Readers be warned, the views I’m about to inflict upon you are skewed, formulated by a huge soccer fan who cancelled his cable plan in 2020, almost exclusively following top European players in the English Premier League thru Barclay’s Fantasy Football.  Furthermore, the rest of the insight expressed herein originate from dated impressions made during World Cup 2018!

When I compared the odds (based on betMGM) for teams to win the Euro 2020 (oddly not renamed Euro 2021) with FIFA rankings and Power Rankings (The Athletes Hub), I scratched my head.  Recent team playing form aside, there are definitely some underrated and overrated teams.  These disparities made me rethink which of the top teams in the Euro 2020 are Contenders, just Pretenders, or Dark Horses that may surprise us!  I’ve listed these teams in descending order of my own personal rankings of their chances to win the tournament.

1) BELGIUM

Power Ranking:  3^rd

FIFA Europe Ranking:  1^st 

Odds to Win: +550

Verdict:  CONTENDER! 

Some bookmakers had Belgium level with France, or at least better than England…and they may have slipped after Kevin De Bruyne broke his face in the UEFA Championship game.  The Phantom of the EurOpera should be ready to make an appearance with a protective face mask.  He won’t let down his teammates!

Hopefully Manager Roberto Martinez puts Eden Hazard up front, an adjustment they made after halftime after falling behind 2-0 to Japan in the quarterfinals…it worked with aplomb.  I’m not sold on Lukaku in the forward position… he blew too many chances in that games and others in the World Cup.  Let KDB be playmaker to E. Hazard, the scoring machine!

The Red Devils are the oldest and most internationally capped side in the tournament.  The best finish Belgium has ever accomplished is 2^nd place against W. Germany in 1980.  With the Golden Generation peaking, this is Belgium’s best and perhaps last chance for a very long time to become champions of Europe.  This little powerhouse is my favorite to hoist the trophy on Sunday, July 11^th!

2) FRANCE

Power Ranking:  1^st

FIFA Europe Ranking:  2^nd 

Odds to Win:  +450

Verdict:  CONTENDER!

France basically has the same squad from World Cup 2018.  They need no introduction.  It’s rare for a Europe-based World Cup winner to subsequently go on to win the subsequent Euro (France in 2000 was one of the two) … yet it feels like this tournament is theirs to lose.  Perhaps it comes down to which version of the versatile Paul Pogba will show up at the Euro?  The one who dazzled at World Cup 2018, or the one who’s had a frustrating couple seasons at Manchester United?

3) PORTUGAL

Power Ranking:  5^th

FIFA Europe Ranking:  4^th 

Odds to Win: +800

Verdict:  CONTENDER!

Move over Cristiano Ronaldo, for here come two dual-threat, goal-scoring playmakers the world should follow closely:  Bruno Fernandes and Diogo Jota.  These guys made immediate impacts at Man. U (notching 18 goals, third-highest in the EPL during his first full season in the league) and Liverpool (notching many goals and assists despite an injury-disrupted campaign, just one season after playing well for Wolverhampton, showing his adaptability).  And then there’s Ruben Dias…he was Man City’s top defender (out of nowhere, signed from Benfica), and even selected by Football Writers' Association as Footballer of the Year in his first season.  He’s one of the reasons Man City won the EPL this season.  Honorable mentions to other emerging and/or improving players include Wolverhampton Midfielder Ruben Neves and Man City Midfielder Bernardo Silva.  While this rising crop of talent was young and on the bench during the last World Cup, their inclusion in the starting 11 gives Portugal swagger in defense of their 2016 Euro title. 

Portugal is no longer about one hot shot with a few decent supporting actors and stubborn defense.  They are a legit, emerging contender, and must be considered underrated.  Their biggest hurdle is pulling out of Group F, the Group of Death.  They’ll have to hold their own against France, Germany, and Hungary.  If they can get the top two spots, they have a great shot at reaching the finals. 

4) ENGLAND

Power Ranking:  4^th

FIFA Europe Ranking:  3^rd

Odds to Win: +500

Verdict:  PRETENDER!

Like most of the top European teams, there hasn’t been a lot of turnover for The Three Lions.  They’ve got a world-class striker up front in Harry Kane, but is veteran Jordan Henderson going to be the key playmaker to set up loads of goals?  The answer is NO.  Are the up-and-coming Phil Foden or Declan Rice experienced enough to command the field?  Not fully, but they will make things exciting.  Can Kieran Trippier repeat his surprising World Cup performance?  Newcomers Dominic Calvert-Lewin (F) and Jack Grealish (M) will need to prove their worth as recent add-ons to the squad.

While I give credit to England for playing well in the qualifiers, they’re good against the bad and average teams, but struggle against the top tier of competition.  They had arguably the easiest schedule at World Cup 2018, so getting to the semis was a bit lucky.  England will need a strong defense to overcome better opponents.  Without a key ball handling playmaker (they don’t have a maestro like Luka Modric or Kevin De Bruyne!), England will ultimately get frustrated by teams like Belgium, France, or Portugal somewhere down the line.  They simply can’t win 3 or 4 elimination matches in a row.  They’re probably the 4^th or 5^th best team in the tournament.  Being overrated, I have to call them Pretenders!!  And so far…England has NEVER won the UEFA European Championships.  Will they prove me and the footballing world wrong! 

5) SPAIN

Power Ranking:  6^TH

FIFA Europe Ranking:  5^th

Odds to Win: +800

Verdict:  PRETENDER!

