HWCI EURO Pool Update

[Dailies: 20-21-22-23]

NOT MANY SURPRISES IN THE ROUND OF 16
Slyelf in 1st as six get 15 of 16 R16 teams correct; all 49 entries still alive

CERRITOS TENNIS CENTER, CA (smt) - Was it so predictable? Everyone seemed to know F2-Portugal, F3-France, and F4-Germany would make the Round of 16. But a wild ride to get there with GER six minutes from being eliminated. Of course, D1-England would win their group. But with two lackluster 1-0 wins and scoring just two goals? It seems the only real surprises were D4-Czech Rep and A3-Wales making the cut. Could be the strongest Round of 16 we've seen.

A2-Italy, B3-Belgium, and C1-Netherlands won their group with max of 9 points while D1-England and E2-Sweden won to get to 7 pts. A4-Switzerland and D2-Croatia each won 3-1 to secure their R16 spot while B1-Denmark routed B4-Russia 4-1 to claim 2nd on goal differential over B2-Finland, who missed the cut. C3-Austria beat C2-Ukraine 1-0 to take 2nd but UKR still snuck in as the last 3rd place team. Power teams needing results got them as a fun E1-Spain routed E4-Slovakia 5-0 (SVK's GD got hammered and missed the cut), F4-Germany had to rally twice against F1-Hungary (2-2 draw), and F2-Portugal got 2 PKs from Ronaldo to tie F1-France 2-2 to advance (though POR would have had advanced if they lost by a few as long as HUN didn't win... but HUN was leading for most of the match).

The only group winner that was a surprise was SWE as ESP finished 2nd. CZE was the lowest ranked team (#40) to make the R16 as the other 15 were ranked #24 or better. The lowest ranked teams did well with FIN (#54) winning their first match (along with SVK, the only two teams not to advance when winning their first match) and C4-North Macedonia (#62) playing well and scoring in their first two matches and unfortunate not to pick up draws. The three powerhouses in Group F all advanced as expected... but with HUN tying FRA, GER and POR both needed results and FRA needed help to win the group. Last time, POR won the Euro by going the 3rd place route and will try to do again (losing head-to-head tiebreaker to GER for 2nd) (both 3rd place in Group F).

Amazingly, six entries got 15 of the 16 R16 correct and 23 got 14/16 correct. Even MK still got 11 right. Overall, Slyelf got 25 of the 36 round robin matches correct while Wolverine1 only got 13 (but he did 14 R16 teams correct but not enough to get out of a tie for last with 55 pts with MK). Everyone else got at least 16 matches correct. While all 49 entries got BEL, ENG, ESP, and NED advancing, just 13 got CZE and 18 WAL. Then other than AUT (32 had them), the other 9 were picked by at least 40 entries. All 7 teams picked to win it all and all 9 to make the Final are still alive.

After the Group Stage, Slyelf is first with 70 points with FrankfromSeattle second with 68 pts. Forza Roma and NoFixing are tied for 3rd (67). Carseroni got just 19 group matches correct but got 15 R16 teams to move into a tie for 7th (64).

More importantly, there are 32,768 possible outcomes and all 49 entries have a chance to still finish in the top 4 money spots (to be revealed later) and 43 40 of them still have a chance to win the pool. Slyelf does have the best chance to win the pool (15.5%) and win money (41.9%). With all the top teams still alive, unless you picked exactly like someone above you (like my Futbol Fabone Twelf (41st-T, 57) which had FRA over POR in final like 4 others and can only win 4th), your sleeper pick can win you money. Although not foolproof, I tend to believe the %s since both of my picks are 2 of the 6 that can't win the pool (Glory to the Heroes (44th-T, 56) can only win 2nd). Sigh...

We are now on Twitter (@HWCI_Pools) and Discord for discussion or questions. Please follow! I will post using #hwcincaa mini-updates during the day so you can follow without being on Twitter (and if you are, please use #hwcincaa). Please join our Facebook HWCI Soccer Pool Group or post comments on our blog.

