (72) D, 35-POR{2}vGEO (68) L |40-ENG{2}vSVK (63) W, 39-ESPvGEO (72) W, 41-POR{3}vSVN{2} (68) D/W]... Zero SOG (Shots): 3 [1-SCO (0), 26-SCO{2} (4) | 39-GEO (4)]... 20+ Shots (S/SOG/G):: 11 [7-NED (20/4/2) W, 11-TUR (22/8/3) W, 15-CRO (20/5/1 {og}) D, 16-ESP (20/8/0 {og}) W, 24-CZE (26/11/1) D, 35-POR (23/5/0) L | 39-ESP{2} (36/13/4) W, 42-FRA (20/2/0{og}) W, 41-POR (20/5/0) D/W, 43-NED (24/6/3) W, 44-AUT (21/5/1) L]... Breaks (>30 min): 1 [- | 37-GERvDEN (Lightning 30m)]... Match Order of Play: RR: 1 | 2-3-4 | 7-6-5 | 10-9-8 | 11-12¹ | 15-14-13 | 18-17-16 | 21-19-20 | 24-23-22² | 25-26^A | 27-28^B | 31-32^D-29-30^C | 33-34^E-35-36^F | R16: 38-37 | 40-39 | 42-41 | 43-44 | QF: 45-46 | 47-48 | SF: 49 | 50 | FIN: 51... 

   Tids & Bits - - ENG's two goals came 3:20 apart in playing time... POR has had 13 CK (1st game), 11 CKs 3rd game, and 11 CKs (R16)... there were only 5 VAR delays in the 8 matches (42 total VAR delays (though ESPN only is tracking 24 major incidents for now)... entries averaged 5.56 QF (out of 8)... entries are averaging 74.1 points so far... so the cream of the crop of CONCACAF is now Canada and Panama?... 47 or more entries had GER, ESP, ENG, POR, FRA, and NED making the QF... TUR had the 2nd earliest goal (57 seconds) in Euro history (earliest was 23 seconds by B4-Albania this year)...

On Saturday, 48 had GER making the Quarters and 5 had SUI.  Three (Rainman, BluesIsTheColour I, and Disabling Below Jobs) got both SUI and GER into the QFs.  Eight went 0-2.  Toast is still in first with 64 pts with Disabling Below Jobs now second (63) with El Buenísimo and Rainman moved into a tie for 4th (62) with Germany Minus One.  Cool Guy and Lukakus Lost Brother are tied for last with 44 pts. ... on Sunday, 57 had ESP making the Quarters and 56 ENG.  Thus, 55 went 2-0 while the other three went 1-1.  No change to the top 7 with Toast leading with 72 pts.  No change to the bottom 7 either with Cool Guy and Lukakus Lost Brother tied with 52 pts.  Overall, three have gotten all 4 QFs correct while two have gotten just 1 correct.... on Monday, 50 picked POR to make the quarterfinals while 57 picked FRA.  49 went 2-0 while the other 9 went 1-1.  Disabling Below Jobs moves into 1st with 79 points while Germany Minus One and Rainman move up one spot to a tie for 2nd (78).  Previous leader Toast falls to 4th (76).  Overall, Disabling Below Jobs, Rainman, and BluesIsTheColour I (8th-Tied, 74) have gotten all 6 quarterfinal teams while three have gotten just 3 of 6.  Danglish moves into last with 57 pts. Of the 58 entries, just 15 are eliminated leaving 43 entries with a chance to win money.  22 have a chance to win the pool.  Germany Minus One has the best chance to win the pool (15.2%) and win money (26.6%) with the GER champion pick.  Four others have 12.5-13.5% chance to win the pool and five entries have a 21.3-24.4% chance to win money ... on Tuesday, 47 had NED making the quarters and 2 had TUR (Toast and I Say Old Chap). 49 went 1-1 and the other 9 went 0-2. The top 7 didn't change with Disabling Below Jobs in first with 83 pts. Cool Guy takes back last place with 60 pts. 40 can still win money and 20 can still win the pool.  21goals is tied for 5th but can't win the pool (has the same remaining picks as Germany Minus One) while Azzurri di Hermosa (ENG over FRA, which is possible since FRA fell to second in Group D) is tied for 50th but can still win the pool. Kds911-2, Soccer Guru, and Soccerbix are tied for 21st and are eliminated while Azzurri di HB Tre (3rd) and Azzurri di Hermosa (1st) are tied for 50th and can still win money....

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If USSoccer doesn't fire Berhalter or Berhalther doesn't resign after that disgraceful exit of Copa, then why should we care to spend $200 on a ticket? - as Obi-Wan said to Qui-gon:  "They all sense it, why can't you"?...
Scott