La Furia Rioja remains loaded with great talent in goal, defense, and midfield.  However, the squad has a near unrecognizable set of forwards, save journeyman Alvaro Morata, who isn’t exactly going to light the tournament afire.  Morata has had underwhelming if not disappointing runs at various top clubs, including Chelsea, Atlético Madrid, and most recently at Juventus, playing for three teams in just four seasons.  Spain would have been best suited with the scrappy Diego Costa, but dropping out for personal reasons, Morata sadly is the best choice available at striker.

España has the buen suerte of landing in Group E, which consists of Poland, Slovakia, and Sweden.  While not pushovers, this group gives Spain a great chance to take first.  Another bright spot for Spain, and the reason I barely ranked them ahead of Italy?  They’re the youngest team in the tournament.  This bodes well for their ability to succeed at World Cup 2022 and beyond.

Spain is built to dominate ball control and set their own tempo, positioning them for a fairly easy path to the quarterfinals.  Once they reach the elimination rounds, they’ll struggle to string three victories in a row.  They’ve got a 50-50 chance of reaching the semis. 

6) ITALY

Power Ranking:  2^nd

FIFA Europe Ranking:  6^th

Odds to Win: +1000

Verdict:  PRETENDER!

Similar to Spain, Italy lacks talent in the attacking department.  This group is riding some momentum in terms of recent form, but if they fall behind, they aren’t as dangerous as other teams.  Nothing Ciro Immobile can do will prove me wrong, ‘cause he ain’t a “doer”.

This edition of Il Azzurri is similar to most; tight defense with minimal scoring.  Their MO has been proved time and again over the past 25 years; when considering which games I can afford to skip, Italy will dominate those decisions!  The last exciting squads fielded by Italy were from the 1980’s thru the 1994 World Cup, when Roberto Baggio famously sailed one high over the crossbar in the PK’s vs. Brazil in the final game.  

Italy’s listing ahead of Belgium is a true headscratcher, and simply another reason they’re a Pretender in my book.  Their odds to win are perhaps a reflection of the danger posed by teams in Group A:  Switzerland, Turkey, and Wales, two of which are capable of scoring against anyone, the third of which always poses a tough defense that will no-doubt game plan to secure a draw against Italy in Matchday 2 of 3 in the first round.

7) GERMANY

Power Ranking:  10^TH

FIFA Europe Ranking:  8^th

Odds to Win: +700

Verdict:  PRETENDER!

Germany is lacking depth and world-class talent at midfield and defense.  Their starting XI doesn’t compare to squads of yesteryear.  While many of Die Mannschaft’s past championship teams were greater than the sum of their parts, this edition looks much like the recent World Cup squad (which did not advance out of group play after losing to Mexico & S. Korea).  The oddsmakers give them more credit than they deserve.  Perhaps because, unlike Italy and Spain, they still have talent in their pool of strikers (stalwart Thomas Müller with 101 caps and 38 goals!).  Expect higher-scoring (and certainly more exciting) games when Germany is on the pitch!

Will Deutschland survive Group F- the Group of Death, which includes France, Portugal, and Hungary (not a complete push over)?  If they get to the Round of 16 as a wild card or surprise 2^nd place, they’re not good enough to dominate their way thru four more matches.  They’re most likely to have a tough matchup in the Round of 16.  This tournament is manager Joachim Low’s last hurrah – Germany will need to find his replacement after Euro 2020 has concluded, and I’m predicting they’ll call it “a rebuilding effort”. 

8) CROATIA

Power Ranking:  12^th

FIFA Europe Ranking:  10^th 

Odds to Win: +4000

Verdict:  DARK HOSE!

Croatia is truly a toss-up. 

One the one-hand, their line-up is nearly the same as the group that reached the World Cup Final vs. France.  On the other hand, all three of their elimination games went to extra time, two of which were won on penalties.

Croatia is in Group D, with England being their only major competition, so I like their chances of advancing to the knock-out stage.  But then again, they’ve lost 6 of their last 11 matches.  They’re not in good form.

And maybe Croatia only plays well when it matters…like in a tournament.  Their stout defense, ball handling, and counter-attack capabilities will keep them in any game.  A team that is truly greater than the sum of its parts, Croatia will make at least a quarterfinals appearance.  If they still have the heart and determination from 2018, they’ve got a 50-50 chance of reaching the semis.

9) HOLLAND

Power Ranking:  7^th

FIFA Europe Ranking:  11^th

Odds to Win: +1200

Verdict:  DARK HORSE!

The Flying Dutchman will no doubt compete in this tournament.  It’s time for rising talent Frenkie de Jong to repeat his strong club performances for his national squad.  He’ll need to develop chemistry w/ Memphis Depay to threaten their opponents in the attacking third.

Holland is arguably in THE easiest foursome, Group C.  They should dispatch of Austria, North Macedonia, and Ukraine to take first place in the group, paving the way to a winnable Round of 16 match.  They have a decent chance of reaching the semifinals, where they’ll need some good fortune to go any further.

10) DENMARK

Power Ranking:  8^th

FIFA Europe Ranking:   7^th

Odds to Win: +2800

Verdict:  DARK HORSE!

I know, I know, how can I think a Scandinavian team has a shot at winning?  Don’t sleep on this squad… they’re ranked higher than Germany and have a history of good performances at the Euro, including a championship in 1992.

Denmark has established a surprising capability to score, solid defense, and ability to compete with top teams.  Their rankings aren’t as skewed by wins over weak opponents; they’ve beat or drawn with legit teams in qualifying.  Will they win the Euro 2020?  Doubtful, but they will go farther than expected.  I favor them to secure a strong second place finish in Group B behind Belgium, so they’ll have a decent chance to win at least their first elimination match.   

I’m also setting my sights on the 47^th edition of the Copa América tournament, which unfortunately is scheduled to overlap the Euro quite closely.  Stay tuned for some insights into this equally exciting international soccer competition!