I'll be doing daily matchday updates on our Blog and re-posted on Twitter. These updates will be every few days and emailed out. Everyone can view their pick and bracket by clicking the "Pick" link in the standings next to their nickname or the picks page. If you want to know who everyone is, the Who's Who in the Pool is now available.

Ins & Outs - Goals (36 matches): 94 (2.61/match) [Own: 8 (1-TURvITA 53' {gw}, 10-POLvSVK 18', 12-GERvFRA 20' {gw}, 24-PORvGER 35', 24-PORvGER 39' {2}, 28-FINvBEL 74' {gw}, 33-SVKvESP 30' {gw}, 33-SVKvESP 71' {2}), Subs: 6 (4-BEL 27', 6-AUT 78', 6-AUT 89', 16-BEL 70', 33-ESP 67', 36-GER 84'), 90+: 3 (11-POR +2, 13-WAL +5, 34-SWE +4 {gw}), Extra Time: -]... Scoring First: 26-2-6 [2 Nil-Nil ties (9-ESPvSWE, 20-ENGvSCO); 16-DEN, 24-POR]... Leading at Half: 18-1-4 (13 ties; 16-DEN)... Shutout: 22 [1-TUR, 2-DEN, 4-RUS, 7-CRO, 8-SCO, 9-ESP, 9-SWE, 11-HUN, 12-GER, 15-FIN, 13-TUR (2), 14-SUI, 17-AUT, 21-SVK, 20-ENG, 20-SCO (2), 26-WAL, 29-MKD, 30-UKR, 28-FIN (2), 32-CZE, 33-SVK (2)]... PK: 8/14 [3-den (s) 74', 11-POR 87', 14-wal (h) 61', 18-mkd (s) 57', 18-ukr (s) 84', 17-NED 11', 21-SWE 77', 19-CZE, 22-esp (p) 58', 27-RUS 70', 33-esp (s) 12' {2}, 35-POR 31' {2}, 35-FRA 45'+2, 35-POR 60' {3}]... PSO: -... Red Card (GF/GA): 2 (10-POL 2Y (0/1) 62', 26-WAL R (0/0) 55')... Multiple Goals: 10 [Lukaku 2 (4-BEL), Schick 2 (8-CZE), Ronaldo 2 (11-POR), Locatelli 2 (14-ITA), Shaqiri 2 (25-SUI), Wijnaldum 2 (29-NED), Forsberg 2 (34-SWE), Lewandowski 2 (34-POL), Benzema 2 (35-FRA), Ronaldo 2 (35-POR) {2}]... Zero SOG (Shots): 4 [1-TUR (3), 9-SWE (4), 21-SVK (10), 33-SVK (3) {2}]... Goal Line Tech: 0 (-)... VAR (-Reversal(Taken Away), +Reversal(Added), =Confirmed, xNo Call): 12 [3-SUI xOff+{g-} 85', 12-FRA xOff+{g-} 85', 15-FIN xOff+{g-} 3', 14-ITA xHB+{g-} 19', 18-MKD xHB+{pk+DEN} 80', 17-AUT xFoul+{pk+NED} 8', 19-CRO xFoul+{pk+CZE} 33', 22-ESP Off-{g+} 25', 22-POL xFoul+{pk+ESP} 55', 28-BEL xOff+{g-} 65', 33-SVK xFoul+{pk+ESP} 9', 35-FRA Off-{g+} 47']... 63%+ Poss: 8 [3-DENvFIN (64) L, 5-NEDvUKR (63) W, 9-ESPvSWE (75) D, 11-PORvHUN (65) W, 22-ESPvPOL (69) D, 26-ITAvWAL (64) W, 31-CROvSCO (64) W, 36-GERvHUN (70)]... 20+ Shots (S/SOG/G): 5 [1-ITAvTUR (24/8/2+og)) W, 3-DENvFIN (23/6/0) L, 16-DENvBEL (22/6/1) L {2}, 25-SUIvTUR (23/10/3) W, 26-ITAvWAL (23/6/1) W]... Breaks: 1 [3-DENvFIN (Injury) 43' (90 min)]... Home Teams: 13-7-4 [3-DEN, 4-RUS, 8-SCO, 11-HUN, 12-GER, 16-DEN (2), 31-SCO (2)]...

Qualification (x-Advance, y-Group Winner, z-Elim): x-ITA (A) (14-W)... x-BEL (B) (16-W), y-NED (C) (17-W), z-MKD (C) (18-L & 17-NED W) | y-ITA (A) (26-W), x-WAL (A) (GD), z-TUR (25-L)... x-AUT (C) (30-W)... y-BEL (B) (28-W), x-DEN (B) (27-W+2 & 28-FIN L), x-SUI (A) (27-DEN W), x-CZE (D) (27-DEN W), x-ENG (D) (27-DEN W), x-SWE (E) (27-DEN W), x-FRA (F) (27-DEN W), z-RUS (B) (GD)... y-ENG (D) (32-W), x-CRO (D) (31-W), z-SCO (D) (31-L)... y-SWE (E) (34-W), x-ESP (E) (33-W), x-UKR (C) (33-SVK L (GD)), z-SVK (E) (33-L (GD)), z-POL (E) (34-L)... y-FRA (F) (35-D & 36-GER D), x-GER (F) (36-D), x-POR (F) (35-D), z-HUN (F) (36-D), z-FIN (B) (36-GER D)...

Group Standings (17-24):

 # Gp Tm  W-L-D Pt   GD GF  Gp Stage Head-to-Head [=Tie/1st/2nd/3rd] {DP}
--------------------------- ---------------------------------------------
   1A ITA 3-0-0  9 ( +7  7)
   1C NED 3-0-0  9 ( +6  8)
   1B BEL 3-0-0  9 ( +6  7)
   1E SWE 2-0-1  7 ( +2  4)
   1D ENG 2-0-1  7 ( +2  2)
   2C AUT 2-1-0  6 ( +1  4)
   2E ESP 1-0-2  5 ( +5  6)
   1F FRA 1-0-2  5 ( +1  4)
   3F POR 1-1-1  4 ( +1  7) [0-1-0 (-2 2)] GER [2]
   2F GER 1-1-1  4 ( +1  6) [1-0-0 (+2 4)] POR [1]
   2D CRO 1-1-1  4 ( +1  4) [0-0-1 ( 0 1)] CZE [=]
   3D CZE 1-1-1  4 ( +1  3) [0-0-1 ( 0 1)] CRO [=]
   2A WAL 1-1-1  4 ( +1  3) [0-0-1 ( 0 1)] SUI [=]
   3A SUI 1-1-1  4 ( -1  4) [0-0-1 ( 0 1)] WAL [=]
   2B DEN 1-2-0  3 ( +1  5) [1-1-0 (+2 4)] FIN-RUS [1]
   3C UKR 1-2-0  3 ( -1  4)
---
17 3B FIN 1-2-0  3 ( -2  1) [1-1-0 ( 0 1)] DEN-RUS [2]
18 4B RUS 1-2-0  3 ( -5  2) [1-1-0 (-2 2)] DEN-FIN [3] {5}
19 3E SVK 1-2-0  3 ( -5  2) {6}
20 4F HUN 0-1-2  2 ( -3  3)
21 4E POL 0-2-1  1 ( -2  4)
22 4D SCO 0-2-1  1 ( -4  1)
23 4C MKD 0-3-0  0 ( -6  2)
24 4A TUR 0-3-0  0 ( -7  1)

Bits 'n Bobs - all 9 teams in '16 who won their first match made the Round of 16 -- there were 10 winners this year and 8 of 10 qualified (FIN, SVK)... tiebreakers:: head-to-head, GD, GF, Wins, Lower Disciplinary Pts, Position in European Qualifier rankings... Disciplinary points: 3 points for a red card (either directly or as a result of receiving two yellow cards in one match) and one point for a yellow card... in the three dual hosting groups, RUS will have to travel to face DEN, SCO traveled to ENG and tied 0-0, and HUN will have to travel to GER... ITA is 25-0-5 in last 30 matches (last loss Sept 2018 vPOR) and has not allowed a goal in 11 straight (while scoring 32)... SUI's Steven Zuber had 3 assists (which is a hard stat to find for some reason)... BEL has scored in 33 straight matches... DEN has "just" 16 shots but scored 4 times (they had 22+ shots each in the first two matches but lost both)... FIN had zero shots in the first half (7 for match)... DEN is first team in Euro history to advance to R16 after losing first two matches... RUS has allowed at least one goal in 10 of their past 11 Euro matches (2nd match vFIN)... SCO became the last team to score in the tourney... SWE scored 82 seconds in, 2nd fastest ever (earlier, DEN scored 99 seconds in vBEL)... like UKR before them, POL rallied from 2-0 to tie, but, also like UKR, lost 3-2... ESP's 5-goal win tied the largest at a Euro match... ESP missed their 2nd PK of tourney and have missed 5 straight... ESP's 3rd goal by a sub was the first substitute goal since Match #16 (BEL)... SVK had zero shots in the 1st half (3 for the match, none on goal)... ESP had "just" 62% possession (75% and 69% the previous two matches)... SWE's 90'+4 goal was the first stoppage time goal since Match #13 (WAL)... ITA and ENG have not allowed a goal yet... DEN & SCO are only teams to lose twice at home... Budapest went out in style with 54,886 fans in attendance for PORvFRA... Home teams continued to excel going 5-1-1 this round (13-7-4 overall) - ENG will be at home for their R16 match... all 48 who picked ITA to make the R16 also have them winning their R16 match... no one has AUT winning their R16 match... two lost TUR and one lost POL in their Final Four... for the 3rd matches, Slyelf and MK got 11 of 12 correct while Wolverine1 only got 4 of 12 correct... entries averaged 7.8 wins for 3rd matches which was 2 better than the 2nd matches (5.8) (1st matches averaged 6.6)... entries averaged 20.1 wins (no one got more than 21 in '16) and 13.6 R16 teams (no one got more than 13 in '16)... Belgiumfinallywinsit Big Blue and Bobby Cee Racer are tied for 26th (60) but can't win the pool; MK and Wolverine1 is tied for last but could win the pool...

On Sunday, 28 got SUI right and 45 ITA while 48 got 3 points for ITA in the R16 and 18 WAL.; 25 went 2-0 while DenMarkMyTerritory (44th-T) went 0-2; 17 got both ITA and WAL making the R16 while 32 got just one; eight got the full 8 points today (ITA, SUI wins x 1 = 2; ITA, WAL in R16 x 3 = 6) while DenMarkMyTerritory only got 3; Footballsack (6th, 65) is still in the lead... on Monday, 48 got NED, 10 got AUT, 33 DEN, and 48 got BEL; Five teams from Groups A/B/C (D/E/F R16 pts awarded when their matches are complete) made the Round of 16: all 49 got BEL & NED, 47 DEN, 40 SUI, 32 AUT; 6 got all four matches correct while Wolverine1 went 0-4; 26 got all 5 R16 teams today while 5 got just 3 teams; 5 got 19 points today while yesterday's leader Footballsack got just 11 pts (to fall to tie for 20th (34 pts)). Slyelf moves into 1st place (41 pts) with Forza Roma second (39); my second entry Glory to the Heroes (44th-T, 56) is now in last all by itself with 28 pts... on Tuesday, 37 got CRO right and 47 got ENG; all 49 had ENG making the knockout stage while 46 had CRO and 13 had CZE; 36 got both matches correct while Saharm17 (33rd-T, 59) missed both; 11 got all 3 Group D teams in the R16 while Fantasy (14th-T, 63) only got one; overall, ten got the full 11 points while Fantasy only got 4; Forza Roma now leads... on Wednesday, 45 picked ESP, 23 SWE, 19 the POR-FRA tie, and Fantasy picked the GER-HUN tie; all 49 got ESP into the R16, 48 FRA, 47 SWE, 46 POR, 44 GER, and 42 UKR; 9 got 3 right while two got none (Rainman (26th-T, 60), Big Blue (26th-T)); 33 got all 6 R16 teams correct (impressive!) while two still got 4 of 6 (MK, Fabio (37th-T, 58)); five got 21 points today while Fabio only got 14...

Gotta love watching side-by-side matches on the ESPN app on OLED TV...
Scott